Professor John Robertson OBA
Taking a break from ferry fraudulence to policing propaganda, Martin Williams (Herald sole staff member on Wednesday?), has this today:
Scotland has lost nearly 800 police officers since it became a unified national force 12 years ago leading to concerns about how it is able to cope, it can be revealed.
The policing strength of Police Scotland has dropped from 17,324 in April 2013, when it was formed to just 16,553 this year – despite past promises to put an extra 1,000 officers on the beat.
Based on the above statistics, crime has fallen by around 10% since Police Scotland was formed and, based on Martin’s figures, police staffing has only fallen by 4.6%.
I’ll do the coping second but first, staffing:
From Police officer quarterly strength statistics: 31 March 2025:
- there were 16,553 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 31 March 2025
- police officer numbers increased by 45 FTE officers (+0.3%) in the last quarter from 31 December 2024
- police officer numbers increased by 197 FTE officers (+1.2%) in the last year from 31 March 2024
- this is an increase of 319 FTE police officers (+2.0%) from the 16,234 FTE police officers recorded at 31 March 2007. 1
At the same time:
Many of us, understandably are skeptical about the picture of falling crime painted by statistics based on police recording. Correctly, we point to the fact that much crime is known to be unreported and unrecorded.2
However, the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS),3 carried out by independent University-based researchers interviews around 5 000 Scots asking them to speak of ‘their experiences of, and attitudes to, a range of issues related to crime, policing and the justice system, including crime not reported to the police.‘
This is gold standard research and can be trusted to reveal the world as experienced by the wider population.
The survey update reveals:
Crime has fallen by 53% since 2008-09. Results from the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) show that around one in ten adults were victims of crime in 2021-22 (10.0%), down from 11.9% in 2019-20. This compares to one in five in 2008-09 (20.4%).
The SCJS showed the volume of violent crime fell by nearly three-fifths (58%) between 2008-09 and 2021-22.
On top of these two sources, we can see in almost every opinion poll which looks at what issues are affecting voters, crime is mentioned by around twice as many in other parts of the UK as in Scotland.
Looking at more recent Police Scotland recording:
Recorded sexual crimes decreased in the most recent year. Sexual crimes decreased by 3%, from 14,834 in the year ending June 2023 to 14,417 in the year ending June 2024.
The clear up rate for all recorded crimes was 54.1% in 2023-24, up from 53.3% in 2022-23. Crimes against society (91.4%), non-sexual crimes of violence (68%) and sexual crimes (57.2%) continued to have higher clear up rates in 2023-24 than crimes of dishonesty (33.1%) and damage and reckless behaviour (29.6%).
There were 61,934 incidents of domestic abuse recorded by the police in 2022-23, a decrease of 4% on 2021-22. In 2022-23, 39% of all incidents recorded by the police included the recording of at least one crime or offence.
Between 2020-21 and 2021-22, the number of crimes and offences in which a firearm was alleged to have been involved decreased by 23% (from 353 to 273 offences). The 2021-22 figure is the lowest recorded level since comparable records began in 1980.
How does all this compare with other parts of the UK?
In 2022/23, however, Scotland’s crime rate was the lowest in the UK, with the crime rate in England and Wales rising noticeably during the same period. Scotland’s homicide rate has also fallen, from being the highest in the UK in 2002/03, to the lowest as of 2022/23.
In actual numbers, the crime rate in England is 87 per 1 000 people, 83 in Wales4 and only 55 in Scotland.5 This a huge, life-affecting difference.
Sources:
- https://www.gov.scot/publications/police-officer-quarterly-strength-statistics-31-march-2025/
- https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-justice-statistics-monthly-data-report-october-2024-summary-justice-safer-communities-statistics/pages/5/
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/370395/scotland-crime-rate-local-authorities/#:~:text=Comparisons%20with%20the%20rest%20of%20the%20UK&text=In%202022%2F23%2C%20however%2C,lowest%20as%20of%202022%2F23.
- https://crimerate.co.uk/
- https://www.bing.com/search?q=Scotland%20crime%20rate%20per%201000&FORM=ARPSEC&PC=ARPL&PTAG=51530223
Coping? Solving crimes?
See these:
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Crime reporting has always been a staple of the media. What the media want is MORE crime and NASTIER crime. So, we get front page headlines of a knife having been taken from a primary school child by a teacher. Over 70 years ago when I started primary school teachers took knives from weans. In fact, most people had penknives in those days, because they were useful, such as sharpening pencils.
Crime is part of Project Fear. Make the public afraid. Lord Rothermere founded the Daily Mail to frighten people.
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