From BBC Scotland, the above and:

Police Scotland will have to cut officer numbers to their lowest level in 23 years if it gets a “devastating” flat cash funding settlement, an oversight body has warned. The Scottish Police Authority (SPA) says recruitment would have to stop, taking officer numbers down to 15,600 – the lowest figure since 2003-04. Police Scotland is currently in line to receive a standstill budget allocation for next year from the Scottish government, but is asking for a £110m increase to maintain current staffing levels and respond to an increasing workload. The government said it delivered record levels of funding for policing this year and is discussing next year’s budget with the force. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c679p5n4q178o

This is a classic media scare story. The ‘could’ in that headline is doing a lot of work there. The SPA ‘threat’ is politics. Public safety is politically sensitive. Governments have previously provided some uplifts even when starting from tight assumptions, and the SPA itself describes pure flat cash as ‘not achievable in year’ and ‘devastating.’ This language is used to set a negotiating position.

Important context that a Year 1 journalism student knows is required even for a bare pass:

In 2011-12 , in Scotland, there were 598 crimes and offences per 10 000 population with 121 murders, down from 142, when the SNP took over in 2007-08.¹

Today, from Recorded Crime in Scotland: year ending June 2026, we see the figure has climbed from a low of 525 in the pandemic to 583 per 10 000 last year but with 49 murders.²

The latest figures for England & Wales are 680 per 10 000 population and 522 murders.³

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/documents/
2. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-year-ending-june-2026/documents/
3. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/latest

So, 583 crimes per 10 000 in Scotland and 680 in England & Wales, ratios so directly comparable, Police officer in England and Wales face 17% more crime.

Do England & Wales have, at least, 17% more officers to deal with it?

No, Scotland has 23% more officers to deal with 17% fewer crimes.

Scotland has the highest ratio of police officers per 100 000 population – 295.

England and Wales forces have a lower combined ratio 235–241.

This means Scotland has 22.8% more officers per capita than the England/Wales average.

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025
2. https://policepromotion.blog/2024/07/30/police-workforce-2024-part-1-officer-numbers-across-uk-and-ireland