What is it with journalists? The US sees a 38% fall in gun deaths since 2021 and they’re still falling fast

I appreciate that this is a bit off-agenda but I hope still of interest.

In the Guardian today, the above and:

Although political violence is not new in America, we seem to have entered a cycle of new horror. In addition to mass shootings, the past few years have seen the assassination of the Democratic state legislator Melissa Hortman and her husband in Minnesota, multiple assassination attempts on Donald Trump and his cabinet, the killing of two members of the National Guard, the bombing of a fertility clinic in California, the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers, and an arson attack on the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/sep/09/turning-point-usa-charlie-kirk-killing-one-year-later

That made my, even pre-caffeine brain, jerk as it does with many media comments in Scotland, especially those telling us of violence spikes here that simply disappear when you look at the figures.

What is the trend in homicide by shooting in the USA since 2000?

Firearm homicides in the United States declined or stayed relatively low from 2000 through the mid-2010s, rose modestly in the late 2010s, spiked sharply in 2020–2021, and have fallen substantially since then. The 2024 rate is above the 2014 low but well below the pandemic peak and far below early-1990s highs. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/28/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us/

2025 and 2026 so far?

The decline in U.S. firearm homicides continued through 2025 and into the first half of 2026. Both CDC death-certificate data and FBI crime reports show another large drop in 2025 after the post-2021 decline; early 2026 city-level data point in the same direction. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/08/gun-deaths-homicide-suicide-cdc-data/

From the Council on Criminal Justice (30 cities), we see homicides 18% lower in January–June 2026 than in the same period of 2025 (215 fewer killings in those cities). The first-half 2026 rate was about 31% below 2019 and 51% below the 2022 peak. https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2026-update/

The 2021 peak was 21 000 while 2025 looks like being confirmed around 12 800. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/08/gun-deaths-homicide-suicide-cdc-data/

A 38% steady fall in just 4 years and still falling.


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