Covid care home restrictions in Scotland caused fewer deaths says evidence

In the above:

Another report from Edinburgh University said 50% of all Covid-related deaths in Scotland between March and June 2020 had involved care home residents.

It said Scotland had the highest rate among care home residents in the UK during the first wave of the pandemic.

And it said a lack of testing before hospital patients were discharged to care homes contributed to Covid outbreaks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61814662

The Edinburgh report is deliberately misleading. A higher percentage of Scotland’s deaths were in care homes in the first wave but there were pro rata with England, far fewer deaths overall on both places. There were fewer in hospitals because Scottish hospitals were better at infection control and better staffed and because there was less infection due to greater public compliance with Scottish Government pandemics rules.

Conveniently ignored:

In the First Wave in 2020, research from the University of Stirling:

Care homes in England experienced the highest increase in excess deaths at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to those in the rest of the UK, according to new research. A study – co-ordinated from the University of Stirling’s Management School – found that care homes in England recorded a 79 percent increase in excess deaths, compared to 66 percent in Wales, 62 percent in Scotland and 46 percent in Northern Ireland.

https://www.stir.ac.uk/news/2020/august-2020-news/care-homes-in-england-had-greatest-increase-in-excess-deaths-at-height-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Why was this the case?

The Scottish health secretary, contrary to her English equivalent, ensured earlier vaccination in care homes, in line with the JCVI guidance, to do so before all other groups and, consequently achieve a far lower death rate:

Image

The above graph revealing starkly the cost in lives of the failure in England to fully implement the JCVI guidance and vaccinate care home residents before all other groups was compiled by Na Sirf Musiqi https://twitter.com/nasirfmusiqi from official sources.

This shows the impact of the vaccinations as they began to confer immunity on many in Scottish care homes from the middle of January 2021:

Image

The contrast was stark in the first few months:

From the 1st of January 2021 until the 26th February, 9 088 care home residents in England died from confirmed Covid-19.

From the 1st of January 2021 until the 28th February, 532 care home residents in Scotland died from confirmed Covid-19.

England has ten times the population so pro-rata might have been expected to have ten times as many deaths, 5 320, but had around 3 700 more.

Had NHS England, followed the JCVI advice and vaccinated care home residents as a priority above all others, 3 700 lives might have been saved.

Who told them not to follow the JCVI advice? Who told NHS Scotland to follow it?

Sources:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/numberofdeathsincarehomesnotifiedtothecarequalitycommissionengland

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-additional-data-about-adult-care-homes-in-scotland/

3 thoughts on “Covid care home restrictions in Scotland caused fewer deaths says evidence

  1. We have a number of reports – 14, I think, over 2000 pages – published late on the previous day. I ascribe to sinister motives behind ‘late’. Clearly, the media cannot have read these reports in full, but will have scoured the executive summary to select and decontextualise particular aspects to suit their political agenda.

    The purpose of the enquiry and the many reports that it has commissioned is to try to provide an objective description of what happened during the pandemic, which was a fluid situation in which people were operating with incomplete information and under pressure.

    From such a report, it is hoped that there are lessons for future practices, including things which were effective and things which, with hindsight, could have been done better.

    There might well be aspects which indicate failures and wrong decisions, which might require some disciplinary action. But, the key point is how to prepare effectively for the future.

    It is certain their will be further viruses and there will, of course, be novel factors related to these which will be discovered only when people become infected. This is the evolutionary nature of such organisms.

    But what the media want is BLAME. once someone is BLAMED, then, apparently, the problem is resolved immediately and the wealthy remain on top.

    Liked by 5 people

    1. But the media, supported by the three unionist party leaders in HR, want to blame anybody but the UK government so it would appear that it’s essential we go to the top of the list, as usual. May I say, an excellent summary. The FM has never denied that the SG may have got it wrong on some occasions – after all, they were dealing with the unknown.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Out of curiosity John, when did you do the screen shot which shows the article 11 hours old ?
    I clicked on your link to the story, and spotted it was 11 MINUTES old – Presumably the HMS James Cook Tardis has been deployed again, or the Scotland Office propagandist is back on shift and editing the article to ensure it remains “current” in prime spot.

    On the face of it the article has been selective as to which University research fitted the agenda, but pardon my being picky, note the phrasing of the statement “Scotland had the highest rate among care home residents in the UK during the first wave of the pandemic”.
    Why “rate” and not “mortality rate”, rather than implying “death” from the preceding paragraph ?
    There is no logical reason Edinburgh NAPIER researchers could have arrived at a conclusion on deaths contrary to that of Stirling using the same data as you pointed out.

    Finally – “And it said a lack of testing before hospital patients were discharged to care homes contributed to Covid outbreaks”
    – No reference whatever to what testing capacity was available at the time, which IIRC was extremely limited that early in the pandemic – The researchers would have known that and mentioned it, so why is that omitted ?
    – Why highlight the hospital infection vector without mentioning staff or community vectors, researchers would have done so, why was this omitted ?

    It’s an unattributed propaganda piece absent the usual sage Linda Winters “Analysis”, carefully framed for political ends, NOT to assist understanding…
    Presumably there will be follow up articles with faux-shock/outrage from Tsunami Baillie and Disaster Baillie, hourly bulletins, and Kaye Adams phone-ins…

    Liked by 3 people

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