An 85% win is surely enough for independence

From the Telegraph, moving Starmerwise fast, today:

The exclusive, large-scale MRP poll of 28,000 people found that if there were an imminent general election the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP. Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, would be the Leader of the Opposition.

The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and experts Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote and the Tories down to 23 per cent.

MRP polling means results in individual seats can be calculated. The polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 seats available.

The SNP is the next largest party in the Commons, with 50 MPs, while the Conservatives would be in third place with just 45, down from 365 at the 2019 election.

SNP ‘would overtake Tories in snap Westminster election’ (

This is big reliable poll suggesting the SNP would take 50 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats, 85%.

While, of course, the Tories would recover a bit in England, when it came to a real election vote, they would not in Scotland. The 50 figure remains entirely plausible.

Margaret Thatcher, I think, suggested a simple majority of SNP MPs would be enough for independence.

In 1918, Sinn Féin, won 73 out of 101 seats in Ireland, 72%.


9 thoughts on “An 85% win is surely enough for independence

  1. Ah but ….. the unionist media would start bleating about the unfairness of a system where the Tories poll several million more votes than the SNP but get fewer seats. Of course, the Tories have won most UK general elections despite getting less than half the votes cast. That, of course, is entirely fair!!!!!!

    We in Scotland have not voted a majority of Tory MPs in Scottish constituencies since 1955, yet in 1957, 70, 79, 82, 86, 92, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019 Scotland has been governed by the Tories (once with LibDems) despite there being a minority – on occasions zero – Tory MPs for Scottish constituencies. But as BBC Scotland always smugly days, ‘this is because we are part of the UK’. That is why we are out of Europe despite a 62% remain vote, although BBC Scotland always tells us ‘more than 1million Scots wanted to leave’. Somehow their view matters more than the 2million + who voted Remain.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. OK I know its BBC but the cringe and the look on the face of Dross in his broadcast last night was awful even had the same bit of him coming out of the shop from the one from last year.


  3. By coincidence there is a short letter in today’s Herald posing a cognate issue.
    “AM I alone in wondering how long it will be before some of your correspondents insist that should Yes win the independence vote, it must be unanimous?
    Alan Carmichael, Glasgow ”
    Ever anxious to assist, I calculated the average Yes/No support in opinion polls on Scottish independence for last year. They come out as near to a dead heat as could be expected with Yes on 50.7. Using the “Russell” theorem of a supermajority of 66% for an independence vote to be successful, that would require a 30% uplift on where the polls are now. This is actually quite stable since when support was at 45% or a little more, the requirement was 60%.
    Thus when support is at 77% Unionists will be crying out for a unanimous vote. Not that it needs to stop there. There is always the “confirmatory” referendum (“are you sure?”) and the ‘best of three’ (“are you really really sure?”) and so on. Then there’s getting anyone who ever spent their holidays in Saltcoats should have a vote even if they have never been back. And of course if all else fails they could follow my namesake George’s advice “just say naw!”, which is actually where we are now, unless the Gov General’s ducks remarkably appear in a row.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. To Scott above, I’ve seen that Con PPB on three separate occasions, each time unchanged. It was clearly made at the end of the summer (see the park scenes), and is out of date, as the SC ruled against a 19/10/23 referendum. Why have the Cons not updated it?


  4. Up until Alex Salmond had it changed back in March 2000 the SNP policy was that if the party won a majority of seats in Scotland at a UK general election then that was a mandate to commence negotiations on independence. That position was accepted by Westminster – not least by Margaret Thatcher and John Major. There was no reference in our policy to having to win 50% + 1 of the popular vote to achieve this. As both Westminster and the UK Supreme Court have now effectively ruled out the referendum route to independence then the SNP should revert to its previous policy. UK general elections are contested on the basis of the number of seats won; not the vote share gained in doing so. If the SNP does revert to its previous policy and places it clearly in its manifesto prior to the next UK general election then it will concentrate a number of minds in Westminster.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. This, to me, is obvious.
      A mandate won in an election is how Westminster parties operate. They can happily win mandates based on the mid-30% of those who vote, which might be only a quarter of the total electorate.
      When even Liz Truss can complain her “mandate” wasn’t respected, then our case is on solid ground.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. Totally OT
    I see this morning James Cook is promoting his self-penned “Is Isla Bryson a woman? Nicola Sturgeon’s gender conundrum” in prime spot on the Scotland webpage
    We should be grateful the vast majority of Scots see this latest BBC Scotland and Tory propaganda campaign as another incontinent pigeon from Pacific Quay which continues to run and run…

    Yet what does this continuing and deliberate conflation of the GRA, it’s Reforms and the Equalities Act by journalists say of their integrity, let alone that of the tiresome waste of time at FMQs attempting to exploit it ?

    DRoss and James Cook’s “conundrum” must be “Why does nobody care ?”.


  6. Independence supporters need to get out and vote every election. Council/Local elections 40% turnout. Holyrood elections 50% turnout. GE 60% turnout. Ref 85% turnout. Independence supporters need to get out and vote at every election. To vote out the opposition. That will bring Independence. Appeal to the UN. No opposition to stop it. Westminster has to agree or break UN principles of self determination and self governance when people vote for it. Democracy. No taxation without representation. EU principles. Westminster will get throw out if the UN, with sanctions, for breaking the rules and International agreements and Law.

    Use it or lose it vote for Independence supporting Parties every election.

    Devolution was achieved by appeals to the EU. The Tories blocked it for twenty years after people voted for Devolution. The EU principles had to be upheld or Westminster would be out of EU. What a catastrophe that has turned out to be. A Tory own goal. Support it low. How low can the Tories go. Right out of Office. Not there is the internet. Their corruption is plain to see. Every poor bad decision exposed. More difficult to hide under the Official Secrets Act and ‘D’ notices. The lack of democracy in Scotland. Out voted 10 to 1. The Eastern European States were getting more democratic rights than Scotland by comparison. One of the reasons for Devokution. By with not enough powers. To boast the economy and bring more equal, prosperity. The UK the most unequal place in the world. Influenced by Westminster corruption breaching the Law. The Courts have to sort them out.


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