Tag: uk-politics

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Might the Sunday Times Holyrood/Independence poll result today have been even better had they not weighted the sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in the 2014 referendum vote?

johnrobertson834

In 2014, voters aged 16-41 were more likely than not to vote Yes whereas voters above 41 were more likely to vote No. More than ten years later, half a million predominantly No voters have passed away leaving the electoral roll and a similar amount of predominantly Yes have joined it. Despite this many pollsters for Scottish elections tend to adjust, ‘weight’, their sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in 2014. Critics suggest this skews the results and point to the Yes leads and better SNP figures in those polls which do not do so. Norstat for the Sunday … Continue reading Might the Sunday Times Holyrood/Independence poll result today have been even better had they not weighted the sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in the 2014 referendum vote?

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Latest full Holyrood poll confirms SNP surge and Labour collapse as Sarwar fails to inspire

johnrobertson834

From the full Holyrood Norstat poll for the Sunday Times, on 7 December, only days after two Westminster sub-polls suggesting an SNP recovery. and only 4 months after the Labour surge in the July General Election: Constituency Regional Based on the above, the seat projection is: This gives the SNP/Greens a 66 to 63 majority. I’d have thought that 5% might give Alba 1 MSP. Interestingly, putting an end the 2 child benefit cap did not seem to be a big vote winner whereas restoring the winter fuel allowance, extra for the NHS and raising tax thresholds were – there’s … Continue reading Latest full Holyrood poll confirms SNP surge and Labour collapse as Sarwar fails to inspire

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Two sub-polls in December now saying same thing – SNP pulling away from Labour with 18% and 15% leads

johnrobertson834

Two days ago, I noted: From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNPv39%, Labour 21%, Cons 13%, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems at 8%. If repeated in May 2026, this could give SNP an overall majority. Early days I know but still good to get this kind of wee boost. https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-4th-dec-2024/ The above 18% lead is much larger than previous sub-polls and, more so, than in ‘full’ Scottish polls. However, the latter, while having … Continue reading Two sub-polls in December now saying same thing – SNP pulling away from Labour with 18% and 15% leads

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Cap on UK political donations to limit foreign influence would help SNP limit ‘foreign’ influence too

johnrobertson834

From the Guardian today: Caps on political donations are being considered by ministers as part of sweeping reforms to the UK electoral system. Labour is examining proposals to limit how much individuals and companies can donate to political parties as part of an effort to tighten the rules around money in UK politics. In a report to be published in the coming weeks, the Institute for Public Policy Research will recommend that ministers limit individual and corporate donations to political parties to £100,000 a year. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/02/government-may-cap-uk-political-donations-to-limit-foreign-influence If implemented, the above move would be driven by Labour, Con and Lib Dem anxiety … Continue reading Cap on UK political donations to limit foreign influence would help SNP limit ‘foreign’ influence too

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Six sub-polls suggest modest SNP recovery, growing Reform threat and ongoing crisis for the others leading to good result in the constituencies for the SNP

johnrobertson834

From Opinium with sub-polls of around 160 Scots 18+years of age, on 29 and 13 (in brackets) November, 31 and 18 October (in brackets) support is (was): This suggests ongoing crises for Scottish Labour and Cons, LD and Greens with steady modest recovery of the SNP and growing support for Reform eating away at Cons and Labour. Polls a few days earlier by More in Common and Find our Now tell a similar, if worse story for Labour and slightly better one for the Cons. All six polls put the Greens in danger of serious loss post their split with … Continue reading Six sub-polls suggest modest SNP recovery, growing Reform threat and ongoing crisis for the others leading to good result in the constituencies for the SNP

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Othering is a constant tactic Labour choose to deploy,

johnrobertson834

Anonymous It is unfortunate for both her and her party that she, Ms Baillie, as one who is ‘afflicted’ by excess weight , is then , in her role as Labour’s Health spokesperson, the one who communicates the message of: “Weight-loss jabs, alongside changes to diet and exercise, have the potential to be a game-changer in the fight against diabetes and cardiovascular disease“ Physician heal thyself or being a Labour MSP and Labour’s Health spokesperson keep telling others to do that which you yourself are obviously both failing to do or even attempting to do. Baillie delivering this message on weight is like an existing chain smoker being … Continue reading Othering is a constant tactic Labour choose to deploy,

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Reverse Trojan Horse – Why the SNP and Labour should do a coalition deal in 2026 for independence by 2030

johnrobertson834

When I first saw the above, my first reaction was: ‘DAFT, DAFT and…….DAFT.’ Then something flashed from the nether regions into the front of my brain, while walking the dog. First, some facts you’ll need: From a FindOutNow poll for the Alba Party on 16-23 October, 25% of Labour voters would vote YES in a second independence referendum. From a YouGov poll on 29 August to 3 September a majority of Labour voters 47%/40% would vote YES if independence meant re-joining the EU. Leaving aside their leadership, most Labour voters share similar positions with the SNP, on taxation, benefits, health, … Continue reading Reverse Trojan Horse – Why the SNP and Labour should do a coalition deal in 2026 for independence by 2030

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Latest poll – Labour collapse and Reform almost catch Tories

johnrobertson834

I’m just seeing the full data tables from the Norstat/Sunday Times poll on 1 November 2024 which had YES/No tied, so improved from a 3% NO lead on August 22, 2024. 22 August 2024 poll by same sample in brackets below, before death of Alba leader Alex Salmond (12 October) and first Labour budget (30 October). Westminster (likely voters excluding undecided): Holyrood Constituency Holyrood Regional In the space of around 5 weeks after the last Norstat poll using the same sampling technique, we can see the clear effect of Labour’s early actions in a major collapse in their support in … Continue reading Latest poll – Labour collapse and Reform almost catch Tories

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More good ideas for winning the voters round to the pro-independence parties including honesty about the England team

johnrobertson834

I’m indebted to one of the many Ann Onymouses who comment on TuS, for sharing this with me. Earlier today, I wrote: The SNP can win again if they learn from the US Democrat’s defeat – don’t respond to opposition ‘facts’, frame the argument as strength and do not move to the right as that only convinces voters that the right has better ideas https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/11/18/the-snp-can-win-again-if-they-learn-from-the-us-democrats-defeat-dont-respond-to-opposition-facts-frame-the-argument-as-strength-and-do-not-move-to-the-right-as-that-only-convinces-voters-t/ In essence, this argues that the leadership should ignore the flak, like Trump, dismiss it all as biased, present as strong and caring, frame the argument around the values that the majority will vote for … Continue reading More good ideas for winning the voters round to the pro-independence parties including honesty about the England team

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U-turning on Trump – Why was John Swinney singled out by the BBC in this manner?

johnrobertson834

By Anonymous Yesterday MSM Monitor tweeted this observation that he saw on the BBC website via various headlines by the BBC upon Labour & also on the FM John Swinney in response to Trump winning. MSM Monitor Tweeted this: “Why was John Swinney singled out by the BBC in this manner”? “Welsh FM Eluned Morgan once described Trump as “off the wall crazy”. Not mentioned in her headline” “Keir Starmer once called Trump’s comments “absolutely repugnant”. Not mentioned in his headline” “Starmer and Morgan are also referred to by their title. Our FM is referred to by his surname” Then … Continue reading U-turning on Trump – Why was John Swinney singled out by the BBC in this manner?