ONS reveals England’s case rate is 33% higher than in Scotland

We know that reported case numbers are likely to be lower than actual infection levels because of non-reporting by many and because of failures in the testing programmes, especially in England.

The UK-based Office for National Statistics employs sophisticated methods to generate more plausible figures

In the period immediately after the new measures kicked in, in Scotland and were not applied in England, there is a sharp difference in the two estimates.

Based on the ONS estimates, the infection level in England for 25th to 31st December 2021 (6%) was 32.7% higher than in Scotland (4.52%).

Wonder why the Torygraph does not read the ONS data?

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11 thoughts on “ONS reveals England’s case rate is 33% higher than in Scotland

  1. The Torygraph do NOT read ONS data
    Because they and their ilk are inflicted with a rare eye disease that i do believe may be referred to as

    Liked by 2 people

  2. What is also worthy of note is that the ranges between the upper and lower 95% limits for England and Scotland do not overlap. In fact there is a substantial gap between the upper limit for Scotland and the lower limit for England, which suggests that there is a statistically significant difference between infection rates, possibly nearer the 99% significance level.

    I suspect that Reporting Scotland will just look and see “England has bigger numbers” so it must be better.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. O/T – for information and possible amusement, the latter from imagining what could have been made by the corporate media and BBC in Scotland of what follows – if the substance was reversed.

    The Public Accounts Committee of the House of Commons has just (9 January) reported on the Tory government’s proposed ‘Environmental Land Management Scheme’ designed to replace EU farm support in England. I highlight here an input to the Committee’s evidence gathering from the Vice-President of the National Farmers Union (Tom Bradshaw)

    From Para 21 of the main report: ‘We (the Committee) therefore asked witnesses about the risk that young farmers would leave the industry because they were unable to wait to see what would happen to the sector in the longer term. The National Farmers’ Union recognised this concern and told us about young farmers who were considering moving to Scotland, where there is greater certainty over the support on offer.’ !!

    From the transcript of oral evidence, we learn that Mr Bradsaw said this: ‘There is concern. Not so long ago, I was at a meeting up in Cumbria with a tenant farmer. His two sons were in the meeting, and the most worrying part for me was when I asked them, “Are you interested in taking on the tenancy?” These are people who should be absolutely thriving and raring to go. Their response was, “Well, we are off to Scotland, because the framework looks better up there than it does in England”.’

    Enough for a Herald, a Scotsman or BBC Scotland headline? Probably – if circumstances were reversed.

    On the substantive matters, this from the report’s summary may be of interest (with my emphasis):

    ‘The Scheme’s success depends on increases in farming productivity alongside changes in land use that will bring environmental benefits, but the Department has GIVEN NO DETAIL about how either the necessary productivity increases or environmental benefits will be brought about, nor how these will offset the Scheme’s dramatic effect on English farmers, who will see their income from direct payments reduce by more than half by 2024–25.

    ‘The Department concedes its confidence in the scheme LOOKS LIKE BLIND OPTIMISM without the details of what it has planned, and the lack of information from the Department early enough to allow farmers to plan their businesses and take full advantage of the new opportunities the Department is CAUSING ANXIETY in the sector, exacerbated by a HISTORIC LACK OF TRUST caused by the Department’s PAST FAILURES IN MANAGING FARM PAYMENTS. The Department’s engagement with the farming sector is improving, but there is still a long way to go.

    ‘The Department has also NOT EXPLAINED HOW the Scheme’s changes in land use will not SIMPLY RESULT IN MORE FOOD BEING IMPORTED, with the environmental impacts of food production being “exported” to countries with lower environmental standards.’

    It’s a damning report from a Committee with nine of 16 members Tories!

    Source: https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/8357/documents/85142/default/

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Indeed. I hear that farners in England plan on growing 1/3 LESS produce this coming year. That’s not good and not taking back control, as the Tories promised it’s the opposite. There are going to be grants given out to farmers in England, from the UK/EngGov, to ‘rewild’ their land. No details as to what the rules will be regarding that scheme. Will that go to very rich ‘farmers’, and once rewilded, which can’t be achieved overnight, who will have access to the land, or will it be a case of more hunting grounds for the rich. What sort of rewilding will it entail? Forest? might ‘farmers’ be more keen to use/sell the land for expensive housing?

      Scotland needs to secure independence and fast as possible before the s**t really hits the fan in England.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. From the Public Accounts Committee’s report, some pretty fundamental issues raised including increased, longer term dependence on food imports:

        ‘We are not convinced that the Department sufficiently understands how its environmental and productivity ambitions will impact the food and farming sector over the next decade. Farmers will be required to free up land currently used for food production to produce environmental benefits, for example converting farmland to forestry. This may result in an increase in food imports and possibly the price of food into the UK, potentially exporting the UK’s environmental impacts through food being produced in other countries where environmental standards are lower.’

        And from its recommendations: ‘The Department (DEFRA) should urgently explain to the Committee, showing its forecasts both for changes in land use and resulting changes in payments to farmers, how it expects its farming programmes to affect food production and farm productivity in England and report annually to Parliament on the level of food price inflation together with any changes to the proportion of the food we consume that is produced in the UK, which was 53% in 2018.’

        So, ‘may result in an increase in food imports’ – from an independent Scotland?

        Liked by 2 people

        1. Yep, great time to start handing cash to ‘farmers’ in England NOT to grow food when the UK, Brexit UK/Eng/Britain whatever it’s called these days, is an isolated Island with no pals at all really, and if the NI protocol is enacted, the yookay will be facing sanctions from the US and EU, fantastic situation to be in. Tragic for Scotland, and it’s only just the start.

          It would take years to plan a change of land use to ‘rewild’ it from farmland, and in England it will be full of pesticides and GM, though I’m sure Scotland has plenty pesticides in the land as well.
          So is England going to open up their land to the people? No it is not, it’s all barbed wire and ‘no trespass’ signs everywhere, the ‘rewild’ plenty dosh to hand out idea, is a ploy to appease the well off and rich farmers, take the heat off of ENG/Brexit catastrophe.


        2. The UK may need aid in the form of food from abroad sometime in the future, (‘taking back control’, not) though if Scotland takes their land back and gets it’s act in gear pronto to grow much more food, using polytunnels in winter, they might just be able to survive.


    1. Thanks for there alert on this. Isn’t get ‘everything but independence’ an interesting way to have it put?

      One question will be what falls between ‘everything’ and ‘independence’ – and why for Unionists does whatever falls within this gap so crucial but sufficient for them.

      I can’t see my mind being changed. And I can’t see it aligning with the view expressed on devolution in 1983 by Jo Grimond, Liberal leader:

      ‘‘I would rather begin by assuming that power should rest with the people who entrust it to their representatives to discharge the essential tasks of government.

      ‘Once we accept that the Scots and the Welsh are nations, then we must accord them parliaments which have ALL the normal powers of government, except for those THAT THEY DELEGATE to the United Kingdom government or the EEC.’ (my emphasis)

      Not about what we ‘get’ (given or allowed) but rather it must be about what we, Scotland’s voters, ‘want’.

      Liked by 2 people

  4. Best start buying some seeds now folks if you have a wee garden, window box or allotment if very lucky. I find Chard and spinach and lettuce reasonably easy, also Russian Kale grows through winter, runner beans grow in any conditions, pots are easy. Other than that, carrots, onions and other types of beans, I find very hard to grow.
    We need a longer growing season(s) though…

    Liked by 1 person

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