Today, just after the Find out Now poll restored a Yes lead for the first time in 9 Nos since early January, Survation find an 8% lead for No and the Times insists the leadership battle is damaging support for the SNP.
I can’t see the data tables yet, so I don’t know what the figure is for SNP as opposed to Yes support.
Anyhow, like Savanta, Survation is a pollster with a strong tendency to find No support.
They found No at 1% and 6% ahead, in the middle of the recent run of Nos, had no survey in the run of 7 Yes results from October to December 2022.
There’s a big gap going back, before we find them at the end of March 2022, with a 5% lead and for No in the middle of a run of 11 for No.
Then it’s all the way back to May and April 2021 with another four No leads at 4%, 5%, 2% and 1%.
Then amid a run of Yes leads in March to April 2021, they find only a 1% Yes lead and a 2% No lead while others are finding Yes leads of up to 6%.
Finally, in January 2021 and December 2020, they find two 2% leads for Yes while others are finding repeated leads of 10-13%.
So, there’s a clear tendency to rarely find a Yes lead and, when they do, to find a much smaller one than Ipsos MORI or Panelbase.
I’ve already pointed to an even stronger tendency in the same direction with Savanta, often used by the Scotsman: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2023/01/16/if-you-want-a-no-for-independence-go-to-savanta-or-survation-for-your-poll/
2 thoughts on “Another pollster who rarely says ‘YES?’”
WHY ARE ALL THESE UNIONIST LIARS AND CHEATS
STILL DISRESPECTING THE FAMILY WILL OF THE MAJORITY OF SCOTS
TJEY SHOULD SORT OUT THEIR SEWAGE DRIVEN COUNTRY
LEAVE SCOTLAND ALONE
Despite avoiding SGP like the plague since “Independence for Somerset” etc took up residence, I did read an interesting observation attributed to James on the commonly applied weighting of the 2014 referendum slewing the figures negatively.
It’s not my field so will leave those more cognisant of the technicalities to comment…
I’m long past the days when 3 word slogans made any impact, “impartiality of polling” being one of them.
Polls these days I regard as a means by which to alter public perceptions rather than reflect them, much as HMS James Cook Inc. etc reports the “news where you are”.
What I can say with absolute certainty is that were HMG not so reliably informed they would lose an Indy referendum (unlike the Cameron era where it almost went horribly wrong) a S30 would be produced in an instant.
London demands a continuum, the Scots are not for continuing – To paraphrase another James, “Tough Shit”