In today’s Find Out Now, Westminster poll of 2 659, we see:
- Com – 23%
- Lab – 26%
- Lib Dem – 11%
- Reform – 25%
- Green – 9%
The Scottish subset of 223, has:
- Con – 12%
- Lab – 23%
- LD – 5%
- Reform – 16%
- Green – 8%
- SNP – 34%
Source: https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/
A sub poll of only 223, has clear limitations in terms of reliability but, this is the latest of 3 all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK.
Only 4 days ago, I noted:
From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNPv39%, Labour 21%, Cons 13%, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems at 8%. If repeated in May 2026, this could give SNP an overall majority. Early days I know but still good to get this kind of wee boost. https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-4th-dec-2024/
The above 18% lead is much larger than previous sub-polls and, more so, than in several ‘full’ Scottish polls other than the most recent Norstat poll for the Sunday Times on 7 December. https://www.thetimes.com/article/49b721e9-6777-478a-99a6-b196fd736573?shareToken=4cd918a5746334e1e87dc80c9c19c3ac
The More in Common poll on 29 November to 2 December, with 102 Scots, which also has a much bigger SNP lead than in earlier polls, at 15% over Labour – Con 17%, Labour 19%, Lib Dems 12%, Reform 13%, SNP 34% and Greens on only 4%: https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/fnshtp12/december-2-voting-intention.xlsx
However, full polls while having more reliable sample sizes of 1-2k as opposed to 1-2 hundred, have been criticised for their samples being weighted to reflect the 2104 referendum result. This may be biasing their results in favour of Unionist parties.
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Talking-up Scotland 
I think this “notion” on the SNP increasing their lead over Labour in a succession of polls may just continue.
Labour , since taking power in July, then announced measures that they declared would be “painful” for many of us , but the purpose behind these “painful” actions were apparently, to implement a plan for them , as a government, to then deliver long term growth.
So as many now suffer for what Labour have stated is for the ‘greater’ good i.e. Growth , then we hear today that the:
“UK economy unexpectedly shrinks for second month in a row“
“Official figures showed a 0.1% drop, despite expectations that the economy would return to growth after a fall in September”.
Labour have been constantly reiterating how bad the situation is in respect to there being a deficit in money available for them , as a new government , to change things for the better, which they have blamed on the previous Tory government , but they have not sought to blame this shortfall on Brexit which was a Tory policy.
Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer (and in respect to Scotland Ian Murray too) have reinforced the message that growth in the UK economy (and Scotland) was their main mission as a UK government so that is then what they, as a government, must succeed in achieving and delivering for the UK.
Starmer stated that “he wants the UK to secure the highest sustained economic growth of the G7 group of rich nations” which I suspect will not happen as Brexit will prevent that ever being a reality.
The blame game that Labour have been utilising as a weak excuse since coming to power will not be accepted by the public as a long term response to any failures by Labour, especially via Brexit , as Labour assured us prior to the GE that they would “Make Brexit work”.
Starmer has been saying recently that he wants to have a closer relationship with the EU , but not by actually re-joining the SM or the CU , so as to his UK getting a far better trade deal with the EU , it seems that his UK will be no further forward regarding this than it was under the Tories, and what will happen with NI and Brexit ?
I think Brexit will destroy Labour as it destroyed the Tory party and that is totally down to them , as parties, in them both allowing themselves , as parties , to pander to the likes of Nigel Farage, whose rationale for supporting Brexit was to make those who fund both him and his various political parties , even more richer in what they hoped would be a future UK ripe for exploiting for their own financial gain.
The irony of course being that Reform UK, Farage’s latest party, may win subsequent seats in elections from both Labour and the Tories so that he , and those who fund him and his various parties, then get an opportunity to claim that which they have strived to obtain, and that is for them to have the political power to change things for those who need more deregulation within the UK .
Reform UK will try to implement a situation that benefits the wealthy far more than the poor within the UK , with lower taxes for the wealthy , less rules and regulations that restricts their profits and then also a new privatised healthcare system to replace the NHS within the UK where it will be a tiered based insurance system. (the more you pay the better the service).
I think many in Scotland will soon wish that they had voted YES in 2014 , because as the future within the UK begins to unfold it will surely reveal that Scotland will not be, in any shape or form, a nation that is “Better Together” with the rest of the UK, but instead , will find itself in the sad and weaker position of being a nation that is now very much Worse off as part of their UK.
Indeed the rot began for Scotland on the morning of the 19 September 2014.
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