Pensions after independence: Thinktank ignores herd of elephants hammer blow to their report

THE SNP’s claim that the state pension would be paid at the same rate under independence as within the Union has been directly challenged by one of Scotland’s leading thinktanks.

An article published today by the Fraser of Allander Institute says past National Insurance contributions by Scottish workers cannot be taken as a guarantee of future entitlement.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19901791.fraser-allander-institute-challenges-snp-claims-independence-state-pension/

The Herald headlines the above apparent undermining of Scotland’s pension prospects after independence with an opportunistic, techy, but unworldly, piece by the FoAI.

Here’s their thesis:

Yes, true, but what about those elephants in the negotiating room?

Is there any possibility at all that the UK would renege on the pension rights of those who have paid in for decades before independence? Leaving aside the contradiction of doing so only for Scotland and with those in Ireland, Spain or wherever, still drawing UK pensions, here are some big economic elephants that might influence the outcome.

  1. £200 billion of debt that we technically need not pay.
  2. Access to the 77 million tonnes of oil-equivalent gas, 82% of all UK production in Scottish waters and not dependent on Russia.
  3. Access to more than 25GWh of electricity, surplus to demand in Scotland, enough for every home in England and not dependent on France.
  4. Access to a nearby source of high quality food exports.
  5. Access to a massive supply of water as global warming desertifies the south-east every summer.

I’ve no doubt missed others.

To be fair, I haven’t read the full FoAI report. Correct me if they have considered the above.

31 thoughts on “Pensions after independence: Thinktank ignores herd of elephants hammer blow to their report

  1. Under that scenario,presumably the UK government can simply stop paying UK state pensions any time they like.
    They seem to be doing that by stealth anyway but how would people in England react to that possibility?

    Liked by 6 people

    1. How would people in England react to that possibility, if they were people in another part of that ‘UK’? For example, my nation, Scotland has existed in history since prehistoric times, over 12,000 years ago… so, When did England’s London become superior to the sovereign Scottish people; or is this another ineffable question?

      Like

    2. Good luck with that scenario.
      Heres an obvious counteraction: Get yer subs and warheads out of Scotland with immediate effect.

      And the other stuff mentioned in other comments.

      WM dont fancy having the status of owning nukes and nowhere in blighty to dock them.

      Like

    3. The cheerleaders of the Union will say anything to sway opinion away from Independence!
      If people have worked and paid taxes all their lives then the UK Govt will have not have any right to deny the people of Scotland their pensions! If they do then we demand all the money they took from us grom oil revenue!

      Like

  2. A more preposterous synopsis of a thesis I’ve never read – It has nothing to do with pension pots or the nationality of the individual, it is a right as a contributor to the state pension system.
    Admittedly HMG could rewrite the laws and even do away with the pension entirely for everyone, but the chances of passing such a law and having all limbs where they were afterward are slim to none.

    Liked by 5 people

    1. Further to my earlier comments, my nation, Scotland has existed in history since prehistoric times, over 12,000 years ago… so, When did England’s London become superior to the sovereign Scottish people; or is this another ineffable question?

      Like

      1. When it grew massive due to the input of Scotland’s 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Oil & Gas monies.
        London built with Scottish money while The Oil capital of Europe (Aberdeen) still looks like a 💩 hole, Dundee looks better, Oil Capital of Europe 😂🤣😂🤣 in name only maybe.
        The whole of Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and the North of England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 from Manchester and all above IGNORED, FORGOTTEN ,the only worry is Westmonster and London, BAD SHOW, WE NEED INDEPENDENCE 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿👍😎

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    2. This scaremongering about pensions is upsetting some people and worked last time to stop older people voting YES
      There is no UK pension pot
      Working Scots pay NI which goes to WM
      Dept of Work and Pensions then pay state pension to all pensioners

      WHEN we become independent we can have the same system
      The Scottish Govt will set the Scottish State Pension
      As we will retain ALL our money raised in Scotland it may be that the Scottish a pension could be higher than the English one

      Also there may be money due back to us from negotiations with UK

      Liked by 2 people

  3. In 2014 all Westminster Brit Nat parties asserted rUK would be the “continuator state”, accruing all assets, liabilities and Treaty obligations. Fine with me, as this would also free-up Scotland from any debt (which in fairness, over the last 50 years we are NOT responsible for), and so would start our independent life debt-free.

    Paying pensions would then be a doddle, but this refusal to meet pension obligations for people who have paid in, is a lamentable failure, both of judgement and morality..

    That the Brit Nat media and commentators are GLOATING about this reneging, shows exactly what kind of people they are!

    Liked by 8 people

  4. Given the present Tory Administration cavalier attitude to binding international treaties like the recent EU one , their refusal to act on a UN instruction on the Chagos Islands , their illegal attempts to prorogue Parliament – it would not be a huge step for the rumpUK after Scottish Independence to renege on previously agreed Pension commitments .
    But as has been pointed out above , WE will have a far stronger hand to play when the rumpUK comes abegging for OUR resources .
    An old Scottish expression springs to mind when this happens – Go F*** Y ourself !

    Liked by 4 people

    1. “Brit Nat parties asserted rUK would be the “continuator state”, I’ve recently read here… Firstly, wHO’s qualified to state this?! Perhaps the “Brit Nat parties” may answer some of my questions? I really DO NOT think so! Like much of wha’s encountered on social media, it is merely drawn from personal opinions and so forth!

      If one cannot read such without questioning? Then the writer has succeeded, to some degree or other… the reader has become one of ‘The Sheeple’! Someone somewhere has been successful!?

      Like

  5. Let Westminster play any hard ball they want
    We have The Ace to make a Royal Flush
    When free
    That Ace of Spades is
    Get your Nuclear Subs and Warheads out of our Sovereign territory and waters NOW
    And by Gawd they fully are aware that ace is up our sleeve , far less the Ace of hearts referred to as Renewables as Nuclear and fossil energy spiral out of control whilst English mis governance
    Leaves them hog tied to ever increasing energy costs, with no simple quick fix solution remotely in sight

    Let the game begin,Clown Boris has taken us to the starting line

    Liked by 4 people

  6. Leaving aside the basic fact – this is nothing but the Unionists again ratcheting-up Project Fear II, and therefore a load of pish – the thing which worries me, as a pensioner, is that the SNP is talking of keeping the Pension in an INdependent Scotland the same as in the UK.

    No way, I want a rise.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. socratesmacsporran
      Fret not
      As the 1st free election after Indy for Holyrood,The tories have no chance,Labour very little so The SNP more than likely form the 1st true full power Scottish Parliament at the very least will retain former UK pension levels
      Inc.of restoring the Triple lock
      And proposals to set up a completely new and far more substantial but fairer State Pension
      No way can Tory or Labour win any substantial majority between them
      Which in turn if so they would be used for none other than nefarious Unionists purposes
      To undermine, impoverish and collapse the newly Independent Scotland
      Westminster already have a contingency
      Plan in place to not only encourage such
      Traitors but also Highly Reward them
      They have a colossal track record in such
      When colonies finally break free
      Ireland was shackled very cleverly to England after breaking free
      Those shackle were smashed to pieces when Ireland joined the EU, And the economic and social progress since has been astronomical
      Fear not because the one and only thing we shall lose is The Ball and Chains fixed upon our ankles

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Quite simply stated, yet seriously beyond debate! When other nations recognise the realities of their own political situations and what the solution actually is; this solution is fully supported by the United Nations and that is entirely and fully beyond dispute! (The right of self-determination for all peoples is enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations)… enough said, I hope?

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  7. You are missing the point, Prof. It doesn’t matter if stuff like this is easily disproved. It’s out there now and truth is still putting on its boots. What is really needed is the truth coming out before the lies but how much will the media allow that?

    Liked by 2 people

    1. There is no chance of any truth coming out of the media which shows independence in the anyway desirable. In 2014 BBC Scotland were merely there to provide prompts to sell the union for the No side, STV I remember had David Torrance as the impartial commentator.

      It’s going to be a tough struggle, not one we are going to win on the traditional media.

      Like

  8. Surely the whole argument should be why there is no pension pot. There used to be and it was in the billions. Don’t blame it on us living longer either. If our pension pot was used for something other than our pensions then we need to know about it, Mr Brown.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Kelticgirl
      You enquire as to where UK pension pot gone
      Simples
      It has been blown propping up a collapsing
      Empire as the Empire England go bankrupt ( Techically they so now )
      Which when we break free without doubt England collapses and fall into the merciless
      IMF for funding at hideous payback terms along with IMF insistence that Austerity fiscal policies firmly in place
      Prior any funds lent
      And that is when Scottish life long NI
      payment to the UK treasury Scottish pensions are at most danger
      We by force put our pension monies into their delusional, economic suicidal coffers

      Liked by 1 person

    2. “Surely the whole argument should be why there is no pension pot” – Not necessarily – A pension pot is usually invested anyway, what HMG did was recycle the investment on an IOU and sever long standing commitments by them to top it up since inception in 1946, then welch on the IOU.

      The myth of “can’t afford it” needs knocked on the head, HMG can blow billions on failed strategies, perhaps time they blew some the way of pensioners instead of treating them as ready political targets. It’s not that any of them will ever need the state pension, and that is central to the problem, them and us.

      Liked by 3 people

  9. John
    No matter what
    Truth is Truth
    Why because what ever it refers to actually occurred, and unless on good terms with a certain Dr.whom i do believe goes by the name of Who, such can NEVER be altered EVER
    That is a Universal Truth always has and always shall be
    Anything else is a figment of the imagination whether by accident or design entirely nefarious,spurious and disingenuous
    So John keep presenting Facts & Truth
    Why
    Because such is Reality,and nothing other reality can ever possibly exist anything else can only exist as a lie
    Which is far as can get from reality

    Like

  10. While I agree that Scotland would likely have a strong hand in the negotiations and some sort of compromise would likely be reached on pensions with UK Gov contributing, I’m not sure if this argument is a good one for the SNP to adopt.

    It gives the impression an independent Scotland would need the rUK to pay Scottish pensions. In reality, the tax base that currently pays pensions in Scotland would transfer to Scottish control and Scotland would have no issues paying those pensions. This is the point that should be emphasised. Debate should focus on how we’d increase pensions in an independent Scotland to be more in line with western EU.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The simplest solution is the UK continues to pay those due to be paid by them on the UK earnings/taxation system, SG pays what it is due them likewise…
      What SG do about pensions in the sense of pension pots or paying from revenues or increases is for a day when we have all the information instead of the shutters down approach of the GERS monstrosity an the UQ Treasury…
      I’m sure SG will be able to increase pensions markedly, but perhaps let’s not cloud the immediate problem of escaping the mess which is the United Queendom.

      Liked by 2 people

  11. OH OH THE SCOTS MONEY HANDLERS ARE ON THE HERALD
    SPINNING THEIR UNIONIST TALES OF WOE

    WHEN WILL THEY EVER TELL THE TRUTH

    Like

  12. When workers paid their National Insurance, they created a legal obligation between themselves and the State, enforceable by law. UK Pensions are paid to people across the world regardless of which country they reside in, so why should Scotland be any different? Just more scaremongering.

    Liked by 5 people

  13. The bull begins – anyone believing this rubbish needs their head examined. More & more of this kind of stuff is expected the nearer we get to a referendum, Thankfully this time we are more able to recognise the absolute bombardment of lies & misinformation. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

    Liked by 1 person

  14. rUK would not recieve any Tax or NI contributions from Scotland on independence. These would go instead to Holyrood so the Scot Gov would have the money to pay pensions (irrespective of whether or not rUK Gov had a legal or moral obligation to pay)
    I saw the following figures for Scotland on-line today, apparently from Tim Rideout:
    Annual NI = £11,476m
    Annual (state) Pensions = £8,517m
    Leaves £2959m surplus for other benefits.
    Source Table 1.1 & Box 3.2 GERS 2021
    This is perhaps the simplest and most foolproof rebutal of the unionist “your pension is in danger” arguement.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Many people seem to forget that Scotland collects it’s own tax and NI and will continue to do that on independence. It will not send that to the UK. It will pay pensions from that money. Except that if we have our own currency and central bank issuing it there will be no problem about paying for services and pensions.

      Like

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