That floating feeling as Survation go low again

Well, wrong and wrong again?

First the pollster, Survation always go low. When Ipsos MORI, Savanta and Panelbase were getting over 50% against 40 to 43% for No, they always had Yes 44% to 47% and the lead was 2% to 7% at best. Their sampling will be different, skewing their results toward NO.

Second that sinking feeling, remember this?

Support for independence had been climbing steadily since mid-2017 before climbing more steeply since the beginning of 2020.

The reasons are uncertain and no doubt complex beyond the wit of the Express but initially demographic change with young Yes supporters arriving on the scene and older No supporters leaving the scene. There is now a strong majority for Yes in the under-65s.

The steeper climb will no doubt have been partly due to the same factor but strengthened by disaffection with Boris and Brexit and then the Scottish Government’s better handling of the pandemic. Such a surge was unlikely to be maintained.

In 2021, support has consolidated at around a 4% lead producing that flattening in the graph but it remains only one poll. If the next three say the same, then it’s a trend that might reveal itself in a vote but until then, we don’t know.

We might just be floating, gather energy before swimming on as likely as we are to sink.

As for ‘Salmond affair hurts Nats‘, you know that’s rubbish. Ipsos MORI told us two days ago, from their survey of 1031, only 5, less than half of 1% thought the Alex Salmond enquiry was an issue which will be very important to them in helping them to decide which party to vote for.

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7 thoughts on “That floating feeling as Survation go low again

  1. The London based establishment accuse us of “Neverendums” until we get the answer we want.
    This is exactly what they accuse us of.
    Keep asking the question until you get a result you like.
    As soon as a poll shows No in the lead,it will be back to “the Scottish people don’t want a referendum” narrative.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. These headlines merely represent
    A shout out to the deserters of NO
    And the doubters having decided YES
    What is the Shout
    ACHTUNG.we shoot to kill
    But their bullets are their words which when fired are found to be blanks

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  3. From the eejits who have always told us a single poll means nothing!

    As James Kelly says, “The reality is that the sequence of Yes-majority polls was always going to be broken at some point – unless there was a further swing to Yes. Why? Because previous polls by several firms had put Yes on either 51% or 52%, which made it statistically inevitable, due to the margin of error, that an individual poll would eventually produce a figure of 49% or 50% even if public opinion remained static.” https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/02/heartbreak-for-sunday-mail-as-they.html

    It’s also interesting that even James’s Indy-supporting Mum was (temporarily) swayed by the media lie that “Alex Salmond said Scotland is not ready for independence”. And, of course, another lie is that “Alex Salmond has not forgiven Nicola Sturgeon”. This is a completely inaccurate interpretation of his response to a question sneaked in near the end by Jackie Baillie, which should have been ruled out of order – but he didn’t provide the answer she was after.

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  4. Might also be interesting to note Survation’s last two poll results for Yes, before today’s
    45% in January this year
    44% in December last year
    So put the present number – 43% – in with this, and recognising a stat error of +/- 3% and it’s pretty much “no change”, which with the Alex and Nicola Show in full view is pretty remarkable.
    One other thought, I mentioned in my article you kindly published this morning that McWhirter thought Sturgeon wouldnt go for a referendum because we might lose. How would Johnson feel about a lead of 1%?

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    1. One more thought, the No vote hasnt shifted much either – though it is consistent – on the dates above it was 43%, 42% and 44% today. Dont knows too havent changed that much – 14%, 12% and 13%. In fact their lead on these three polls has never been more than 2% for Yes.
      Going back a bit further though, the lead they showed was much more consistent with other polling companies’ results 6-7% in September/ October. Their more recent results are though out of line with others. This might be that they are sensing a drift back to No that others arent picking up, OR they have adjusted their polling methods. In fact Survation have little experience of measuring this. Before September last year, their previous Yes/No poll was in September 2019 – and it was much worse for Yes than other pollsters at the same time.

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  5. The best time to have an IndyRef is when it can be won. Legislation is already being out in place. A massive support at Holyrood election in May will set the pace.

    Vote SNP/SNP. Vote for Independence. Get one other to vote as well. Think positive and confident of others. Give as much support as possible.

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  6. It’ll be interesting to see polling after the May elections, as they use said elections as a weighting for polling.

    Currently, they use the 2014 Indyref, the 2019 Westminster GE, and the 2016 Hoyrood election for weighting.

    So weightings that are 1, 5, and 7 years old. No idea as to the amount of weighting for each, but let’s break it down more simply.

    Weighting 1 (2016 election): A five year old poll of all the people.
    Weighting 2 (2014 Indyref): A seven year old poll on a single issue.
    Weighting 3 (2019 GE): A 15 month old poll of a different polity entirely.

    We all know that Scots vote differently in HR than in WM, and there was a huge difference in Indyref.

    I reckon I’ll wait and see how this election compares to the 2016 one before accepting any Indyref polls that ‘suddenly’ pull to Naw when the news has been wall to wall SNP bad.

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