Pollster confirms support for independence is solid and improved in SIXTEEN polls over two years

The Scottish media love to report a single poll result and to use that to predict dramatic shifts in voter intentions.

Those with more between the ears like to look at more substantial evidence over a longer period to consider what trends there may be.

In six polls going back a year to April 2022, the pollster Savanta has five with a 2% lead for No, one with a 1% lead for No and none with a lead for Yes despite 12 other polls by different pollsters finding Yes leads.

Using identical sampling, this consistency from a pollster thought unsympathetic to Yes, suggests core support for independence is rock solid, only two points behind, and is a formidable platform from which to campaign.

It also confirms the lack of effect that passing ‘SNP crises’ have had on core support.

In the preceding 12 months, ten Savanta polls had No leads averaging 3.7%.


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