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With the help of Aimee Stanton, data journalist, James Cook has produced an extended piece with the above headline but little evidence for it.

It’s utterly untenable. More on that below.

I suppose I’m disappointed more with Aimee who has even had the Royal Statistical Society’s Award for Statistical Excellence in Journalism 2020.

James, ‘a British journalist and broadcaster’, unless he’s modestly hiding stuff, is described only as ‘Educated at Forfar Academy, Cook began his career at Radio Tay in Dundee where he first read the news at the age of 15.’

That’s it. Left school at 15/16? No diploma, no degree, not even Higher English then?

It shows.

Clearly James has not, cannot (?) read this kind of thing:

Comparability of drug-related death statistics across the United Kingdom in Government Analysis Function, a UK Government Civil Service Publication (2020):

Statistics on deaths related to drug poisoning in the United Kingdom are compiled separately by:

the National Records of Scotland (NRS)

the Northern Ireland Statistical Research Agency (NISRA)

the Office for National Statistics (ONS), who are responsible for England and Wales

The definitions used for drug-related death statistics are consistent across the UK, but there are important differences in data collection methods and in the death registration systems that affect these statistics. In this article we discuss these differences and their consequences for the comparability of the figures.

The differences mean that the amount of information held on drug-related deaths varies across the UK. In 2021, 25.1% of drug-related deaths registered in England and Wales had no information on the specific substances involved. The equivalent figure for Scotland was 1.9%, and for Northern Ireland the figure was 6.6%.

The proportion of drug-related deaths  where no information about specific substances is known has remained consistent over time in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, the proportion of these deaths has been increasing over time in England and Wales, with important consequences for drug-related death statistics.

In most cases a death cannot be called a drug misuse death when no information on the specific substances is known or provided. Because of this, figures for drug misuse are underestimates. But the figure for England and Wales underestimates the number by a far greater extent. 

Source: https://analysisfunction.civilservice.gov.uk/blog/comparability-of-drug-related-death-statistics-across-the-united-kingdom/

No one know what the actual drug-related death figures are for England and it’s certainly not in James Cook’s interest for him to admit it.

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Let’s broaden things out. From EMCDDA assessment of drug-induced death data [DRDs]and contextual information in selected countries, published by the EU in 2017, co-authored by Andrew McAuley of Glasgow Caledonian University:

In this report, we summarise the findings of a project to examine the triggers and dynamics of DRDs in the seven northern European countries with the highest DRD rates per general population: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and Scotland during the 2004-2014 period. The project considered whether or not between- country variation in DRDs, and trends therein, might be explained.

And concluded:

Available data do not support precise comparison of DRD rates, and thereby DRD risk, between the seven countries, or of trends in DRD rates. Thus, although the number of DRDs is broadly proportional to the likely number of at-risk individuals, it is not possible to conclude with any certainty whether or not the number of DRDs in some countries is larger than would be expected, taking into account the size of their at-risk populations.

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318723461_EMCDDA_assessment_of_drug-induced_death_data_and_contextual_information_in_selected_countries_Contract_number_CT15IBS013710

So, as with the Pisa results, people with professorships, PhDs, just a wee degree even, know with complete certainty, that they don’t know, such is the complexity of the context, that you cannot plausibly compare drug deaths between even advanced European countries.

Just stop it, eh, Jim?

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