In the Herald, today (28 December 2022), ‘Sarwar fails to replicate Starmer’s success!’
No!! Whit!! Who’d a thunk? Well Talking Up Scotland on November 19 2022, 39 whole days earlier:
I’m shocked. Kenny Farquharson hasn’t bother to look at the actual support for Scottish Labour to see if they might be replicating the Starmer surge in England.
It’s so easy.
In the last 5 full Scottish polls, August-October 2022, the SNP averaged 46.6% and Labour averaged 26.2%, more than a 20% lead, as the Con support collapsed.
In March-April, the 5 poll averages were 44.8% and 24%, the same lead.
So, a 2% climb for both between March and October? Nothing really.
At the end of 2021, Labour were in 3rd place with the Cons typically 2 to 3% ahead of them and the SNP around 1 to 2% higher than today.
Labour is not so much catching the SNP as getting reluctant rightist-unionists switching.
Re-arranging the deck-chairs on the Titanic?
Then updated on December 17:
From People Polling on 7 December, UK Labour at 47% but Scottish Labour at only 24% with SNP at 54%
From YouGov on 14/15 December, UK Labour at 48% but Scottish Labour at 27% and SNP at 46%.
Other recent polls have no ‘regional’ breakdown.
Two weeks ago, I could write: Regular readers will now have seen reports here of more than 10 sub-polls with 80% suggesting the same thing. Scottish Labour’s reported resurgence is a media myth and wishful thinking by media supporters of Anas Sarwar’s rightist, Starmerite, politics.
You can add another two today. Time for a Scottish Labour leader challenge – Ruth Davidson?