In the Guardian today:

The public is “at direct risk” from unsupervised ex-offenders because probation officers in England and Wales are being asked to cope with excessive workloads, a union has said. As ministers prepare to release and monitor tens of thousands more prisoners this autumn, Napo’s executive has declared for the first time that it has no confidence in managers at the probation service. In a worrying development for the government, the union is threatening to launch industrial action in three months’ time unless members receive increased support and pay.

James Timpson, the prisons minister, told MPs last week that the probation service was under severe pressure after disclosing that staff were each managing an average of 32 ex-offenders.¹

There are currently 5 576 ‘band 4’ probation officers in England.²

Scotland does not have “probation officers” as a distinct role. The equivalent is Justice Social Workers (also called criminal justice social workers), who are qualified social workers employed mainly by the 32 local authorities.

Per head of population, you might expect that Scotland would have around 560 of these but has 1 174 up from 950 the year before.³

Scotland has twice as many!

How does this play out in terms of re-offending rates?

From the Guardian 24 February 2026:

Record numbers of offenders are being recalled to prison in England and Wales with union officials claiming that some are deliberately breaking the terms of their probation in order to deal drugs in prison. Prison sources said that after the implementation of early release schemes, as many as 5,000 men were recalled in December alone – more than a third of the total number released in the year to June 2025.

The Guardian does not offer an annual total and one does not seem to have been published, but for just one quarter, April – June 2025, there were 11 041⁴ so we might estimate around 40 000 for 2024/2025.

How many in Scotland? 290.⁵

So, to compare, England & Wales have 11 times the population, thus 290 becomes 3 190, if they’re comparable.

They’re not – recall rates in England & Wales, per head of population are 13 times higher.

Sources:

1. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jun/19/probation-public-risk-ex-offenders-england-wales-union
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-september-2025/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-september-2025
3. https://www.communitycare.co.uk/content/news/social-worker-numbers-increase-in-scottish-councils
4. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-april-to-june-2025/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-april-to-june-2025
5. https://www.gov.scot/publications/justice-social-work-statistics-in-scotland-2024-25-part-1/pages/8-statutory-voluntary-throughcare