BBC Scotland today try to have it both ways in this headline. What percentage of the population is, like TuS readers, media students and other perceptive folk out there, thinking ‘Ah it’s just charges. It might not really be soaring at all?’

It’s not. Hate crimes in Scotland are not ‘soaring.’ I’m as certain as I can be.

Why?

First, from the same report:

A new law introduced in 2024 created a new crime of “stirring up hatred” relating to age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, transgender identity or being intersex.¹

Broaden the definition of hate crime and more cases are reported? That’ll be a full ‘DUUH?’

Second, Victims and Community Safety Minister Kirsten Oswald stated: “this increase may partly reflect improved reporting and awareness.” ²

Third, The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS), admittedly for 2023, based on ‘gold standard’ interview-based research does not report a parallel increase in hate crime or prejudice-motivated victimisation on a scale that would forewarn of the COPFS ‘surge‘ and would rather reinforce the importance of increased reporting in creating it.³

The SCJS is Scotland’s primary victimisation survey. It measures actual experiences of crime (including unreported incidents) via a representative sample, making it the best available check on whether police/COPFS-recorded rises reflect real increases in offending or mainly changes in reporting, awareness, or recording practices.

Fourth, and most important, from Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: May 2026 on Statistics on hate crime:

Small decrease in overall hate crime charges. There was a decrease of 1.2% between 2023-24 and 2024-25, in the total number of charges reported to COPFS containing at least one element of hate crime. The figures for 2024-25 are not directly comparable with earlier years because they include new categories of hate crime and new charges introduced by the Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021.⁴

For reasons beyond me, the researchers do not subtract the new offences to reveal what the underlying trend is.

Quick Breakdown with Numbers

• 2023-24 total charges (old categories only): 6,094
• 2024-25 total charges (old + new): 6,019 (down 75, or 1.2%)

New elements added in 2024-25 under the 2021 Act:

• Age aggravation: 88 charges
• Variation in sex characteristics (VSC): 13 charges
• Stirring up hatred charges: 92 (27 race-related + 65 others) copfs.gov.uk

These new items add up to roughly ~190+ charges that wouldn’t have existed (or been counted) under the old system. Some overlap or multi-aggravator cases exist, but the net addition is still substantial. Implied drop in comparable (“old”) charges: To reach a net total decrease of only 75 despite adding ~190 new ones, the underlying old-category charges likely fell by around 265 (or ~4.3–4.5%). This is a rough estimate since exact overlaps aren’t broken out, but the direction is clear. ⁵

So, to summarise:

Recorded hate crime appears to have risen substantially in Scotland and the UK. Researchers and reports commonly attribute much of this to:

• Greater victim/witness confidence and awareness
• Police training and improved recording practices
• Legislative changes broadening definitions or adding categories
• External triggers like media coverage, high-profile incidents, or social/political climates that boost both reporting and potentially some offending.

Victim surveys like that from the SCCJR (above) provide evidence of this by often revealing stable underlying levels of victimisation casting doubt on recorded figures as reliable evidence of surges.

Sources:

1. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj817vlwmzo
2. https://www.thenational.scot/news/26239601.number-hate-crime-reports-scotland-reaches-new-high/
3. https://www.sccjr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/SCCJR-Victims-of-Crime.pdf
4. https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-and-justice-statistics-monthly-data-report-may-2026/pages/statistics-on-hate-crime/
5. https://www.copfs.gov.uk/publications/hate-crime-in-scotland-2024-25/html/