Well, wrong and wrong again?
First the pollster, Survation always go low. When Ipsos MORI, Savanta and Panelbase were getting over 50% against 40 to 43% for No, they always had Yes 44% to 47% and the lead was 2% to 7% at best. Their sampling will be different, skewing their results toward NO.
Second that sinking feeling, remember this?
Support for independence had been climbing steadily since mid-2017 before climbing more steeply since the beginning of 2020.
The reasons are uncertain and no doubt complex beyond the wit of the Express but initially demographic change with young Yes supporters arriving on the scene and older No supporters leaving the scene. There is now a strong majority for Yes in the under-65s.
The steeper climb will no doubt have been partly due to the same factor but strengthened by disaffection with Boris and Brexit and then the Scottish Government’s better handling of the pandemic. Such a surge was unlikely to be maintained.
In 2021, support has consolidated at around a 4% lead producing that flattening in the graph but it remains only one poll. If the next three say the same, then it’s a trend that might reveal itself in a vote but until then, we don’t know.
We might just be floating, gather energy before swimming on as likely as we are to sink.
As for ‘Salmond affair hurts Nats‘, you know that’s rubbish. Ipsos MORI told us two days ago, from their survey of 1031, only 5, less than half of 1% thought the Alex Salmond enquiry was an issue which will be very important to them in helping them to decide which party to vote for.