Assaults on NHS staff are falling

Unison, a trade union, does not publish its findings in a way that can be properly scrutinised, picking and choosing, with its press allies, to get a shocking headline.

So, I have had to scrabble around to get the data trends from their sites and from newspaper reports.

First, two key statements from the above Herald story:

The last explanation is commonly the best for understanding supposed increases in crime. NHS Scotland has implemented a simpler, online procedure, which any social scientist might be particularly interested in.

However, leaving that aside the reporting is wrong-headed.

See this:

So, 17 557 is ‘soaring?’

Why then in 2015 were there 18,636 cases?

Click to access ViolentAssaultsonPublicServiceStaff_UNISONScotlandFollowUpSurvey_Oct2015.pdf

In 2019, reported cases fell to 14,714, before climbing again to 17 557 in 2021/22.

Unison reveals that almost 40,000 assaults on public service staff have been reported this year

These are annual fluctuations which all statisticians recognise and which mean that you need to look at around 5 or more years of data to detect any reliable trend.

What is the trend from 2015? Down. If there has been an increase in reporting, the trend might be even more down.


3 thoughts on “Assaults on NHS staff are falling

  1. This political slight of hand is the same phenomenon as temperature statistics. Here is another example.

    All temperature scary ‘green’ trend graphs show an increase of nearly 2C from 1880. However if you take a longer view there had been a mini ice age between 1350 and 1870. The increase we see now is the rise back from a low. If you go further back to see that in Roman Britain is was 1C hotter than today with grapes grown around York. People use trends that suit their political priorities. That is why Scotland had a high population relatively speaking in the past as the weather was better for agriculture.

    That stated the world as a whole is warming up. If you study geography you will see that these long term trends repeat and are due to orbits of planets in huge cycles of about 40,000 years. Plate techtonics etc alternating ocean currents affecting warming and cooling. Yes man pollutes and we must not, but it is not man that is doing most changes to temperature.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. andy
      Sorry but i must take serious issue with your comments re climate change on the grounds that if you use the data regards CO2 and from when mankind seriously and exponentially increased their omissions from 1930 on till today
      Then if you apply this to all other vital data regarding increase of rising temps, ice melt, rising seas etc
      Then it becomes patently obvious that indeed not only that our activities are the root cause but more importantly all such data presented by means of a proper statistical graph form ,Then all are either exponential
      Or about to do so
      There is no known case in statistics that when a graph becomes exponential that the resultant effects of such does not arise
      Furthermore when one applies consequential amplification to such then indeed we are now in a impossible situation
      As for CO2 being a insulator and inducer of increasing temps.then a Swedish Scientist in the late 20th century proved beyond all doubt CO2 can only lead to increasing temps.
      I have instinctively known for 50 yrs as to exactly where all this has led to and that in all probability
      Homo Sapiens shall be extinct within 3 generations all due to rapid sudden environmental changes , which science clearly demonstrates that no species can possibly survive such change as none are evolutionary equipped to adapt and survive and when population collapse exceeds 97 % then it is curtains


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