Thank Goodness!

The death rate lags behind the infection rate by some time.

From a horrible peak of 93 deaths on the 9th January and a 7 day average of 60 on the 27th, to a 7 day average of 6 today, it’s been a long tough wait and, I appreciate, not yet over.

The level of infection started to fall, but from a great height of 2 649 at the end of January, to 655 today.

We won’t know if the stupidity in George Square has killed, until deaths increase again, if they do. Hopefully the vaccines have saved us this time.

Today, Professor Leitch seemed relaxed because the national level has flattened again but there are communities with dangerously high levels in parts of Glasgow and nearby regions.

8 thoughts on “Thank Goodness!

  1. Although the positivity rate is below 5% the number of cases reach day seems stubbornly high when you consider that the prevalent strain of the virus, the Kent variant, is more highly transmissible.

    That plus the fact that some areas seem to have high-ish levels that seem to be high-ish without an obvious easily solvable reason. For example, Stirling where the common denominator linking the affected areas seems to be deprivation.

    These together suggest that the easing of lockdown has to be cautious and closely monitored because a highly transmissible virus present in pockets of infection means the whole situation can turn on a sixpence especially when people start to circulate more widely.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I see that the R rate has edged up. I know that there are several definitions, but, in both NI and Wales as infections and deaths dropped and the percentage of tests giving positives fell, the R number edged up.

      I have some vague theories uti wonder if anyone can point to an explanation?


    2. I believe it’s possible that the stubbornly high number of infections but with a relatively low rate of positive cases may be due to a change in the test and trace philosophy now being employed in Scotland.

      Since the start of test and trace any positive case had their contacts traced and they were asked to self-isolate and there it ended.

      In recent weeks there has been a new strategy and any contacts of a positive case are now themselves tested and their contacts also traced.

      This most likely results in more positive cases being identified among those tested as the testing is more targeted on the contacts of an infected person and who are therefore more likely to have contracted the virus themselves than the general population.

      That’s my theory anyway and I’ve no idea how right or wrong it may be.


      1. Alex Clark
        You bang on
        The efficient test track and isolate system
        Has been recalibrate to take consideration of the now 90% prelevance and domination of
        Boris the Terrible creating the conditions for the English Kent variation to arise,develop,establish and dominate
        Which is now sweeping through Europe
        England is now firmly established as a rogue and pariah state
        Rapidly becoming World class in achieving such


  2. But the BBC is fair bursting with the “fact” that infections in Scotland are rising, whereas they are falling elsewhere in the UK.

    This of course is from the infamous ONS “random” survey, which looks at a suspiciously small sample in Scotland.


    1. George S Gordon
      What you speak of are in main due the effects of the highly infectious and more dangerous
      English Kent variant and the time lag of roughly 3- 4 week in it getting a firm foothold
      In Scotland
      For further info in Norway where it was 1 st identified much later
      They now have considerably more new cases,Hospital , ICU admissions per day than Scotland ( deaths will soon follow)
      This speaks volumes as to the potency of the English strain that Boris the Terrible has given to the world
      Also of note it would appear that the English mutant is far more contagious than the
      Sth.African and The Brazilian ones
      Hip Hip.Hip.Hooray
      Boris is indeed World beating
      In Deaths/ million
      And by allowing the virus to rip all increasing
      Its chances to produce this nasty mutation
      Let none say this was pure chance
      Nature never creates chance it occurs and arises by design and it is up to each species
      To capitalise upon such occurrences as They present
      Boris created the conditions for such to arise
      And the virus is only taking its chance and well and truly so


  3. It is indeed more than unfortunate that Westminster considers itself impervious to outside law that challenges Parliamentary sovereignty, as that means the Tories will probably never be held to account for their shocking negligence with regards the initial response to the pandemic. Health law is a powerful source of rights protection, as is environmental law, but the Tories are particularly hostile towards public health ethics and environmental justice. So it’s doubly imperative that Scots law is not disabled in its capacity to reflect biological reality.

    Human Rights and Bioethics: Formulating a Universal Right to
    Health, Health Care, or Health Protection?


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