England’s hidden deaths mean the UK passed 100 000 some time ago

NHS England takes control - The Lowdown

I’m sure you know by now, from listening to the First Minister tell us every Wednesday, that there are two counts for Covid mortality.

There are the cases where Covid is thought to have caused the death and there are those where Covid has not been shown to have caused the death but has been mentioned on the death certificate and may have been a contributory factor.

When you add the second set to the first, you get a bigger total, you’d think. Scotland has had 5 888 confirmed deaths but 7 445 overall, when you add those where Covid has only been mentioned on the death certificate.

The same rule applied to Wales and Northern Ireland, as you can see in the two tables from the UK Government, below, but not to England.

No, when you add the second set, where Covid has only been mentioned on the death certificate to the confirmed cases, the total actually goes down!



What on Earth is going on here? It certainly helps England keep its death rate per 100K down.

32 thoughts on “England’s hidden deaths mean the UK passed 100 000 some time ago

    1. When you look at the data for England broken down by ‘Region’, it can be seen that for some regions, as expected, the figure for deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate is greater than the number of those who had a positive test for Covid in the past 28 days. However, some regions show a marked drop. The data for England as a whole is the aggregation of all of the regions. The net result is a reduction in the number of deaths recorded.

      Places like London, show the expected increase, broadly in line with the trends seen in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

      It seems that the people responsible for compiling aggregate these data should be questioning the data from a number of regions.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I looked at the detailed data for the UK both at the different national levels and at the English regional levels.

        For Scotland the ‘Covid mentioned’ data exceeds the ‘test’ data by 27%, for Wales it is 26% and for NI it is 19%. The overall figure for England is a DECREASE of 2%. When the data for the English regions are analysed, these vary from a DECREASE of 9% for the East of England to and increase of 9% for Yorkshire and Humberside. 4 regions show a DECREASE and 5 show an increase. (Note I gave the estimate for London wrongly above – it is 2% increase.)

        The most charitable explanation is that different methods are being used in different parts of England to collate data.

        Why has no ‘journalist’ looked at this?

        Liked by 2 people

  1. John
    You ask what on earth is going on here
    Tis called
    Cooking the Books
    False accounting
    A process of denial
    Nefarious activity
    Speaking with forked tongue
    Sweep the dirt under the carpet
    And as Tommy Cooper would put it
    Not like this but like that
    For 1000 yrs England has behaved so
    Tis in their DNA

    Liked by 5 people

  2. I dont think there can be much doubt that the London Gov is very worried about people knowing how many people have died from Covid. There are people who are trying to find the real figures- and I imagine historians 50 years from now will be the first allowed to know the whole story. It is all about propaganda just now trying to make us all feel good about being the country that grabbed the first batch and the most vaccines – before anyone else. Norway is giving away vaccines to poorer countries- that’s the difference. Until the world is vaccinated- nobody is safe.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. This is normally where an investigative journalist springs into action and writes a World class newspaper article…unfortunately this is the UK.

    Liked by 7 people

  4. England’s Westminster has been dogged by mishaps , delays , misinformation , cronyism and more but their Office National Stats has been primed and working like a coiled spring ready to spring into action whenever a crisis needs covered up .
    The absence of certain covid statistics for England is no accident
    It’s part of a planned propaganda war against Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales
    It was prepared long before it was available to the public

    Liked by 3 people

    1. “It’s part of a planned propaganda war against Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales”
      The people of England are as much victims of this propaganda war over Covid stats as the rest, even if there is higher susceptibility to it.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Strong police presence reported near the Valneva vaccine factory, Livingston.
        Top French company helping the fight against covid.


  5. There is also a huge time lag in England’s death reporting figures. So some of the deaths “reported yesterday” will have actually occurred in December, or occasionally longer!

    This could mean that the death rate has levelled off, or declined, or massively spiked. We have know way of easily knowing.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. The discrepancy here between Scotland/Wales (27%) increase, there is no reason why England should be lower apart from doctors opinion, is over 25,000. Is their backlog really that bad?

      Liked by 1 person

  6. O/T I know but Sky News just said that Nicola said “Don’t come” to Scotland regarding L.B.Js visit today. A deliberate lie. She said that everybody is welcome to visit Scotland. What she questioned, quite correctly, was whetther his journey was “essential”.

    Liked by 3 people

  7. Maybe they have missed a “1” on that second set of figures and have already gone past a 150000 milestone too shocking to mention?


  8. “To take just one snapshot, analysis of mortality data by the Financial Times in September 2020 shows that the excess death rate in the UK is +37 per cent in 2020 compared with the average death rate over 2015–19. This compares with excess death rates of +15 per cent in France, +6 per cent in Germany, +38 per cent in Italy, +33 per cent in Spain and +24 per cent in the United States.4 These excess deaths data, and associated averages over recent periods, are shown in Figure 1….

    …Comparative GDP data released by the OECD indicate that UK economic performance fared particularly poorly during the pandemic, with the sharpest decline in both real quarterly (–19.8 per cent) and projected annual (–11.2 per cent) growth among the G7 nations…

    …Table 1 shows the declines in all markers of subjective well‐being in the second quarter (Q2) of 2020 – the first time since the Office for National Statistics (ONS) began collecting data in 2011 that they all worsened significantly on the year before. The only decline on this scale in recent data is the collapse in well‐being in Greece in the wake of the 2008 crisis, following the crippling choices that country was forced to make after its near‐bankruptcy.


  9. Sorry for going OT a bit, but I need to stress the significance of “Health Disparities at the Intersection of Gender and Race: Beyond Intersectionality Theory in Epidemiologic Research”. Which points to both the significance of biology, and the cultural roots of learned helplessness (see Scotland’s cultural cringe). So it is precisely the sort of knowledge the SNP should be acting on, so as to defend Scotland from reactionary and expansive English nationalism. Instead of trying to make a respect for biology a crime in Scotland.


  10. Sorry for going slightly OT again, but realistic epidemiology is vital to good public health management. So folk could do a lot worse than checking out “A look at Covid-19 through a biopsychosocial lens”. Which is a perspective the SNP appear determined to deny Scotland.

    “The biopsychosocial model views disease and illness from a broader perspective than simply looking at the biology of the disease itself. It teaches us that when we see patients we are assessing and treating whole people, not just body parts. The impact of a disease has profound effects that reach all aspects of that individual, not just physically but psychologically and socially as well.

    Disease does not only affect that person and the different aspects of their own life, but the lives of those immediately around them as well. It also permeates through humanity as a whole so that, just as with individual trees in a forest, it is perhaps helpful for us to view the 8 billion humans on this planet as one large super-organism.”


  11. If you want to support good public health in Scotland, you need to do all you can to prevent the SNP from disabling Scots law with the introduction of anti-foundational ideology (see genderwoowoo). So folks could do a lot worse than checking out “From risk to resilience: An equity approach to COVID-19”. Which comes from the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada.

    “….While the COVID-19 pandemic affects us all, the health impacts have been worse for seniors, essential workers, racialized populations, people living with disabilities and women. We need to improve the health, social and economic conditions for these populations to achieve health equity and to protect us all from the threat of COVID-19 and future pandemics.”


  12. O/T – on BBC coverage of the Johnson visit to Scotland.

    I noted on the BBC News website today this headline: ‘Boris Johnson says independence debate ‘irrelevant’ to most Scots’. And beneath this the PM is quoted: “… referendum is completely irrelevant now to the concerns of most people”.

    The author of the BBC article seems to be trying to help the PM make this ‘irrelevance’ case because he/she decides to inserts this additional bit of text and to do so uncritically. The article adds: ” .. polls have also suggested that the independence question is currently a lower priority for many people than other issues such as the pandemic, health and education.”

    The framing where is clear. The ‘line’ being pushed by the PM with BBC ‘reinforcement’ is that we in Scotland don’t have independence as a top priority, as polling shows. And therefore the SG should abandon the very idea of holding a referendum. Well what follows should make for ‘educational’ reading for any ‘impartial’ BBC political journalist..

    YouGov, in a late 2015 poll of UK public opinion, asked this question: “Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three.”

    The top three issues amongst all respondents were: Immigration & Asylum (63%); Health (39%) and the economy (33%). Respondents had the option of choosing ‘Europe’: it came fifth in the list of priorities, chosen by just 27%. Even amongst Tory supporters, Europe was only third in their priorities, with just 37%. For Labour voters, ‘Europe’ was selected in top three issues by just 13%. For respondents in Scotland ‘Europe’ was ranked sixth in the list of priority issues.

    So Unionist politicians and their media supporters should note that despite the ‘Europe’ question being a much lower priority for many people across the UK in late 2015 than other issues, the Tories held an EU referendum six months later anyway, in June 2016!

    Click to access Times_Results_151218-Website.pdf


  13. Why is the total for Deaths within 28 days of positive test PLUS Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate, greater for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland but not for England?
    How is it possible that the second total is even smaller?

    Are cases where Covid-19 is on the death certificate only as a contributory factor not being counted in England?

    Did the UK really pass 100 000 deaths weeks ago?

    Please advise

    Professor John Robertson



    6:10 PM (50 minutes ago)
    to Covid19, me, coronavirus-tracker

    Hello John

    We will have to look into your first question but it is likely to be a combination of factors including the time period the data refers to, and variation in the methods for calculating 28 day deaths in the different countries.

    (I think you say you are adding both figures – they are different data sets but which overlap so they cannot be added but total 28 day deaths in England exceed death certificate deaths, but for other countries the reverse is true).

    In England the total 28 day deaths covers the period up to 27th January whereas deaths with COVID on the certificate is 12 days behind due the lag in registering deaths and causes of death.

    ONS break down death certificates in to two groups if covid occurs on the certificate – those where covid is the underlying cause of death; and those where it is mentioned on the certificate – it may be a contributory cause.

    We report the figure for any mention of covid on the death certificate.

    The UK figure for COVID deaths on the death certificate exceed 100,000 on the 7th January

    I have copied in colleagues to see if they can shed further light on the differences between countries


      1. Surely the easy way out of the apparent paradox is to say the person tested positve for covid but subsequently died within 28 days of something else hence no mention on death certificate. It seems they are trying to cover something up with their over complicated reply


  14. Excess deaths in Scotland and England are not greatly different, but they are different.

    For Scotland, there is an 11% increase on the five year average, with a total of 6324 people dying.

    For England, the % increase was 14,with a total of c 73,000 (courtesy of Nick Stripe and the BBC.


    1. Do not trust ONS excess death figures.
      They use a thing called age standardisation. As we know covid kills older people. Age standardisation of mortality diminishes the elderly component and masks the difference between England and Scotland. EuroMomo Z-score does not include this pockle.


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