BBC UK online and repeated across BBC Breakfast today, has dramatic and deeply disturbing news:

The chief inspector of probation for England and Wales has told the BBC the early release of thousands of prisoners could lead to “a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder” because of the demands on probation staff to monitor offenders.

and

One probation officer told the BBC the upcoming releases had put him and his colleagues into “a state of panic”. We can’t cope with this – we’ve been saying that to anybody who will listen. At the minute I think it’s pure panic in terms of where we’re at. I don’t understand how there can be this level of pressure put on us. The worst that can happen is that things are missed, plans aren’t put into place and we don’t give people the level of service they need and that leads to serious further offences. That leads to death under supervision.” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39e3y1y2zjo

JC! Imagine the media operating in Scotland if such claims were being made here. The BBC Scotland website is not even linking to the story. Why might that be?

There are currently 5 576 ‘band 4’ probation officers in England.²

Scotland does not have “probation officers” as a distinct role. The equivalent is Justice Social Workers (also called criminal justice social workers), who are qualified social workers employed mainly by the 32 local authorities.

Per head of population, you might expect that Scotland would have around 560 of these but has 1 174 up from 950 the year before.³

Scotland has twice as many per head!

How does this play out in terms of re-offending rates?

From the Guardian 24 February 2026:

Record numbers of offenders are being recalled to prison in England and Wales with union officials claiming that some are deliberately breaking the terms of their probation in order to deal drugs in prison. Prison sources said that after the implementation of early release schemes, as many as 5,000 men were recalled in December alone – more than a third of the total number released in the year to June 2025.

The Guardian does not offer an annual total and one does not seem to have been published, but for just one quarter, April – June 2025, there were 11 041⁴ so we might estimate around 40 000 for 2024/2025.

How many in Scotland? 290.⁵

So, to compare, England & Wales have 11 times the population, thus 290 becomes 3 190, if they’re comparable.

They’re not – recall rates in England & Wales, per head of population are 13 times higher.

Sources:

1. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jun/19/probation-public-risk-ex-offenders-england-wales-union
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-september-2025/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-september-2025
3. https://www.communitycare.co.uk/content/news/social-worker-numbers-increase-in-scottish-councils
4. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-april-to-june-2025/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-april-to-june-2025
5. https://www.gov.scot/publications/justice-social-work-statistics-in-scotland-2024-25-part-1/pages/8-statutory-voluntary-throughcare