Want a NO majority, who you gonna call? Savanta ComRes!

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There have been 47 Scottish independence polls by major pollsters in 2021. 22 have given a No majority, 5 have been tied and 20 have given a Yes majority.

Savanta ComRes, who only appeared for the first time in August 2020, have done 12 of them with 10 returning a No majority, 1 tied and only 1 with a Yes majority, in January. That’s a very negative set compared to Opinium with 2 Yes and 1 tied or Panelbase with 4 Yes and 3 No, or Ipsos MORI with 2 Yes and 1 No.

Savanta ComRes has attracted concerned comment before. On March 7th, I posted:

James Kelly, the thinking man’s James Kelly, has posted these comments on the Savanta Com Res poll for the Scotsman which purports to show a clear lead for NO, for the first time in more than a year:

“these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention..these figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll.”

In other words this is not a standard poll, and we have absolutely no idea whether a poll conducted in the normal way would show a Yes lead or a No lead.  Which begs the obvious question: why on earth has this poll been published?

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/savanta-comres-poll-yes-48-no-52.html

The other two polls giving NO a lead, in the last few days, from Survation/Daily Record and Panelbase/Sunday Times, returned a non-significant 1% lead.

MSM_Monitor has some thoughts on why the poll was published at all:

Why might a failure to weight the figures for voter turnout matter? Well SNP and Conservative expressions of turnout tend to be higher, 82% and 80% in the last Savanta ComRes poll for Westminster voting intentions, while Labour and LibDem turnout tends to be lower, 70% and 59% in the same poll. The same pattern can be found in the poll before.

A pattern suggests something different being done, perhaps in the construction of their sample?

ComRes has been accused of an ‘inbuilt conservative bias‘ in the past: https://www.ministryoftruth.me.uk/2013/05/02/comres-polls-an-inbuilt-conservative-bias/

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8 thoughts on “Want a NO majority, who you gonna call? Savanta ComRes!

  1. The suspect polls are what may be referred to as
    Loading the dice
    Weighting the Roulette wheel
    Rigging the deck of cards
    Fixing the odds
    Bribing a key player in heavily backed outcome of the result
    Overall working the odds in your favour
    And The English colonist kid you on they
    Abiding by the rules as they do in cricket
    In these instances it most certainly not a game and most certainly NOT cricket old chap
    Tis a matter of the highest order for all citizens of Scotland and future generations
    As for England Tis a matter of bankruptcy and utter loss of prestige

    Liked by 1 person

  2. The Scotsman was once a highly regarded “paper of record” which meant it scrupulous in the accuracy of its news content and journalism.
    When a paper has fallen so far from its own previous high standards, it should be banned from using the name “Scotsman” as a breach of contract with the public.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Polling was always been about gauging popular opinion, but that it is capable of steering public opinion is undeniably a tool of those who would manipulate.
    At one extreme you have the SiU line, on the other the more subtle “nudging”, or the results informing others doing the “nudging”.

    The long legal battle over forcing release of polling information which HMG commissioned is a case in point, since it will likely demonstrate the why and when of what the Tories did over time.

    James Kelly’s criticism of the Scotsman’s publishing it is perfectly valid, but to be fair, it’s a long time since the Scotsman or any of Scotland’s media did honest journalism.

    Liked by 4 people

  4. The corrupt Polling companies and hedge funds trying to influence the vote. Politicians and their cronies corruption. Especially in tight margins. They make £Billions. The wealthier screwing the economy,. So they can line their pockets making people poorer. Lowering the standard of living. Putting up the costs for everyone else. Unequal and unfair. Brexit and Austerity. The twin reapers. The grim reaper coming earlier. Life expectancy going down. Under the Tories in the south.

    The politicians and polling companies making £Millions.. Interconnected by the political cabal. Censored and fined many times for breaking electoral Laws and rules. They still get away with it. It is worth their while. They never go to prison for gerrymandering. They make £Millions and cost £Billions of public monies,

    The corruption of the political system. Breaking electoral rules, gerrymandering, breaking data protection illegally and the stock exchange legislation. Breaking Purdah. Lying and continually making false promises. To influence the Polls and the result.

    The piper pays the tune. To try get the result they want. They polling industry are culpable. The bookie know better. They employ better analyse. Even they can get it wrong but not so often. Polling is big business. It needs a major overhaul to stop corruption within it. Like the UK Gov corrupt beyond comprehension. Causing illegal wars and ruining the world economy,

    Like

    1. Gordon
      You hit the nail on the head with regards the bookies
      My Father always used to say at election times
      Do not listen to all these chattering so called experts ( Idiots )
      If you really want to know who is going to win
      Go ask the bookie
      Why because if he gets it wrong, a lot of his own money is lost
      So in turn that gives me a good idea
      Once Indy ref 2 bill passed
      There shall be a avalanche of polls focusing on
      1 Who wins Yes or No
      2.Do we really want Indy ref 2
      Without doubt the Union side have their act together with regards RIGGED polls
      So let all on the Yes side have a wee flutter with the bookies and rig things our way or more like let the truth prevail

      I can just see The Red Top media headlines
      Bookies make yes clear favourite by a mile
      Bookies close book on a Yes win
      That would make the pollsters shake in their boots
      Place your bets Ladies and Gentlemen

      Like

  5. Forget the BookiesSome people have only ever bet on political matters. Lose out every time because of Pollsters predictions in tight margins. Instead of following the bookies odd and evens. There are more unionists, UK wide, placing bets, as a % of the population. Skewing the odds on numbers of political bets.

    The Bookies always are more likely to win in tight margins, They fo not result as predicted. The Pollsters deliberately get it wrong. To make monies on the stock exchange by thwarting the results, Making corrupt pollsters, politicians and their cronies millionaires at everyone else’s expense. Wasting £Billions of public funding which could be better spent.

    Austerity and Brexit etc. Major corruption. No more bets. Just deceiving the electorate for political corruption. Breaking the Laws they make with impunity. Reneging on promises and breaking Purdah. Gerrymandering but no one goes to jail. The ultimate sentence. They just get away with it. Until they are elected out. Ousted for political, economic, social and foreign incompetence and failure.

    Like

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