Not for the first time, I’ve had to sort out a misleading MSM report.
The original Scotsman headline was:
Nicola Sturgeon to fall short of majority as Alex Salmond’s Alba Party deprives SNP of key list seats, poll shows
Here’s the gist from Colin:
The poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, shows the SNP on 64 MSPs, one short of a majority, and Alba Party returning zero MSPs with three per cent of the list vote. However, the election on May 6 would return a pro-independence majority of 74 MSPs with 10 Scottish Green MSPs also predicted to be elected.
One poll, is of course, just one poll so what’s the trend?
Support for everyone is pretty much unchanging since the beginning of March. An overall majority for the SNP is probable but an overall pro-Indy majority looks a cert. Media coverage seems largely ineffective in changing voting intentions.
Media commentators have made much of Sarwar’s strong performances and Ross doing badly but the polls say otherwise. Support for Labour is down on Savanta’s March poll and Conservative support is holding up, in 2nd place.