I’m indebted to Leah Gunn Barrett for her help in tracking down the evidence.
First, from a European Parliament report in 2020:
Market forces, technological advances and price developments will continue to drive offshore renewable energy growth over the coming years. Nonetheless, such a change in pace requires overcoming a number of obstacles and ensuring that throughout the supply chain all players can both accelerate and sustain this increase in deployment rate. A greater involvement of the EU and of Member States’ governments is needed, as under current policies the present and projected installation capacity would lead to only approximately 90 GW in 2050.https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2020:741:FIN&qid=1605792629666#footnote14
Second, from Offshore Wind Scotland:
The east coast of Scotland is currently home to the bulk of our offshore wind farms, in various stages of development. Projects include those in operation, those under construction and those that are still in the planning pipeline.
Our oldest operational project, Robin Rigg, dates from 2010 and is in the Solway Firth on the southwest coast. Taken together, these projects amount to over 10GW of offshore wind.
Our latest leasing round, ScotWind, will add a further 25GW to this total over the next 10 years and will extend the wind farms into the west and the northern coasts as well as northern isles. ScotWind also includes 15GW of commercial floating wind sites which will establish Scotland as the number one market for floating wind development.
In addition, there is a ScotWind Clearing Round underway which will see an 18th site added to the ScotWind round. The NE1 site to the East of Shetland is also a floating wind site and could represent up to 2GW of additional capacity.
ScotWind will soon be joined with further projects in our INTOG leasing round aimed at the electrification of our offshore oil and gas infrastructure to help decarbonise their production energy. This will be the first such leasing round in the world aimed at helping the oil and gas industry in the UK reach their Net Zero Basin target as part of the North Sea Transition Deal. All of the above puts Scotland in the top ten of global offshore wind markets with up to 42GW deliverable before 2035.https://www.offshorewindscotland.org.uk/
Scotland’s 42GWh by 2035 is at least 46.66% of the EUs North Sea basin 90GWh even by 2050.
The EU’s population around the North Sea basin is around 200 million. Scotland’s is 5.4 million, 2.7%.