Professor John Robertson OBA
Find out Now don't weight according to the 2014 referendum result but did to GE 2024 to make the SNP share of the sample smaller than that of Labour (284/241). That may well understate SNP support after these first months of Labour Government.
From Find Out Now, for 2 April 2025, the above sub-poll suggests considerable confidence in the SNP winning well enough to form the next government with issue by issue support from the Greens.
On 26 March 2025, also from Find Out Now, we saw:
On 4 December 2024, Find out Now had:
- Con 13
- Lab 21
- LD 8
- Reform 8
- Greens 8
- SNP 39
On 8 January 2025, it was:
- Con 10
- Lab 18
- LD 13
- Reform 7
- Greens 15
- SNP 36
These are small sub-polls with little value on their own but when they repeat the same story they are of interest.
What story are these last four telling us?
Look at Labour, from 21, to 18, to 12 and back to 19, as Starmer/Sarwar burn their boats. Look at Reform from 7 to 8 to 16 and then back down to 11, to threaten the Cons.
Overall, the SNP look solid around 36%, with Labour being increasingly badly damaged by Reform. With the Cons done for, the SNP might take almost of all the constituencies except maybe the Lib Dem pockets in the north and one or two right-wing areas in the south and in the north-east.
Even in the south and the north-east, Reform may seriously damage the Cons but not be big enough to win if the SNP can stay around 30 or above.
Footnote – Why the YouGov polls are unreliable for Scotland:
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Who remembers this will we ever get to know the truth.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/lifestyle/6724644/willie-mcrae-death-mystery-40-years/
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Yes and no respectively.
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The SNP & Independence increasing support. Over the line. Getting higher abs higher. People need to get out and vote with an increased turnout. The time is nigh. Getting better and better.
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The fact that anyone is even still willing to consider voting for Labour at all is the biggest shock in all and any polls conducted in Scotland , but also in polls elsewhere in the UK State too.
(Obviously it goes without saying (or emphasising) that the same applies to votes for the Tories and Reform UK but also not forgetting the Lib Dems as well).
So have Labour now really become the more palatable option for some soft Tory voters (soft and Tory may either be a contradiction or an illusion).
I mean a lot of people are in the position of neither being wealthy nor poor.
Where they , as some people who live within the UK , have bought their house, they may also have a car, they may be able to go Holidays every year , go to the cinema , the Theatre or have meals in Restaurants and they may also be able to afford the occasional little luxuries but not by any means those really expensive ones.
(Though with a Tory instigated Cost of living crisis that Labour now refuse or are disinclined to reverse many of those hard worked for small luxuries may no longer be able to be enjoyed what with high food prices, high energy bills and the whole bloody shebang of Labour’s ‘Mess-economics’).
They, as people within the UK, may also have some savings that they acquired from perhaps lump sum retirements pots, redundancy lump sum payments or even an Inheritance from a parent or other relative and may then decide to invest in some stocks and shares (not now perhaps) and also may have other Investments , mainly because UK High Street Bank’s now offer no real interest on their savings.
Also some may also have invested in Cash ISA’s which currently offer a tax-free allowance of £20,000 per year but whose interest rates have also declined sharply in recent years.
So in respect to Cash ISA’s guess who is considering changing things on them ?
Yep Rachel Reeves.
It is being reported that she is “open to “axing or significantly reducing” the current cash ISA tax-free allowance, which sits at £20,000 per year” which then, as a potential action by her, is being reported as potentially doing two things “hurting savers” and “crashing the mortgage markets”.
So not only are Labour trying to hurt the most vulnerable and poorest people within the UK but they are also going for some of those that Labour refers to as being the “Working person” , that Labour say they support as a party, as in those people who have worked all of their lives, have been fortunate not to have lost their jobs and so may , in some cases, have gained a wee nest egg for a rainy day or for their retirement.
So then this particular new Labour government, with a huge influence of Tory, is looking to find ways that they can squeeze money out of the “Working Person” to then avoid them as the new UK government, having to impact the really really wealthy people in them applying a “Wealth tax”.
However we also heard it reported in March of this year that the same Rachel Reeves has suggested that “UK taxes on big tech firms may be changed“.
So then they will be paying a fair amount of tax based on their mega profits ?
As if…..
I mean come on, we are talking about a Starmer led new Labour party here and they ‘don’t do fairness as they punish the “Many” to protect the “Few”.
So pre the 10% tariff by Trump Rachel Reeves said talks were “ongoing” about ‘tweaks’ to the Digital Services Tax which affects (or rather may stop affecting) global tech giants like Amazon and Meta.
Post the April 2nd announcement of the 10% Tariff by Trump it is now being reported that “Chancellor Rachel Reeves has suggested the UK could change its taxes on big tech firms as part of a deal to overturn US tariffs”.
In 2020 “a digital services tax to collect 2% of online revenues made in the UK by companies such as Facebook, Google and Amazon” was introduced (by the Tories) and this is what both “The new Labour chancellor and the also the new Labour Business secretary have both left the door open to possibly abolishing”.
It was reported by SKY News on 27 March ( a few days before the tariff announcements by Trump) that “a number of Labour MPs have raised concerns about the optics of reducing or abandoning the tax (on these huge Tech companies) while cutting Benefits for sick and disabled people”
That some Labour MP’s only “raised concerns about the Optics” and not the actual immoral act of implementing these “Cuts to Benefits” for the most needy within the UK is even more alarming and seemingly representative of who Labour really really are as a political party and as a UK government.
The same new Labour UK government , who promised “Change” then they only delivered a “Change” that no one voted for or indeed now wants. (apart from the wealthy , some of whom are their, Labour’s , donors).
Meanwhile Anas Sarwar is swanning about in the USA just now, playing at being the Scottish FM in America , where apparently he is ‘having meetings” with Americans to ( I am 100% sure) both promote and help only his Labour led UK far more than him actually trying to both help or promote Scotland in America, in what is the week when a city in America holds a “Tartan Parade”.
I am sure Sarwar’s (lack of) influence in America could potentially increase tariffs applied to his UK in the future, as they, Americans, must surely find him as ridiculous as we do, I mean he leads (ITO) a party in the Scottish parliament who are currently the third party there , as in not even the official opposition in Holyrood.
Yet he , Sarwar, assumes he is in a position to state in a tweet yesterday that he is “Delighted to host a reception for Scots in DC at the soon to be opened Fish Shop – an off-shoot of the famous Fish Shop Ballater” where he also writes in his tweet that he is “determined to make the case for Scotland as a place to visit and do business, and our diaspora are a key way of promoting it”.
“Diaspora” , what a pretentious delusional upstart he really is. Ha Ha
Plus his only real determination is to keep Scotland in his UK and he does not need to “make the case for Americans coming to visit Scotland” as they, Americans, already come to visit Scotland , which as a country has seen an increase in tourism over others areas in the UK, so what is he Sarwar talking about (also known as Sarwar Waffle).
Vote SNP in 2026 , if nothing else just to shut Sarwar up and end his delusions of political grandeur , that are now all being filed under ‘wishful thinking’ as opposed to realistic expectations ….also a big bloody Ha Ha.
Liz S
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A comparison of the recent conduct of Mr Sarwar of the Scottish branch of the British Labour Party with his fellow party members from the Welsh branch in government in Cardiff is noteworthy.
Firstly, recall this from the ‘authoritative’ BBC News website’s Scotland section, March 27: ‘Sarwar defends UK government welfare cuts.’
Perhaps this should have come as no surprise. After all EVEN the Daily Record (December 8, 2024) had this to say in an article headlined: ‘Anas Sarwar needs to stop acting as Keir Starmer’s spokesman if he wants to be First Minister’ .
‘He has been acting less like Scotland’s leader-in-waiting and more like Starmer’s spokesman north of the border.’
And as one example, on the British Labour Party government’s removal of the Winter Fuel Payment, the same Daily Record piece has this: ‘Sarwar’s response to Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves taking money away from poverty-stricken older people was muffled, occasional and meek. He did not want to annoy her.’ (My emphasis) Telling when EVEN the Daily Record is moved to state this!
From Wales Online (April 4): ‘Wales’ health minister blasts Rachel Reeves PIP decision as ‘wrong’ and one Welsh Government ‘won’t defend’.’
Jeremy Miles MLA, the Wales’ health minister is reported saying ‘the UK Government’s decision to make changes to PIP is wrong. He also said the Welsh Government would not have made cuts to welfare payments for disabled people as the UK Government has done.’
Miles also states that his Labour counterparts in London have made an “unfair” decision over National Insurance Contributions which will result in an estimated £65m loss for Wales, ‘a decision which breaks an agreement between the two administrations.’ (What agreement anyone?)
The article reports: ‘The UK Government’s impact assessment says that changes to PIP entitlement rules is expect to mean 370,000 current recipients will lose entitlement (when they have an award review) and 430,000 future PIP recipients will not qualify, losing an average of £4,500 per year.’
Miles noted: “It’s a decision which a Welsh Labour government would not have taken and does not defend. There are elements in the reform package which are about getting people back into work which clearly need to happen, but I think the disability element of it are not decisions which a Welsh Labour Government would have taken and they’re obviously not for us to defend, they’re decisions taken elsewhere. We need to be clear with the people that is the case, and I think people do understand that.’
On April 1, Wales Online had this headline: ‘Labour woes clear to see as UK Government still can’t answer a very simple question – Labour has had a bruising afternoon, and the publication of a letter from Liz Kendall hasn’t helped’.
It reports on the previous FMQs: ‘Senedd member after member – including Labour ones – stood up to criticise not only the cuts but the way they have been handled.’ (Not defending like loyal Mr Sarwar it seems!)
The Wales Online adds: ‘This has shone a glaring light through the holes in relations between UK and Welsh Governments both now run by Labour. By the Whitehall machine’s understanding of Wales, and the First Minister’s balancing act between her rhetoric that she is “standing up for Wales” and her political obligations to a UK Government that realistically holds the purse strings.’
‘Today it was patently obvious today how this row has cut through because of a simple fact – few people would ever have expected a Labour government would pursue a policy that their own impact assessment admits will make people poorer.
‘It has shown in very simple terms how much Labour here is hostage to the actions of a UK Government it had said for years would work better if it was run by Labour. It has shown that Wales is not at the forefront of decisions being made by the UK Government.’
So ‘hostage to the actions of a UK Government’: we in Scotland know this only too well – and it’s true whether it’s blue Tories or red Tories that form the Westminster government.
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Great research Strewartb. What a difference from Welsh labour in tone compared to the snowflake that Sarwar has become.
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Cast your minds back to Glasgow COP26, where we had a ‘tactically’ timed bin strike in Glasgow, with the media photographing and filming Anas Sarwar and the GMB’s Chris Mitchell standing beside overflowing rubbish bins. Then when interviewed they both blamed the SNP Glasgow council and also the SNP Scottish government.
Now the wonderful MSM Monitor tweeted this today:
“In 2021 Keir Starmer blamed the SNP for the Glasgow bin strike and posed with Anas Sarwar and GMB officials including ‘Rat Man’ Chris Mitchell. Starmer needs to be asked who is to blame in Birmingham and why his UK Labour Govt won’t intervene”?
Also with his tweet he included a tweet from Keir Starmer , who with his tweet he, Starmer, had included a picture of himself , Anas Sarwar, , the GMB Rep. Chris Mitchell and another man where they were all holding a banner that said:
“Don’t treat us like Trash we are Key workers we deserve more cash”.
Starmer’s tweet stated :
“Glasgow’s in a waste crisis after a failure of leadership from the SNP Council. Workers and communities have been left to live and work in unsafe conditions. The eyes of the world are on Glasgow – the Scottish government must intervene to ensure the city is ready to host COP26”.
So now in an exercise of ‘Life coming back at you’ , that is for Keir Starmer , we now have a Bankrupt declared (in 2023) Labour run Birmingham council’s very prolonged Bin strike , who as a Labour council , are determined to “treat some Bin workers like Trash as they, Labour Birmingham Council, do not see them as deserving of more cash”.
In fact they , as a Labour Council , and because of their own financial predicament, are now seemingly determined to see some of these Bin workers actually lose out on cash in their “restructuring exercise” and so basically just really treat them like “Trash”.
The Unite Union boss had accused the Labour UK government Ministers of “sitting on their hands” in other words not “intervening” , which was exactly what Keir Starmer said the Scottish government should have done with the Glasgow Bin strike.
Hypocrite much ?
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham also claimed that “false narratives” had been used in UK government statements on the dispute that has now been reported as having “left more than 17,000 tonnes of waste on city streets”
Unite has claimed a planned restructuring of Birmingham’s refuse service would see 50 workers lose £8,000 a year and about 20 lose £2,000 per annum.
Or rather a loss for those as certain Bin workers that Labour now calls the “working people” that they, as the new Labour government, say they supposedly support. (but seemingly don’t in reality at either a Council or UK government level).
The all out Bin strike started on 11 March but waste collections have been disrupted since January 2025 when various walk outs were staged by Bin workers.
It was reported by SKY News that “Residents have complained about the mounting rubbish that they regard as a risk to public Health with rotting food attracting Rats”, the same kind of Rats that Anas Sarwar and GMB rep Chris Mitchell told us only exists in Glasgow apparently!
Sky News last night showed a video of Rats (plural) in some areas in Birmingham running around the piles of rubbish bags that have been piling up since the strike started!
Shocking and awful for the people who live in Birmingham and who have the misfortune to have both a Labour council and now also a Labour UK government.
SKY News reported that “Birmingham bin strike is now one of the longest the UK has seen in recent years, though Keir Stramer, Anas Sarwar and GMB’s Chris Mitchell would have you believe otherwise, as they are all political hypocrites who all want all Glaswegians, all of the people in Scotland, the rest of the UK and indeed the rest of the world (COP26) to all see and so regard Glasgow as a rat infested rubbish dump. (Also Scotland too)
(BTW this is the same Anas Sarwar who is currently in America just now trying to promote , checks bloody notes, Tourism to Scotland (or so he says) , which he was not trying to do during COP26 with his ‘dirty’ political stunts in Glasgow with Chris Mitchell as his Union stooge at his side, with the most tactically timed bin strikes there at the most inopportune moment for Glasgow and Scotland).
Vote SNP in 2026 and then show Keir Starmer, Anas Sarwar and the likes of politically compromised GMB Union Reps like Chris Mitchell that their propaganda and hypocrisy does not work in Scotland , as we in Scotland do actually get to watch , read and hear about , not just the media and political contrived “news where we are” but also the actual “News where others are” too within the UK. (like news about Birmingham Bin strikes in a Labour run council and a Labour UK government not “intervening” while that strike is ongoing).
So because Scotland is still unfortunately a part of the UK , we do then have access to other news within the UK, that then exposes just how hypocritical UK politicians and their co-conspirators all are (like their politically compromised media and also their politically compromised Trade Union Reps like Chris Mitchell also are) in them all applying double standards for Scotland compared to England (and the same goes for Labour run Wales too).
Stop the Rot (pun intended).
Liz S
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Talking of Labour…….
“The Labour Party has suspended MP Dan Norris after “being informed of his arrest”, a party spokesman has told the BBC”.
“The suspension means Mr Norris, the MP for North East Somerset and Hanham, is also understood to have had the party whip suspended, meaning he is not able to sit as Labour MP in the Commons”.
“The Labour party spokesperson said they could not comment further while the police investigation is ongoing“
Meanwhile during the Police investigation into the SNP and also with what was promoted as the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon (taken in for questioning) we saw that Jackie Baillie could not help herself in commentating further while the police investigation was ongoing into the ‘Live’ SNP investigation.
Where in various ongoing tweets, in a ‘Live’ case she suffered no consequences, she was often one who was seen to take the odd pot shot at the SNP in respect to this, for example this tweet by her:
5 May 2023 (with picture of Police & Blue Tents)
“This might be a close shave for the SNP – but it’s an embarrassment for the people of Scotland. We can’t afford this dysfunctional government any longer”.
30 June 2023
“Having qualified accounts is highly unusual. It points to a significant level of financial incompetence in the SNP which makes you wonder how they run the country. And with the Police investigating the inappropriate use of £600k what auditor would sign off their accounts”?
9 December 2023 (where she retweeted an edition of the Sunday Mail with a front page headline “SNP Fraud Cops probe £95K Jag” with a picture of Nicola Sturgeon outside her house with the car in question (???) in the driveway) her tweet said:
“Extraordinary to see how much has allegedly been wasted on the SNP credit card to keep some people in the manner to which they have become accustomed #OperationBranchform”.
So were…………..
#PoliceScotlandSleepingOnTheJob
Or rather is it rules for some and rules for others as did we not also witness the same indiscretions being made by some , including Journalists, when there was a ‘Live’ investigation in the Alex Salmond case, but where no action was taken by the Police (but I do believe some others , not so lucky , faced a penalty, with one blogger being jailed for being in “contempt of court “).
However now we see that Jackie’s Labour party HQ are giving the previous Tory UK government a run for it’s money in scandals and resignations with their MP’s and Ministers.
Labour in power approx. just over 8 months and already we have seen ….
Tulip Siddiq resigned as Treasury Minister after growing pressure over an anti corruption scandal in Bangladesh .
Health Minister Andrew Gwynne, Health Minister sacked after he sent a string of offensive and abusive WhatsApp messages.
Rosie Duffield Labour MP quit the Labour party as an MP and she told the BBC that Sir Keir Starmer’s team cares “more about greed and power than making a difference” in her first broadcast interview since resigning from the Labour Party.
Louise Haigh resigned as transport secretary after it emerged she pleaded guilty to a fraud offence a decade ago. (She was forced to resign when this story was published in the media).
Anneleise Dodds, the International Development Minister , resigned over the prime minister’s cuts to the Foreign aid budget.
What else could she do ? Defend it as an action ?
Not really, as with Keir Starmer doing this in order to increase funding on defence, then it was , as a blatant cruel act that was sanctioned by him, then she said it would as an action “”remove food and healthcare from desperate people – deeply harming the UK’s reputation”.
(Baroness Chapman of Darlington, formerly a Labour MP up to 2019, was appointed to replace Dodds as the new international development minister, when she was plain old Jenny Chapman and just a Labour MP she lost her seat in the 2019 GE, no worries as Starmer then awarded or rewarded her with a life peerage and now she is a part of the Labour UK government and no one in the UK elected her, as she now sits as a Baroness in the unelected chamber called the HOL).
Mike Amesbury was suspended from the Labour party as a Labour MP when he was charged with assault, when he was convicted he eventually resigned as an MP, so there will now be a By-election in his constituency. I’m sure the people there will be delighted at yet another election for yet another new MP to be voted on, especially so soon after last year’s GE.
Is this not turning out to be a rerun with what we saw happening with the Tories ?
Yet Dame Baillie thinks Labour hold the political high moral ground over the SNP.
She, Baillie, is another one who now sees life coming at her fast, no doubt she will not care as she thinks her many non truth overrides the actual truth of others and she knows the media in Scotland are on her side and her party’s side.
Vote SNP in 2026 to show Jackie Baillie and Labour that they are the “dysfunctional” party in Scotland , whose Labour HQ as the new UK government are showing “a significant level of financial incompetence” and how many ‘Freebies’ did Labour Ministers and Labour Mayors receive that were received to “keep some people in the manner to which they have become accustomed” #GiftsGate
Liz S
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You’re quoting Dame Jackie Baillie MP here from a source dated June 30, 2023, I presume: “Having qualified accounts is highly unusual. It points to a significant level of financial incompetence in the SNP which makes you wonder how they run the country.’ (my emphasis)
Can’t resist this blatant – but hardly irrelevant and hopefully amusing – bit of whataboutery!
From the Senedd Research website (November 9, 2020): ‘Welsh Government accounts qualified for the first time. What does this mean?’
Source: https://research.senedd.wales/research-articles/welsh-government-accounts-qualified-for-the-first-time-what-does-this-mean/
Here we learn: ‘The Auditor General for Wales (AGW) has qualified his opinion on the Welsh Government’s Consolidated Annual Accounts for the first time.
‘The Accounts for 2019-20 (PDF, 1 MB) were qualified because they omitted £739 million of expenditure relating to the Welsh Government’s Coronavirus response.’
Isn’t the internet and Google wonderful tools. If only more journalists in Scotland’s mainstream media would use it in the service of their readers/listeners/viewers to examine context, provide perspective and to expose crass political hypocrisy when reporting Scotland!
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“Isn’t the internet and Google wonderful tools”
It is indeed Stewart, as you state “if only more journalists in Scotland’s mainstream media would use it” , however it seem that is an impossible task, as in deliberately ignoring what is online it then enables them all to just keep on lying.
Strange though how they are always able to trace anything online that they refer to as ‘CyberNat’ related as opposed to their own CyberBritNat related output Ha Ha
Well said Stewart and great comment…..as per.
🙂
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Above comment from me @ 9.26pm to stewartb.
Liz S
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