In the Herald today the above. Who accuses? This guy, a ‘top’ tunnel designer.
How strong is the case for replacing Scotland’s west coast ferries with tunnels?
UK Treasury Green Book-style present-value calculations (with discounting) often make high-upfront tunnel capital look less favourable than ongoing ferry replacement and operating costs, even when undiscounted lifetime cash costs favour tunnels. Recent Shetland analyses illustrate this divergence. https://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/news/could-much-criticised-treasury-guidance-on-public-spending-d-436409/
Low traffic volumes: On sparsely populated islands, pure financial payback via tolls or conventional CBA is difficult. One tunnelling expert [Martin Knights] publicly stated Shetland-style schemes “would never pay for itself” under standard cost-benefit analysis because of low population/traffic relative to capital cost. https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/shetlands-500m-inter-island-tunnel-project-would-never-pay-for-itself-16-03-2023/
Is the Scottish Government already using our taxation to give the islanders a wee bit extra?
Around £5 000 each more than the rest of us in grant subsidies:
Source – https://www.gov.scot/publications/funding-local-government-scotland-2026-27/pages/12/
What is causing depopulation?
There is no reliable research suggesting the ferry service matters much in this.
What really matters?
Limited employment opportunities and poor economic prospects ~35–45% (most consistently ranked as the top or leading structural driver). Lack of diverse, well-paid jobs with career progression is repeatedly identified as the dominant reason young people leave for education or work elsewhere, creating a “brain drain.” https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ijpg.265
Housing shortages and lack of affordability ~20–30% (second-most prominent structural barrier)
Insufficient suitable/affordable housing (exacerbated by second homes, tourism lets) prevents young families from staying or returning and deters in-migrants. Recent SRUC research and government reviews frequently pair this closely with jobs as a core constraint. https://sruc.figshare.com/articles/report/Demographic_change_and_out-migration_in_rural_and_island_Scotland/30617195
Youth out-migration leads to ageing populations, low fertility, and service erosion, creating a feedback loop.
Note again, the above Scottish Government grants.
Are we subsidising the ferries enough? AI search: Compare central government funding of ferry services for Scotland, Channel Isles, Isle of Wight, Washington State USA and British Columbia Canada.
Scotland provides by far the highest per-capita support, reflecting a strong policy commitment to remote island connectivity, affordable fares, and economic viability for small populations.
Finally, in the January 2026 management report (covering recent performance data), the average vehicle deck utilisation for Oban–Craignure Mull stood at 51.54%. – half empty.
Discover more from Talking-up Scotland
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Talking-up Scotland 
Awww poor wee man cannae make a buck out of Scots to pay for him to get wealthy. Anyway where would we need these tunnel? Aye, build one in the guise of a tunnel from Scotland & England while it’s purpose is to STEAL our water. Only tunnel I would back is one to Europe, somewhere like Holland.
LikeLike
But what about the catamarans!
Remember that older cheery fella holding a model boat that was always being used in Martin Williams pieces in the Herald. That was to be the way forward 🙂
Stephen McKenzie
LikeLike
Good morning, A very interesting table showing grant support for Islands. The islands and west of Scotland appear to do much better than Edinburgh and the Lothians per capita Midlothian is actually an SNP council which runs itself well as I experience buy no do could do more. Edinburgh is increasingly using private money and appears to get less support Is it offered and spurned? Borders do quite well too Not Perth ? Do we know the reasons for these choices ? Personally I feel tunnels a distraction Support people I say! Social services are quite piecemeal Funding is there but scattered as much goes to independent charities some very good but as it is usually short term from grant to grant experience and continuity is being be lost Evaluation is not evident Perhaps funding outcomes should be also be looked as well My Neice’s daughter, a young autistic adult is experiencing short term support which is provided by a mix of professional good support and also less professional service Chops and changes Family chases then up but it seemed to me to show a lack of overarching responsibilities or analysis of needs and outcomes. Also newcomers to Scotland and not well connected to Scotland or knowledgeable about area or need provided this. New one perso taking on a role till March for all of East Lothian and Glasgow – seemed odd to me but I may hot have the whole of it I wonder what these government agencies actually accomplish in a consistent way? Just handing short term funding doesn’t seem enough Meanwhile tunnels and of course ferries All seems a bit unnecessary and driven by pressure rather than coordination of analysis and need. Look after our population centres and indigenous Scots could be more fully secure in employment and mental health. This would surely result in secure population growth and prosperity I wonder how many MPs and Ministers understand their role? And get to the heart of need with observation and research before deciding on money grants? Who is really running the show? My random thoughts following the discussion on tunnels! Thank you for all your hard work. Kind Regards Hazel Stewart
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hi Hazel
Kind words get me going in the morning!
John
LikeLiked by 1 person