Coming to terms with the end

Ludo Thierry

Some encouraging Ipsos Mori numbers demonstrate the wider UK population is, increasingly, anticipating the ‘union’ not surviving in current form even into the medium term. Link and snippets below:

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-confidence-future-union-much-lower-it-was-five-years-ago

New Ipsos MORI research shows that people in Britain have become less confident that the UK will continue to exist in its present form in the medium term.

Key findings:

• 72% of British adults think the UK will exist in its current form in one year’s time, a similar figure to when Ipsos MORI last asked this question in 2014.

• But people are split on whether the UK will exist in its current form in five years’ time, with 42% saying it will and 44% that it won’t. In 2014 the figures were 61% saying it will and 27% that it won’t.

• Half think it won’t exist in its current form in ten years’ time, with 50% saying this, up from 34% in 2014. And 51% think it won’t exist in its current form in twenty years’ time – up from 38% in 2014.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “While no one would expect public confidence in the Union’s future to be higher now than it was five years ago, what’s striking is just how much it’s dropped. These findings show that the British public are now much more divided in their expectations of the Union’s future than they were in 2014, when the Union’s future was under intense debate with Scotland just three months away from an independence referendum. With independence a key faultline in Scotland’s election debate, the findings will be concerning for those who want Scotland to remain in the Union, while those campaigning for an independent Scotland will hope that this is a continuing trend.”

The more the ‘man+woman in the street’ south of the border come to accept that the ‘union’ game is up – the more straightforward and clinical the Indy negotiations become. This more informed climate in advance of Treaty negotiations will be beneficial for the populations on either side of the border (‘harder’ or ‘softer’ border depending on negotiations/agreements in due course).

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

2 thoughts on “Coming to terms with the end

  1. Hi Ludo, hope you are well? Good to see you are keeping busy here, trawling the the news to find Scottish positive news is a real task, it’s most appreciated. And I see John has even given you a pay rise from sixpence less than nothing to SFA – congratulation, a good promotion! My iPad hasn’t been letting me comment for a while, but things look to be fairly normal now (I’ll find out soon!).

    This is an interesting survey, reflecting ‘public confidence’ – I do finding a lot of polling questions rather strange, and I wonder at the value, for interpretation, of asking people what they think will happen in the future as opposed to what the hope will happen in the future. At least there are a lot more people aware that the union may be dissolved in the near future, so it won’t be a shock when it happens.

    I posted some you tube videos over on Prof Murphy’s Taxresearch blog, but they might be of some interest here if anyone’s in a contemplative state of mind:

    Professor Dorling – lecture on Brexit and the end of the British empire.

    In his lecture he takes Interesting look at geographical features of the distribution in Leave/Remain votes in the EU referendum, raw numbers show it wasn’t the region in the north voting leave that swung the vote, it’s very much middle class southern Englanders. His look at the lack of historical education on the British empire and view of media misinformation is interesting.

    I’m relating this to the next two videos,,,

    Like

  2. So, I thought I would watch the first here to see what a reasonable take might be on the media frenzy around Corbyn’s supposed anti-semitism, and found Gabor a fascinating person:

    Gabor Maté on the misuse of anti-Semitism and why fewer Jews identify with Israel

    And on russiagate

    Quotations from Garbor Maté:
    “Don’t be afraid to be disillusioned. It is better to be disillusioned than it is to be illusioned”
    “Don’t be afraid to be disidentified. Don’t identify with something outside yourself to the extent you become uncritical and blind”

    I think we should all be careful not to buy into an ideology to the extent we cannot accept criticism of that ideology, as a general rule.

    But isn’t it interesting how the ‘Russians interfered’ rhetoric is drummed up every now and then mostly over the past few years, are we trying to find outside excuses for our own flaws in society (hence the brexit vote). From a Scottish perspective, do we tend to be complacent (as a society, that likely includes few that will be reading this blog!) because we can blame the outside agency of Westminster for all our woes. Well, England and Westminster is to blame for the biggest of our woes, their rule, and I think those people that support independence want that independence for positive change – so have already been disillusioned – the question is how to get the rest of our society to also embrace disillusionment?

    Strong comments about how the media misleads us, from all these videos, and the idea that people still buy into the myth that is Empire is my take – instead of identifying as individuals they identify self as the British state. They need to be disillusioned then to adopt some self belief. Plenty have been disillusioned over Brexit, but there should be more.

    Note how voter apathy probably had a very big effect (first video) on the EU referendum – a low turnout in any vote benefits the two main parties, always, which is why they try and make politics as toxic and confusing as possible. Keep getting told you are fed up of hearing about Brexit, then have the ‘news’ repeat repeat repeat brexit news? Same with the independence rhetoric, the media and politicians try to get people sick of it, to encourage low turnout. We all love hearing about independence of course, but it’s to scare off those not quite disillusioned enough.

    So go out and VOTE, vote in the GE, vote for the SNP whether you have to hold your nose or not, because that will be the only thing that MIGHT bring about change. If you don’t vote, we have no chance, we will have sat on our laurels and allowed whatever might be imposed on us. Westminster election is not a Holyrood election – the only time Scotland gets wholehearted representation of any kind in that place is when SNP are there in numbers.

    But, of course, don’t be under the illusion that our own domestic politics won’t need sorted out, otherwise we could end up down that same toxic neoliberal path as the uk went down, after we get our independence (or even before). Expect to be disillusioned – but get the independence first. Vote.

    Liked by 1 person

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