UPDATE: Poll predicts ‘boomeranging’ pro-indy majority of 19 as Tories and Labour collapse!

UPDATE: The BMG pollster’s expert and the Herald read the results of their poll to mean a majority of only 1 for the SNP but the thinking man’s James Kelly, James Kelly has corrected all of us. It’s an overall majority of 3 for the SNP and 19 for the pro-indy parties. See the explanation at his excellent site:

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/support-for-independence-boomerangs.html

An extract from the Herald/BMG poll today:

On what matters most, legislating for the 2nd Independence referendum, a lead of 9, is pretty much unbeatable.

On any Tory-led scalp-hunting, it is also surely safe.

As for that last line, what sort of idiot thinks that?

The last two polls have a Yes lead of 4 in the midst of saturation media coverage implying the FM has lied. The No lead, other than the dodgy Scotsman one never exceeded 2% after undecideds were removed.

The dip could have been due to a vaccine boost, sampling or the combination of all three, plus other factors I haven’t thought of.

Footnote: Does this make a case for second vote Green?

15 thoughts on “UPDATE: Poll predicts ‘boomeranging’ pro-indy majority of 19 as Tories and Labour collapse!

    1. Careful what you assume. Is it not the case that SNP lost a number of Westminster seats in the North East since 2016. You seem to be assuming that that will not be repeated in May.

      Like

      1. Boab
        Ah but as Bob Dylan sung
        The times are a changing
        And also as of today
        They have now changed
        Thereby moving from the present tense
        To The Past tense in a flash
        But ask the Unionists to repent
        But they know naught of what is meant

        Like

  1. From James Kelly, pro-indy majority is 19 seats (never trust the Herald) –

    New polling in the Herald, but the Herald can’t even do simple sums –

    “SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS

    Pro-independence parties: 74 seats
    Anti-independence parties: 55 seats

    PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 19 SEATS

    The Herald article quotes a BMG spokesman as saying that 66 seats would give the SNP “the slimmest majority” of just one seat. As you can see above, that’s inaccurate – 66 seats is a majority of three. I presume he was thinking that, because the target for a majority is 65 seats, 66 must be a majority of one, but that’s not how it works.”

    Also, second consecutive poll with Yes lead –

    “Should Scotland be an independent country? (BMG/Herald)

    Yes 52%
    No 48%”

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/support-for-independence-boomerangs.html

    Liked by 3 people

  2. One of the main gripes of the Brit Nats is that Green seats come from the List rather than the constituency.
    I trust therefore, that DRossie and Starwars wont accept a seat at Holyrood unless they actually WIN a seat directly.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. John
    Re.your foot note on 2nd vote for green?
    Well my thoughts on such is Yes, why
    1 Not only a 2nd vote but a strategic alliance
    Clearly stating loud and proud in both SNP & The Green manifestos, that it is for the people of Scotland to decide their political,economic & societal future NOT Westminster
    And in the event of a clear majority then a sect.30 will be forcibly requested on Day one
    2.The Greens should be offered at least 3 Snr.
    Posts in the new Government and one of them Environmental
    3.If such alliance formed then mutual agreement reached on what key environmental policies will be enacted
    Why is this Important
    1 Boris will use any minority SNP government
    As to completely refuse Indy Ref.2 along with behind the scenes rigging of any resultant Supreme court rulings
    2. Such will turn the Holyrood election in May
    Into a YES/ NO straight contest
    3.Given Cops in Glasgow November, Boris as previously and clearly stated that He does not
    To see The SNP anywhere near the conference, thereby trapping him to refusing
    The Greens access also ,I can see how the International community would react to that bombastic bluster
    4.Internationally we would many friends
    Note many Nations have in Government where PR is the type of voting and Greens form part of such Governments
    Finally we all know the dirty tricks The Union
    Side deploy, time to play them at their own game along with the Green Party being in Government having to take into full consideration of the economic consequences
    That would arise from some of their more outlandish immediate demands for action
    And have to operate in the Real World but with applied vigour and determination
    Overall all it is a Win/Win scenario
    Time for the SNP to grow up and get real

    Like

    1. I would have no problem with an SNP/Green coalition.
      It would actually help the Greens to “grow up and get real”, but green politics is going to be important for us all.
      I would also hope Andy Wightman could be coaxed into government.
      The more “good guys” the better.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Gavinochiltree
        I used to hold Andy Wightman in very high regards
        But he has burnt his bridges now with his vote on the Parliamentary committee
        Not only that but he chose to side with our
        Thouroughly evil foes
        This clearly demonstrates extremely poor
        judgement even before NS off the hook now
        With findings today of the Independent enquiry
        No one of sound mind and impartiality could possibly voted with Tory,Lib. Or Lab on this

        Fly with the crows then thou shall be shot with them
        Furthermore he was a willing voter in a Kangaroo court
        End Off

        Like

  4. I am more and more becoming inclined to agree with suggestion of 2nd vote Green, apart from South of Scotland and other region, I think North East?, where Tories or LibDems still take constituency seats 💺

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Please do not deploy “boomerang” or “recovery”, it plays directly to the agenda the spin merchants are trying to push, that Indy support is “volatile” rather than inexorably rising beyond a marginal majority.

    The Tories would not be bricking it were their own polling not confirming how deep in doo-doo they are in Scotland, they need a miracle and are prepared to pay for it, the media will be in avalanche mode shortly…

    Liked by 2 people

  6. I have to say that Patrick Harvey grew significantly in my opinion after his clear and robust interview on BBC News following the release of the Hamilton Report.

    Like

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