The death of truth: how we gave up on facts and ended up with the Herald


That is an outright lie and it’s an outright lie aimed at deceiving the public on behalf of one party as it struggles in an election campaign.

For the more than the umpteenth time, the report referred to found no meaningful link between hospital discharges into care homes and outbreak in those homes. Five earlier reports across the UK also found no such evidence. All of the reports found a strong link between the size of a care home and outbreaks. The larger ones, corporate-owned, high occupancy and with staffing problems plugged by itinerant agency staff travelling between sites, were more likely to have outbreaks and more death. With only 2.6% of the care homes, HC-One had 16% of the deaths!

The headline above is a disgraceful misrepresentation of the facts – fake news.

This is important from BBC Head of Statistics, Robert Cuffe:

That margin of error says that the risk could have been raised by as much as 50% instead of 20% . That rules out a doubling or a tripling in the rate of outbreaks, but can’t rule out a small increase. And that margin of error also says that care homes that received discharges might actually have seen slightly lower rates of outbreaks when you take other factors into account. Hence not proven, known in the statistical jargon as “no significant evidence”. With a narrower margin of error, we might rule out statistically the idea that risk was lower in care homes that received discharges, but we don’t have enough evidence to allow such a conclusion.

A good care home manager, knowing they have a possibly infected arrival, ups the stakes on isolation and hygiene and that home has then fewer deaths than another where agency staff come and go?

21 thoughts on “The death of truth: how we gave up on facts and ended up with the Herald

  1. Last night ABC Scotland wheeled out their own “BBC UK head of statistics” who said that although the stats did not prove anything it doesn’t mean it wasn’t true. This guy is a qualified statistician.

    Liked by 4 people

  2. The truth is not on their bucket list as we all know. They will lie up until 10pm on May 6th, and give Sarwar a platform to keep the lies alive. It’s sickening and on par with Labour branch office lies to pensioners during the independence referendum, telling them they’d ‘lose their pensions if the result was a yes’. Like the phone scammers, preying on the less informed, and the vulnerable, it’s really unethical, to put it lightly.
    The BritNat rags don’t have ethics at their core, just lies and sleeze, they know it works on some though, so they keep scamming. Thanks for calling out these lowlifes John.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. Labour killed and maimed millions of people. Austerity killed more people. 120,000 more premature deaths. The lockdown should have been done a month before. The airport quarantined. Westminster mismanagement of the economy.

    ConDems NHS cuts £20Billion from 2015 to 2020. The pandemic management cut and disbanded for Brexit. Brexit ruining the economy, Labour supported all of Westminster cuts and poor decisions. Labour still lying again. The elderly could have died in hospital. More people pro rata died in the rest of the UK, Nearly twice as many.

    Labour are a busted flush. Get rid of Labour take the fight to the Tories. Independence. Why anyone who supports Independence could vote Labour is a mystery.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. This hindsight by Politicians and the media is amazing.

    I remember the fear of hospitals being overwhelmed and the concerns for those recovering in hospital who were in the high risk group.
    I am no fan of Nicola. However given the incredible demands and pressure at the time she made the right decision.

    I do not understand why Sturgeon and Freeman feel the need to accept “blame” constantly for hard choices made in the heat of battle. I suspect many Generals/ Police Commanders/ Fire Chiefs / etc often look back and say “if only”

    I will be critical of Nicola Sturgeon for the removal of internal party democracy or the pursuit of GRA without discussion but I will not join the Covid hindsight club.

    Those in the selective memory club should consider how many fewer deaths would have taken place if Governments across the World had acted when the Pandemic was in it’s infancy. The Westminster Government gets little focus regarding that.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. It appears that you may have a ‘selective memory’ when it comes to the reform of the GRA (2004). There have been two public consultations on draft proposals for reform of the process by which legal certification can be obtained. Responses to the second consultation have yet to be analysed because the issue was raised in April 2020 and remains so.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Aye right – public consultations.
        You also believe internal democracy was never stopped. That a third of the NEC being non elected is OK and that the SNP membership is still 120k.


    2. Reply to thesnpleftme APRIL 22, 2021 AT 12:18 PM

      My reply at 8.35am was specifically about the GRA 2004.

      In your reply at 12.18pm you said “”You also believe internal democracy was never stopped. “” You have zero evidence for that statement. Furthermore I did not say anything at all on that particular subject. The reason for that silence is quite simple. I have never ever been a member of any political party therefore I have no knowledge of their internal workings or alleged machinations. I do know, however, that it is difficult to hold a consultation without a degree of debate whether that takes place within an organisation in order to frame their response or between individuals as they determine their personal position.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. A Failing Party ( UK Labour ) being supported by a Failing Newspaper ( Herald ) backed up by a Failing National Broadcaster (BBC ) using stats which none of the former thought to query at the time but with hindsight believe that they WOULD have used this SNPBAAAAD story at the time if only they and the Unionists now complaining hadn’t thought it the right thing to do too !

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Being able to accurately establish causation, plays a vital role in the production of justice. So perhaps disabling Scots law’s capacity to reflect the biological world, isn’t such a good idea?

    Causality and Causation in Law

    “Of all truths relating to phenomena, the most valuable to us are those which
    relate to the order of their succession. On a knowledge of these is founded
    every reasonable anticipation of future facts, and whatever power we have
    of influencing these facts to our advantage.” – John Stuart Mill, A System of Logic


  7. Being able to accurately establish causation, smells like scientific method. Which when combined with legal reason, enabled humanity to escape the arbitrary authoritarianism of tyrannical rule. So I would rather we didn’t have to return to the justice of dominant ideologies and unaccountable rulers.

    Causation in Legal and Moral Reasoning,%20Lagnado,%20Gerstenberg,%202017.pdf


  8. If the law wishes to support impartiality and justice, it will need to remember the law’s future needs to be cognitive rather than ideological. So those charged with shaping the law, will need to ensure their laws avoid supporting material fantasies. As law that is grounded in delusion, inevitably evolves to become the pathologised in-group diktat of cultural oppression (see British constitutionalism).

    Causation and Conditionals in the Cognitive Science of Human Reasoning


  9. Transparency in government is essential to effective government and open democracy, so here’s a look at transparency in relation to the legal jurisdiction of the EU. Probably only for fans of nostalgia. 😦

    The Six Faces of Transparency

    “Perhaps there is no connection between public access to information and transparency as a principle of procurement law. However, it is suggested that the different emanations of the principle of transparency are in fact part of one and the same phenomenon.7 And indeed, all transparency obligations seem to have a common core. They are all concerned with the availability, accessibility, and comprehensibility of information.8

    A transparent government is one that provides people with the information they need to ascertain and understand the state of the world and to predict how their actions will affect that world, and that does not unnecessarily complicate that world.9”


  10. Just had a scan on the BBC Scotland Politics website before bed and had to laugh.

    First off the Sarwar headline “Anas Sarwar says Scotland must move on from ‘old politics’ “, but have to presume he’s not referring to the lying devious version he and HMS Sarah Smith have long practiced even as late as yesterday….

    The second was the complete absence of anything SNP – In order Anass, Anotherass, Yetannotherass, An ever bigger ass DRoss, Prof Leitch on digital vaccine cerificates (made in England), and a “Can Unionists block another referendum” pastiche….

    BBC balance in purdah 🤣

    Liked by 1 person

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