Today’s poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies has No 9% ahead, is the 9th in a row with a No lead, and is worrying Yes supporters but we’ve been here before, actually in much worse places, before.
The current leadership debates are being blamed for the dip.
They probably are but the scale of the dip and the longer history of such polls tells us not to worry. It will pass.
The wikipedia graph above is bit counter-intuitive for Yes supporters with a No lead in the upper half and Yes leads in the lower half.
Once you get used to that, you can see that the current average lead for No, of 6%, is nowhere near as bad as it was in the winter of 2017/18, at above 12%.
If you compare the September 2014 to September 2018 period with that since then, support for Yes has often been in the lead and No leads have never been as bad.
Comparing the last 4 years with the previous 4, we are much stronger and ready for the future.
Courage mes braves!
4 thoughts on “Support trends for Yes in last 4 years much stronger than in the previous 4 years”
All the polls are carried out by organisations that support the unionists , they are English , what do we expect ? there is no independent Scottish polling done even the National newspaper is unreliable because it’s ran by the same people who own the Herald which slates everything Scottish , for goodness sake why do people in Scotland continue to give credibility to these shysters , during the months when Nicola Sturgeon was first foot forward about a de facto referendum you couldn’t find a poll result anywhere , reason ? because they would not have given a result against YES and trying to present a lie would be risky so they waited bided their time til something came along that allowed them better cover – the leader of SNP competition.
Those in favour of Indy are still a majority some are unhappy about GRR some about delays in an Indy vote some about NS and her husband but they would all when it came to it be given a choice of INDY or not and would certainly vote INDY.
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‘Comparing the last 4 years with the previous 4, we are much stronger and ready for the future.’
‘Yes but’ – I think is my response! Whether it’s polling or it’s election results for Holyrood and Westminster, and despite undoubted successes in elections in terms of seats won under the different systems, it’s hard IMHO not to be disappointed that the dial has not shifted more substantially in terms of public support for independence.
After all, look at the factors in play: (i) over a decade of Tory governments in Westminster, government by a party rejected by a majority in Scotland since the 1950s; (ii) Tory delivered austerity; (iii) exposure to the pro-Brexit campaign, then a Brexit referendum result in Scotland overwhelmed by that in England, then a ‘hard’ Brexit; (iv) Boris Johnson elected as PM; (v) a pandemic during which an SNP-run Scottish Government demonstrated real leadership/credibility and won much public trust; (vi) the shambles of the Truss premiership; (vii) actions taken and legislation passed in Westminster undermining devolution piece by piece; (viii) the decision of the Supreme Court that means effectively we are NOT in a voluntary Union. (One might add the emergence of greater support for independence in Wales and the emergence of shifts in politics in NI away from Unionism.)
Back in 2015, surely most pro-independence supporters would have seen such a combination of factors as favourable to building much higher public support for the independence cause in Scotland. And there may be other ‘favourable’ negative factors to which one one could point. Support has risen and been sustained but not by much, not by nearly enough.
So what has restricted the rise, dampened any upward momentum, even in such circumstances: that seems a reasonable question and one worth debating. What has been missing so far: indeed is it accepted that something has been missing? A consistent, compelling positive narrative – e.g. on the economic and social benefits? A solution to our ‘media problem’? Or are c. 50% of voters in Scotland just (legitimately) wedded to the Union and only demography has the potential, gradually, to shift the dial sufficiently?
All three SNP leadership candidates are talking about how to achieve independence – of course. Candidly, I’m not sure I’ve yet heard a comprehensive, compelling ‘theory of change’ that details their logic for linking proposed inputs and activities all the way through to a democratically arrived at outcome, a negotiated dissolution of the Union that gains Scotland as an independent nation-state international recognition.
Perhaps they are keeping their full plan close; or they don’t have anything better than what they have set out so far; or at present there just isn’t anything better that can be set out out with more clarity. Too many dependencies, too many uncertainties, too many unknowns?
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Strangely I find myself in agreement with a letter from Morag Williamson from Edinburgh in today’s National that the SNP’s pledges to ‘restart’ or ‘reignite’ the independence campaign are patronising. I remember when the marches were attracting many thousands, especially in Glasgow and Edinburgh, when SNP MSPs were thin on the ground – even when people were calling for them to show support. Nicola Sturgeon was happy to be present at other events but not at indy marches. I am a member of the SNP and do have a vote for the new leader but, so far, I’m undecided. After reading the post by Stewartb I agree with him. The times I told myself that there was a grand plan behind all the hoo-ha, only to be disappointed. In all of this time I have publicly defended the SNP and the leadership but I’m finding that stance increasingly difficult when I’m now not even sure of my own convictions. These contenders have to do more to convince me, and others, than snipe at each other and the party they have served.
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The Pollsters have been censored and fined many times. Unionists making money. Hedge funds gambling on the results. Cambridge Analytica. They are often wrong, especially with tight margins.
STV and D’Hond’t the loser wins. Imposed without a mandate by unionists.
People who support Independence need to go out and vote every election. To get rid of the opposition. A higher turnout. The SNP/ Independence Parties are still going strong. Despite the appalling opposition. The next few elections will bring Independence,