Tag: uk-politics

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8th sub-poll in a row confirms SNP lead of 15% to 20% over Labour

johnrobertson834

From a YouGov poll today, with data collected on 19-20 January 2024 and based on a sample of 2 466 aged 18+: with a Scottish sub-poll of 215: Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51428-voting-intention-lab-26-ref-24-con-22-19-20-jan-2025 Previously, 7 comparable sub-polls, staring on 2/12/2024, produced these averages: These sub-polls have the obvious disadvantage, on their own, of being too small for reliability but, in contrast to larger Scotland-only polls of around 1 000, of not being weighted according to the 2014 referendum result which seems likely to be skewing the results in favour of Unionist parties. This 8th sub-poll confirms the stability of the SNP support at … Continue reading 8th sub-poll in a row confirms SNP lead of 15% to 20% over Labour

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Averages from seven ‘2014 bias-free polls’ have SNP 15 points ahead, Labour stuck, Cons in trouble, Reform a wee worry and Lib Dems pleased to hang on to 5th place

johnrobertson834

Based on the last 7 polls with a breakdown sub-poll for Scotland, the averages are as above in the table. This is based on quite small and, on their own, unreliable sub-samples of between 100 and 200 Scots, 18+, but taken together they add up to around the 1 000 mark, required for a reasonable survey. Almost every Scotland-only poll has its sample adjusted to match the 2014, 55 No / 45 Yes, ratio, reducing, it seem probable, the SNP/Green support. At 35%, for this Westmnister poll the SNP would be well down on their 2021 figure of 47.7% but … Continue reading Averages from seven ‘2014 bias-free polls’ have SNP 15 points ahead, Labour stuck, Cons in trouble, Reform a wee worry and Lib Dems pleased to hang on to 5th place

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SNP pull further ahead in 6th sub-poll not changed to suit 2014 result, to leave troubled Cons and Labour seriously weakened by Reform and Lib Dems

johnrobertson834

From Find Out Now on January 8th 2025, with 2 076: The Scottish subset of 176 has This is the 6th sub-poll, with a small but unweighted by the 2014 referendum result sample, with a cumulative total of around 1 000 saying something similar. In Scotland, the SNP looks secure at around 35%, around 20% clear of the opposition, and may take nearly all of the constituencies, other than a few Lib Dem refuges. The Cons look in dire trouble and with their vote and Labour’s, split with Reform and the Lib Dems, their Borders and North-East strongholds could fall … Continue reading SNP pull further ahead in 6th sub-poll not changed to suit 2014 result, to leave troubled Cons and Labour seriously weakened by Reform and Lib Dems

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Fifth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead and Reform is eating the Cons and Labour

johnrobertson834

Today, from Deltapoll, based on data collected from 1 532, on 30th December 2024 to 3rd January, we see: The Scottish subset of 133 has: A sub poll of only 133 has clear limitations in terms of reliability but this is the latest of 5 [c800 subjects in total] all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK and way behind the SNP. Source: https://deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Deltapoll-MoS_250106.pdf On December 23rd 2024, from Opinium, based on data collected from 1 537, on 18-12 December 2024, we see: The Scottish subset of 110 has: … Continue reading Fifth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead and Reform is eating the Cons and Labour

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The pup sellers of North Britain – musings on promises of Union reform.

johnrobertson834

By stewartb – a long read As 2024 ends, we also leave behind the ‘honeymoon period’ (sic) of the new Westminster Labour government.  A time for casting minds back to past promises and for musing on prospects for ‘change’. In Westminster, the Labour government recently announced appointments to the House of Lords. These were well trailed. From Labour List (June 21, 2023): ‘New peer plan raises questions about Labour’s Lords abolition intentions’ – ‘comments by a source close to the leadership in the Times calling Lords reform “hardly mission critical” to the first three years of a Labour government will … Continue reading The pup sellers of North Britain – musings on promises of Union reform.

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“Scotland is now a dysfunctional example of failed devolution funded by English taxpayers”

johnrobertson834

Anonymous Reform UK party ? Here are some actual snippets from Rupert Lowe’s speech at their 2024 Reform UK party conference , he is one of their new MP’s, from 2024 GE, for the constituency of Great Yarmouth, England. (Currently all 5 of their MP’s are elected in ENGLAND , one being a Tory defector, as in 30p Lee). So one or two snippets that Rupert said in his conference speech: “Defund the monopolistic malign BBC” (That’s the same BBC that Nigel Farage has frequently appeared in , on BBC QT as a member of the BBC QT panel, many many times actually, as has Richard Tice , but Richard Tice has also appeared on BBC ‘Politics Live’ as has … Continue reading “Scotland is now a dysfunctional example of failed devolution funded by English taxpayers”

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Fourth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

johnrobertson834

Today from Opinium based on data collected from 1 537, on 18-12 December 2024, we see: The Scottish subset of 110 has: A sub poll of only 110 has clear limitations in terms of reliability but this is the latest of 4 [c600 subjects in total] all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK and way behind the SNP. Source: https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/VI-2024-12-18-Observer-Data-Tables-211224.xlsx In the December 12th Find Out Now, Westminster poll of 2 659, we saw: The Scottish subset of 223, has: Source: https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/ Only December 8th,  I noted: From Find Out Now on … Continue reading Fourth sub-poll, not distorted by sample weighting to match 2014 vote, reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

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If you are a Labour councillor in Scotland and do not vote with the Tories against the SNP then you will  be suspended but if there are allegations of “sexual harassment” then no worries your job is safe

johnrobertson834

Anonymous Apparently “Labour in Scotland received Cammy Day complaint ‘almost two years’ before suspension”. The complaint being a “sexual harassment complaint” against the Edinburgh Labour council leader Cammy Day, that is the same Edinburgh Labour council that suspended two of it’s Labour councillors for not voting with the Tories. So if you are a Labour councillor in Scotland and you do not vote with the Tories against the SNP then you will get suspended, however if there are allegations against you of “sexual harassment” as a Labour councillor and leader, then no worries your job and place in Labour is safe, well that is until someone exposes that scandalous news. This is the same Labour party whose so called leader in Scotland … Continue reading If you are a Labour councillor in Scotland and do not vote with the Tories against the SNP then you will  be suspended but if there are allegations of “sexual harassment” then no worries your job is safe

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Many in Scotland will soon wish that they had voted YES in 2014

johnrobertson834

By Anonymous I think this “notion” on the SNP increasing their lead over Labour in a succession of polls may just continue. Labour , since taking power in July, then announced measures that they declared would be “painful” for many of us , but the purpose behind these “painful” actions were apparently, to implement a plan for them , as a government, to then deliver long term growth. So as many now suffer for what Labour have stated is for the ‘greater’ good i.e. Growth , then we hear today that the: “UK economy unexpectedly shrinks for second month in a row“ “Official figures showed a 0.1% drop, despite expectations that … Continue reading Many in Scotland will soon wish that they had voted YES in 2014

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Third sub-poll reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead

johnrobertson834

In today’s Find Out Now, Westminster poll of 2 659, we see: The Scottish subset of 223, has: Source: https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/ A sub poll of only 223, has clear limitations in terms of reliability but, this is the latest of 3 all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK. Only 4 days ago,  I noted: From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNPv39%, … Continue reading Third sub-poll reinforces notion that SNP is well ahead