Why ‘the English Left’ including Gordon Brown will happily let Northern Ireland go but hypocritically and desperately insist on keeping Scotland

In terms of GDP, energy, food and drink exports, number of graduates, universities, water and other resources, would Scotland be a far greater loss for the rest of the UK?

Yes. On those real-economy measures, Scotland would be a far larger loss to the remaining UK than Northern Ireland.

Scotland is about 8 per cent of UK GDP; Northern Ireland is about 2 per cent. Scotland’s sales to the rest of the UK are on the order of £50 billion-plus a year and around 60 per cent of its external sales. NI–GB trade is much smaller. Losing Scotland therefore removes a larger customer, supplier and internal market.

Energy. A geographic split of the continental shelf would assign most remaining North Sea oil and gas to Scotland, plus a large share of UK offshore wind potential. Scotland is already a net electricity exporter to England (historically on the order of 15–20 TWh a year). Northern Ireland has no comparable hydrocarbon endowment and is not a material energy supplier to Great Britain.

Food and drink. Scotland punches far above its population weight. Scotch whisky is the UK’s dominant drinks export (around £5 billion a year in recent figures). Scottish salmon is the UK’s top food export (around £800 million-plus). Scotland has been reported as accounting for about 30 per cent of UK food-and-drink export value. Northern Ireland has important agri-food trade, especially with Ireland, but nothing on that scale for the rest of the UK’s export basket.

Universities and graduates. Scotland has about 19 universities and around 300,000 students; Northern Ireland has four institutions and about 60,000. Scotland has four ancient universities and several research-intensive ones (Edinburgh and Glasgow are in the Russell Group). That is a larger share of UK higher-education capacity, research output and graduate production than NI, even after allowing for population.

Water and other resources. Scotland has a large freshwater surplus relative to population. There is no significant pipeline or bulk export of Scottish water to England today; official answers have said bulk transfer is not economically viable and is not planned. The resource exists as a future option and as a domestic asset (hydro, industry, climate resilience). Northern Ireland does not offer a comparable surplus to Great Britain. Forestry, fisheries, space for renewables and a long coastline add to the same picture: Scotland is resource-rich in ways NI is not.

Output, energy, exports, skills and natural resources lost: Scotland is in a different league.


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