Tag: uk-politics

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Fifth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead and Reform is eating the Cons and Labour

johnrobertson834

Today, from Deltapoll, based on data collected from 1 532, on 30th December 2024 to 3rd January, we see: The Scottish subset of 133 has: A sub poll of only 133 has clear limitations in terms of reliability but this is the latest of 5 [c800 subjects in total] all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK and way behind the SNP. Source: https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Deltapoll-MoS_250106.pdf On December 23rd 2024, from Opinium, based on data collected from 1 537, on 18-12 December 2024, we see: The Scottish subset of 110 has: … Continue reading Fifth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead and Reform is eating the Cons and Labour

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The pup sellers of North Britain – musings on promises of Union reform.

johnrobertson834

By stewartb – a long read As 2024 ends, we also leave behind the ‘honeymoon period’ (sic) of the new Westminster Labour government.  A time for casting minds back to past promises and for musing on prospects for ‘change’. In Westminster, the Labour government recently announced appointments to the House of Lords. These were well trailed. From Labour List (June 21, 2023): ‘New peer plan raises questions about Labour’s Lords abolition intentions’ – ‘comments by a source close to the leadership in the Times calling Lords reform “hardly mission critical” to the first three years of a Labour government will … Continue reading The pup sellers of North Britain – musings on promises of Union reform.

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“Scotland is now a dysfunctional example of failed devolution funded by English taxpayers”

johnrobertson834

Anonymous Reform UK party ? Here are some actual snippets from Rupert Lowe’s speech at their 2024 Reform UK party conference , he is one of their new MP’s, from 2024 GE, for the constituency of Great Yarmouth, England. (Currently all 5 of their MP’s are elected in ENGLAND , one being a Tory defector, as in 30p Lee). So one or two snippets that Rupert said in his conference speech: “Defund the monopolistic malign BBC” (That’s the same BBC that Nigel Farage has frequently appeared in , on BBC QT as a member of the BBC QT panel, many many times actually, as has Richard Tice , but Richard Tice has also appeared on BBC ‘Politics Live’ as has … Continue reading “Scotland is now a dysfunctional example of failed devolution funded by English taxpayers”

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Fourth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

johnrobertson834

Today from Opinium based on data collected from 1 537, on 18-12 December 2024, we see: The Scottish subset of 110 has: A sub poll of only 110 has clear limitations in terms of reliability but this is the latest of 4 [c600 subjects in total] all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK and way behind the SNP. Source: https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/VI-2024-12-18-Observer-Data-Tables-211224.xlsx In the December 12th Find Out Now, Westminster poll of 2 659, we saw: The Scottish subset of 223, has: Source: https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/ Only December 8th,  I noted: From Find Out Now on … Continue reading Fourth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

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If you are a Labour councillor in Scotland and do not vote with the Tories against the SNP then you will  be suspended but if there are allegations of “sexual harassment” then no worries your job is safe

johnrobertson834

Anonymous Apparently “Labour in Scotland received Cammy Day complaint ‘almost two years’ before suspension”. The complaint being a “sexual harassment complaint” against the Edinburgh Labour council leader Cammy Day, that is the same Edinburgh Labour council that suspended two of it’s Labour councillors for not voting with the Tories. So if you are a Labour councillor in Scotland and you do not vote with the Tories against the SNP then you will get suspended, however if there are allegations against you of “sexual harassment” as a Labour councillor and leader, then no worries your job and place in Labour is safe, well that is until someone exposes that scandalous news. This is the same Labour party whose so called leader in Scotland … Continue reading If you are a Labour councillor in Scotland and do not vote with the Tories against the SNP then you will  be suspended but if there are allegations of “sexual harassment” then no worries your job is safe

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Many in Scotland will soon wish that they had voted YES in 2014

johnrobertson834

By Anonymous I think this “notion” on the SNP increasing their lead over Labour in a succession of polls may just continue. Labour , since taking power in July, then announced measures that they declared would be “painful” for many of us , but the purpose behind these “painful” actions were apparently, to implement a plan for them , as a government, to then deliver long term growth. So as many now suffer for what Labour have stated is for the ‘greater’ good i.e. Growth , then we hear today that the: “UK economy unexpectedly shrinks for second month in a row“ “Official figures showed a 0.1% drop, despite expectations that … Continue reading Many in Scotland will soon wish that they had voted YES in 2014

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Third sub-poll reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

johnrobertson834

In today’s Find Out Now, Westminster poll of 2 659, we see: The Scottish subset of 223, has: Source: https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/ A sub poll of only 223, has clear limitations in terms of reliability but, this is the latest of 3 all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK. Only 4 days ago,  I noted: From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNPv39%, … Continue reading Third sub-poll reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

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Might the Sunday Times Holyrood/Independence poll result today have been even better had they not weighted the sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in the 2014 referendum vote?

johnrobertson834

In 2014, voters aged 16-41 were more likely than not to vote Yes whereas voters above 41 were more likely to vote No. More than ten years later, half a million predominantly No voters have passed away leaving the electoral roll and a similar amount of predominantly Yes have joined it. Despite this many pollsters for Scottish elections tend to adjust, ‘weight’, their sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in 2014. Critics suggest this skews the results and point to the Yes leads and better SNP figures in those polls which do not do so. Norstat for the Sunday … Continue reading Might the Sunday Times Holyrood/Independence poll result today have been even better had they not weighted the sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in the 2014 referendum vote?

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Latest full Holyrood poll confirms SNP surge and Labour collapse as Sarwar fails to inspire

johnrobertson834

From the full Holyrood Norstat poll for the Sunday Times, on 7 December, only days after two Westminster sub-polls suggesting an SNP recovery. and only 4 months after the Labour surge in the July General Election: Constituency Regional Based on the above, the seat projection is: This gives the SNP/Greens a 66 to 63 majority. I’d have thought that 5% might give Alba 1 MSP. Interestingly, putting an end the 2 child benefit cap did not seem to be a big vote winner whereas restoring the winter fuel allowance, extra for the NHS and raising tax thresholds were – there’s … Continue reading Latest full Holyrood poll confirms SNP surge and Labour collapse as Sarwar fails to inspire

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Two sub-polls in December now saying same thing – SNP pulling away from Labour with 18% and 15% leads

johnrobertson834

Two days ago, I noted: From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNPv39%, Labour 21%, Cons 13%, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems at 8%. If repeated in May 2026, this could give SNP an overall majority. Early days I know but still good to get this kind of wee boost. https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-4th-dec-2024/ The above 18% lead is much larger than previous sub-polls and, more so, than in ‘full’ Scottish polls. However, the latter, while having … Continue reading Two sub-polls in December now saying same thing – SNP pulling away from Labour with 18% and 15% leads