More than TWICE as many in NHS England and more than THREE times as many in NHS Wales, than in NHS Scotland, spending 12 hours or more in A&E

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The imperative to provide context and perspective, and to push for fair and accurate reporting, on all matters concerning NHS Scotland becomes all the more crucial as the 2026 Holyrood election approaches. The British Labour Party and others in opposition in Holyrood aided by mainstream media allies clearly aim to major on NHS Scotland in their campaigning.

This is to add to the responses already made on TuS to the most recent Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) report on NHS Scotland and to the associated media and political reactions.

The RCEM has previously published this on its website: ‘RCEM Explains: Long waits and excess deaths’. 

https://rcem.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/RCEM_Explains_long_waits_and_excess_mortality.pdf)

The document analyses the impact of 12 hour stays in A&E based on 2022 data. It contains a table entitled ‘ Excess deaths calculated using the SMR methodology’. During 2022, the RCEM calculates – by its favoured methodology – the (alleged) number of excess deaths as follows:

England = 23,003 deaths; NI = 1,434 deaths; Scotland = 765 deaths; Wales = 1,717 deaths..

These differences are quite remarkable considering relative population sizes. The RCEM, political opponents of the Scottish Government, the mainstream media in Scotland makes NOTHING of these statistical comparisons.

Importantly, there is no evidence that the relative differences between NHS Scotland and the NHS across the rUK on long waits and their impact has changed much since 2022.

On September 12, 2025 the RCEM published a statement under this headline: ‘RCEM ‘deeply concerned’ for winter season ahead after unrelenting summer in England’s A&Es’. It contained this report: ‘The statistics, published this week (11 September 2025) from NHS England, revealed 122,557 patients endured a wait of 12 hours or more last month to be admitted, discharged or transferred.
That’s one in every 11 patients. This is the second highest number who experienced this wait since they began in 2010 for the month of August.’
 (my emphasis)

Note: ‘one in every 11 patients’ equates to 9.1% of attendances spending 12 hours in an emergency department in NHS England.

The RCEM also reported: ’35,909 people waited 12 hours or more after the decision to admit them to hospital was made – commonly referred to as a ‘trolley wait’. This is the highest number for the month of August on record. In the same month 10 years ago, there were just 28 patients who experienced this wait. 

No mention of ‘excess deaths’ by the RCEM in England.

This should give British Labour Party leadership in Scotland and especially its media allies further cause to reflect on their campaigning rhetoric targeting the Scottish Government – but it won’t! Dr Adrian Boyle, Immediate Past President of the RCEM is quoted: “Earlier this year, the Health Minister said he is ‘determined to consign’ so-called corridor care ‘to the history books’. However, we haven’t seen any tangible and meaningful plan to end this reality.”

On August 21 2025 the RCEM published this statement: ‘Summer surge must be ‘huge wake up call’ for Welsh government as winter looms .’ It reported: ‘The latest performance data, released today (21 August 2025) by Stats Wales, reveals one in seven patients (10,390) waited 12 hours or longer to be admitted, transferred or discharged from major Welsh EDs last month.’

Note: ‘One in seven patients’ equates to 14.3% of attendances spending 12 hours in an emergency department in NHS Wales.

The RCEM adds: ‘That’s 266 more patients who endured this extreme wait compared to June 2025. But to get a sense of the longer-term deterioration, when you compare July 2025 to July 2018, this year saw almost three times as many people waiting 12 hours or more than seven years (sic) despite fewer people (-4%) attending.’ No mention of ‘excess deaths’ in this RCEM statement by the. Way!

This on Labour-run NHS Wales surely should give Ms Baillie and her colleagues in the British Labour Party in Scotland cause to reflect on their campaigning rhetoric? But then why should they given the mainstream media in Scotland’s aversion to context and perspective, and its seeming willingness to act as enablers of political hypocrisy?

For perspective, the RCEM’s statement on excess deaths in Scotland (September 23, 2025) reported that in July and August ‘one in 24’ patients had a 12 hour stay in an NHS Scotland emergency department.

Note: ‘one in 24, equates to 4.2% of attendances spending 12 hours in an emergency department in NHS Scotland – not the c.9% currently typical in NHS England nor the c. 14% in NHS Wales.

And yet which part of the NHS and which responsible government is being targeted and denigrated? The best performers!

3 thoughts on “More than TWICE as many in NHS England and more than THREE times as many in NHS Wales, than in NHS Scotland, spending 12 hours or more in A&E

  1. So glad that the Prof and you and the team are back posting. It is a scandal that a “public service broadcaster” is able to campaign shamelessly for their British paymaster. I rarely listen to them and never watch TV but I do check the website every day and scan the newspaper headlines. Always a depressing experience so this blog is a necessity.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. I bleeding well knew it. The “Scottish”news channels all blasting out how dire the figures are here when we know that rUK’s will be a lot worse, no matter how much titivating the UK government does.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. But again frustratingly Swinney at FM’s Q’s today made no mention of this. Instead we got a rambling incoherent response that few people listening or watching made little sense of. Telling the waits are better than two years ago no longer cuts it for me. People know times are difficult but just want to know that Scotland’s NHS is performing better than in rUK. Either he is not getting his officials to get this info to him or is just becoming complacent which is unacceptable in the lead up to one of the most important Holyrood elections since the Referendum. It is just feeding the opposition to table these or similar questions as they know it is a quick win for them.

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