Murrell Effect debunked as SNP significantly increase vote share in by-election

We all know the voters in Aberdeen South were set firm to punish both Labour and the SNP and they did. They humiliated Labour by pushing them down into 4th place!

It was a single-issue protest vote of the kind we often see in by-elections and which means nothing for the wider and longer-term prospects of the winners. Lumsden should save as much as he can as he’ll be out again in 2 to 3 years.

If there was to be a Peter Murrell, SNP corruption effect, we’d have seen it in Arbroath and Broughty ferry but the SNP share was more than double that of the Cons and went up from 35.3% in July 2024 to 41.1%, last night a 5.8% increase compared to 3.9% for the Cons.

End of discusssion.


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6 thoughts on “Murrell Effect debunked as SNP significantly increase vote share in by-election

  1. Indeed, but a 38% turnout means it’s clear a lot of SNP voters/potential SNP voters stayed home. We need to give those voters a reason to turn out. At the moment, the best bet is for the Scottish Govt to restore momentum by implementing a moratorium on data centres, as they’ve already done with fracking. Without such an incentive, and with us being no closer to Indy, those voters will continue to stay home.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. And the turnout in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry was even lower at 31%.

    Nearly 59% in Makerfield.

    I’m personally left wondering what the point of SNP MPs actually sitting in Westminster is any more, a feeling I’ve had since peak SNP, 56 out of 59 Scottish seats, in 2015.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Agreed re the Labour vote. Other parties in A&BF seem to have improved their vote shares slightly, but not as much as the SNP.

      The overall turnout in 2024 was (only) 57%.

      I know it’s only a mid-term
      by-election, but I find such numbers not bothering to vote (both in 2024 and yesterday) quite depressing.

      My fear is Holyrood voting turnouts start to mirror the much lower turnouts of council elections.

      2021 coming out of lockdown was quite good with over 1m postal votes across Scotland. I don’t care if people prefer postal votes, I just wish more people would vote full stop.

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  3. The turnout of voters will in a GE in 2014 the turnout was up in the 90% & Scots born voted foe indy. It was a disgrace that holiday home owners got a vote.

    I even received a polling card for a man, never heard of him. Only person living here, in my household, single occupancy lived here since 2007. I never added anyone living here.

    Asked all the neighbours some who have lived there for years, no one has ever haward of him. Something stunk in 2014. I do believe it was rigged.

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