What could have caused infection levels to climb especially in Glasgow and surrounding areas?

Glasgow attractions (geograph 2354506) (cropped).jpg

After falling to the 7th of March, then levelling until the 9th, the number of new Covid cases in Scotland has begun to climb for the first time since the end of December 2020. From 466 new cases on the 9th March, we now have a sequence of 691, 591 and today, 682.

It’s maybe a bit early to worry but it is worthy of attention.

The average time before symptoms show is 4 to 5 days.

Today, 392 of the 682 were in Greater Glasgow and Clyde and in Lanarkshire.

Since the 7th March, the trend has been flat or falling in all parts of Scotland other than on the 9th, 10th and 11th especially in Greater Glasgow and in areas surrounding it.

Scotland has had 2 249 new cases in just those 4 days. Greater Glasgow and Clyde had 707. Lanarkshire had 384, Lothian had 298, Forth Valley had 215, Fife had 139, Grampian had 113 and Tayside had 108.

Could some event in Glasgow but attracting fans more widely have been the ‘ground zero’ for this surge?

Infection levels seem quite high in Kilwinning, North Ayrshire and the Ibrox East area of Glasgow but not the Parkhead East area. Could that be a clue?

Sources:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

19 thoughts on “What could have caused infection levels to climb especially in Glasgow and surrounding areas?

  1. John, I take your point and in general terms there is a very good chance you are right. It’s unlikely most those you are hinting at, live all that far away from the west of Scotland (though, you never know). However, I think when you cite the east end you are perhaps a wee bit off, and would recommend this https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/sport/football/4834270/paul-caddis-artur-boruc-celtic-rangers/
    I recall stories of folk in that part of Glasgow opening their windows as Celtic fans made their way to the railway station and throwing things down at them – and it wasnt jeely pieces!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. The key to this is
    A.The actual % number of tests that proved positive for each area
    B.Was testing targeting specific areas/ post codes
    Both the above factors are of prime importance in establishing unusual upward movements in new cases
    If found to be considerable ,then Genome tracking should be implemented in a concentrated manner
    But such requires considerable time to establish the facts

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  3. This was actually one of the questions put to Jason Leitch on today’s Coronavirus Briefing. He basically said that he didn’t think most football fans lived near their team’s stadium and it was more likely to be income inequality. (If so, presumably it’ll all be Nicola’s fault, as usual!)

    Worth keeping an eye on, though…

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Without doubt it will have been the rangers celebrations but its past we cant change it .
    We will remember it though for when we put restrictions on the behaviour of these people once Scotland is independent and they dont have the idiotic support they get at present from BBC , daily record etc

    Liked by 1 person

  5. It could be a clue, as social deprivation is the main driver of poor health and health inequalities, though I don’t see that as explaining this spike in cases.

    Health Inequality – determinants and policies
    journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1403494812457734

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  6. My training to join the Royal Town Planning Institute focused heavily on ensuring folk gain access to due process in law, and the potential to access their right to health. So even though that was almost thirty years ago, I think a critical realist, intersectional, approach to public health research is still relevant today. As it enables a realistic assessment of risk, which focuses “on the interplay between power, structure, experience, and identity”.

    Intersectional approaches in health-risk research: a critical review
    https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:772989/FULLTEXT01(dot)pdf

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  7. Following on from stewartb’s contribution to the previous thread, here’s a look at how human rights and health relate to each other. So obviously denying women are adult human females, is more than a tad dangerous and oppressive to women. As is denying Scotland is equal to England in a non-binding political contract, though that won’t only compromise the human rights of women.

    Developing a critical realist informed framework to explain how the human rights and social determinants of health relationship works
    https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7760-7

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  8. While the trend in infections has risen in the past few days, the trend for deaths continues to fall and the R number range is the lowest it has been for about a year. The percentage of positive tests remains below 5%. Those infected are mainly in the under 45 age range, with infection rates for those age groups older than that markedly lower, undoubtedly due to the almost complete vaccination of these age groups. Glasgow and the surrounding areas account for the bulk of infections and these areas are those of the highest levels of poverty and population density.

    I think it is probably too early, given the incubation time, to ascribe the rise to the conduct of some Rangers supporters.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. Alex
        Simple answer as to rise/plateau in infections in poorer areas
        No doubt all due to the Highly infectious Kent
        Variant
        If the 1st wave did not get you then this Kent
        Most certainly will and that is why
        Because poorer people living in more crowded poorer accommodation
        Believe they were invincible after 1st wave
        Dodged them, so they carried on as usual and even more daringly

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  9. Rangers fans are socially deprived? Obsessed about a sporting team. Rather than their or others health. ‘Take one for the team’. Or kill off a supporter. Not very friendly or sporting. More room at the Stadium. A lockdown.

    Cannae push yer granny off a bus. She is yer mammy’s mother. She has had the vaccine.

    Andy Murray has had another child. Lockdown must be boring. Increasing support of the sport. 4 under fives? A right handful. Catching up with Federer. 2 sets of twins. 2 girls and two boys. Mixed doubles.

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  10. I noticed the rise in infections in Scotland. Don’t know about other areas, but here in our part of Edinburgh, some air b and b’s are doing a roaring trade. Seems the police are not bothered no one is checking up even though I reported it.
    With borders mostly wide open and spring almost upon us, then summer ahead,
    I fear Scotland will not be able to reduce numbers as required, there could even be a rise due to holiday makers. People who would normally fly off abroad, will decide to holiday in Scotland. The spectacular countryside of Scotland and relatively reasonable costs will be like nectar. Seeing ads for holiday places on YouTube and via wilderness Scotland, holiday lets are selling like hotcakes. Once again, Scotland is at the mercy of what their neighbours decide, even if it means people die. The so called union is killing people in Scotland really, the virus travels well.
    Just out of interest anyone know if the English staffers on the nuke subs etc who come and go across the border at will, have to quarantine.

    Liked by 3 people

  11. Do some football fans who appreciate the UK see it as their duty to catch and spread The Covid, after all it’s just like getting the Flu.

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