Poll: Pro-independence parties at 55%

(c) Sky News

From YouGov, based on polling of 169 Scots on 4-5th August:

  • Con 22%
  • Labour 16%
  • Lib Dem 5%
  • SNP 51%
  • Reform UK 1%
  • Green 4%

Also, worth noting, the Scottish sample was the most certain it would vote at 63% compared to 52-58% in other parts of the UK.

This is of course just a sub-poll with a small sample but the previous YouGov polls tell a similar story with 56% for pro-independence parties on 27-28 July and 50% on 21-22 July.

8 thoughts on “Poll: Pro-independence parties at 55%

        1. Exactly. I’m a panel member and wasn’t asked. In fact, in my dozen or so years as a panel member, and after revealing myself to be an SNP voter, I can only recollect being asked one question on politics.

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  1. As for Westminster and its thoughts

    My interperating of such polls would be if sensible
    ” The Gathering Storm ”
    For them dark days await
    For us the Sun shall be upon our faces and the fair wind on our backs

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  2. I put these numbers into Electoral Calculus with a view to a WM general election. They have a “Scotland” option to put in data here as well as the UK data.
    The outcome would be most interesting. Even with Labour romping ahead – I used the average of polls in the first 10 days in August from “The Commons” for the UK – left Labour 21 seats short of majority on 305, with the Tories on 250. There would only be two ways for them to secure a majority. One would be to stitch something together with the Lib Dems )14 seats) and MPs from Northern Ireland, but as Sinn Feinn dont take up their seats that would be Ulster Unionins, so that would be fun. For the avoidance of doubt, the Greens take only one seat.
    The only other way would be with the SNP with 56 seats. There has been much talk of SNP MPs “settling down” rather than “settling up”, and it is likely that Labour would do what they usually do, and dare the SNP to “bring them down” and “let the Tories in, just like 79”. But a situation like that is one where they just have to play hardball, understanding the perilous situation of the WM parties.
    One other thing, if this seemed plausible during any general election campaign , the media would roast Starmer with “SNP coalition of chaos” etc, encouraging people to stick with the Tories to keep Sturgeon out – or better still ignore her :-). However, Electoral Calculus offers the Scotland option because they recognize that “things are different in Scotland”, and so they are. What the above consideration points to is the importance of holding on to the SNP level of support if England becomes more fluid, with Labour’s lead being eroded and the Toriees (or Lib Dems) making gains. What this is most likely to do is to create a still worse situation (for the UK) of the largest party falling short by more than 21 seats, and thus needing the SNP even more.

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    1. We should hope, that for Scotland, the situation at Westminster becomes irrelevant.

      However, as I have written elsewhere, if Labour want to “dare” the SNP, then that works both ways.
      The SNP can easily put down an amendment to any Labour Bill, vote only for that, and “dare” Labour not to support them.

      It would be my opinion, that Westminster is heading for a decade of chaotic politics and minority governments, with neither Labour or the Tories able to gain traction as the economy collapses.
      Serious times, and Scotland needs to get out.

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  3. Despite the shenanigans of Johnson et al, between then Labour and the LibDems aggregate is 21% while the Tories have 22%. Given the vacuity of Starmer’s ‘policies’ and his ‘patriotism’, conservative (small ‘c’) voters are probably saying we may as well vote for the real thing because the other two are offering heehaw.

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