GERS does not even claim an independent Scotland would have faced a deficit last year but BBC Scotland still pretend it does

Scotland would have faced last year.

You decide – BBC Scotland staff are thick as mince or institutionally corrupt?

Is this claim today by BBC Scotland, true?

No. It’s a dirty big lie.

The GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) figures published on 12 August 2026 for 2025-26 report a notional net fiscal balance (deficit) of £25.3 billion, or −10.9% of GDP, for Scotland as part of the UK. This is an estimate of the gap between revenue raised in Scotland and public spending for/on behalf of Scotland under existing UK arrangements; it is not a figure for the deficit an independent Scotland would have faced. https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/26456681.gers-2025-26-scotlands-deficit-narrows-25-3bn/

GERS is an Accredited Official Statistics publication produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It estimates total public-sector revenue attributable to Scotland and the cost of public services provided for Scotland (using actual data for devolved spending and allocations/estimates for much reserved UK spending, such as defence and debt interest). The resulting “notional” net fiscal balance is routinely described that way because Scotland does not currently run a separate national budget or issue its own debt in the same way. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx237j9xy7go

Key limitations relevant to independence include:

  • It is backward-looking and reflects the current constitutional settlement, tax system, spending decisions, and fiscal transfers within the UK.
  • Many items (e.g., population-share allocations of UK defence, debt interest, or other reserved spending) would change under independence; policy choices on currency, tax rates, spending priorities, North Sea arrangements, EU membership, etc., would also differ.

In short, the £25.3 bn / −10.9% figure is the notional deficit under current UK arrangements for 2025-26. It does not represent (and is not presented as) the deficit an independent Scotland would have faced last year.


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9 thoughts on “GERS does not even claim an independent Scotland would have faced a deficit last year but BBC Scotland still pretend it does

  1. Other issues pointed out by Richard Murphy in 2014:

    Scotland gets charged for the cost of Civil Servants in London managing our affairs but doesn’t get credited with the income from their tax and insurance.

    Scotland gets charged for Bank of England loans to Westminster plus interest. But the Bank of England doesn’t charge the government interest etc etc

    What puzzles me is why the Scottish Government continues to publish this rubbish and why it doesn’t devise a proper means of estimating our income and expenditure. Could a university be trusted to undertake this as a research project?

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  2. Both Labour and Conservative Scottish minister lay credit for Scotlands success to a United Kingdom but neither explain why that may be so.
    Absolute baloney of course; scraping the barrel bottom for their excuses.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The “benefits” of being a colony.

    Our assets are exploited for the benefit of our coloniser, but with few advantages for Scotland. Figures are toted-up with no regard to relevance or actuality. The Treasury never produces real time figures or opens its books for scrutiny. The BBC that operates in Scotland, as a Unionist propaganda unit, always puts a British nationalist spin on this, and NEVER asks questions. Green Book–don’t look?

    P!sh is P!sh no matter if Wee Dougie Mandelson claims it to be sweet, cool water, as he waits in line for his ermine cloak.

    gavinochiltree

    Liked by 1 person

  4. GERS again shows Scotland’s economy is mismanaged under London. Despite 50 years of oil revenues, major steel market and huge renewable sector, Scotland’s potential is still squandered by Westminster

    Sent from Outlook for Androidhttps://aka.ms/AAb9ysg


    Liked by 1 person

  5. £Billions wasted on ‘Defence’. £Billions wasted on Brexit. Scotland did not vote for it. £Billion of Scotland’s revenues spent on paying back Westminster loans and debt not borrowed or spent in Scotland but the rest of the UK. £10Billion.

    £Billions wasted on HS2, Hickley Point by the sea, Trident, redundant weaponry etc, etc. All things nothing to do with Scotland. Poor, bad decisions take by Westminster. Scotland out voted 10 to 1.

    No taxation without representation. Oil revenues taken, in secret and spent in London S/E. Canary Wharf, bankers. Tilbury Docks 26 miles of container port. Docks shut down elsewhere.

    Illegal wars lies. Destruction and murder.

    Scotland in surplus in fuel and energy. Pays more for its own production. Taxes and profits go to Westminster.

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  6. Westminster refuses to give the true figures. Says it cannot manage calculations. A click on a computer. Just guesses and made up figures. In Westminster favour. D notices and secrecy hides the true figures. A comparison can be made of the UK Gov. Scottish Gov accounts. Gives an insight to the miscalculations and Westminster lies. They are trying to hide.

    £13Billion a year to decommission nuclear for ten years. The waste of Trident and redundant weaponry. £55Billion. The value of the EU membership. Scottish taxes pay the UK pension in Scotland.shows the funds raised and where it goes. There is a limited comparison.

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  7. Sure, some of those costs are currently controlled by Westminster – but whether its pensions and benefits, network rail, energy bills support, lottery grants, renewable heat incentives, research grants etc. these are all things that directly benefit Scots and the Scottish economy and not one single case for independence has suggested this spending should be cut – then defence at 2.2% of GDP (see NATO targets) and well before your even thinking about servicing debt the challenge for an iScotland is clear for anybody with an enquiring mind and critical eye to see.

    It’s well explained in full detail on the GERS Explorer

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