Is Tory Cod-psychology effect on North-East Scotland wearing off?

In the mainstream, only the Guardian headline was honest and accurate.

BBC Scotland diverted the story from the facts to just an opinion with:

Scottish fishing industry ‘deeply aggrieved’ by Brexit deal and Gutted: Europe’s fishing deal with the UK

The Herald too avoided the facts with: Brexit Deal: Scottish Government claims key fishing stocks landed will reduce and Gove denies UK Govt has ‘betrayed’ fishing industry, insisting EU trade deal will leave it in stronger position

The truth will out, on social media if nowhere else, by the next Holyrood election and Scotland’s North-East Tories must surely feel the cold wind of public disapproval.

Distribution of seats per region in the Scottish Parliament

I’m not a psephologist or bean counter like Prof Curtice, but surely the five Tory seats in North East Scotland must be at risk. Add in the lost of seed-potato income and presumably jobs, plus the overall bad smell from the Brexit deal and the Scottish Tories must fall below Labour even though Labour itself does no better than stagnate.

Cod psychology? Bogus, third-rate, like anything Tories try to persuade you is in your interest.

14 thoughts on “Is Tory Cod-psychology effect on North-East Scotland wearing off?”

  1. Depends where their voters have been coming from. Their 5 seats mainly rely on the list (the constituency isn’t a fishing community).

    Will people return to Lib Dems?
    Will ultra yoons opt for a UKIP or similar fringe protest vote?

    Personally, I think NE Tories just look for an SNP grievance and fishing was a good local one. But fishing isn’t the mass industry it once was in terms of votes. So my hunch would be the find another grievance to harp on about.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. These are Westminster constituencies and Westminster does not have a list system. FPTP is used and, in the relatively recent past the SNPhave won those seats.

      For Holyrood, some NE constituencies are Tory held and, these could go to the SNP in May. However, as has happened in every Holyrood election since 1999, the Tories will hold seats under the list system.

      The Tory (and BBC Scotland) strategy for the elections will be that “the SNP wants us back into Europe and they will ‘sell’ fishing rights to be readmitted to the EU. Boris has made some gains and once we are a ‘free country’ (The UK, that is) operating without restriction in the world market,once the 5.5 year interim stage is over, we will reclaim ALL fishing rights in OUR SOVEREIGN WATERS!”Cue the playing of ‘Rule Britannia’ with a Union Flag background!

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  2. Dross and his raggle taggle band of troops have put their tin helmets on and dived behind the sand bags now and as quite a coorin timorous wee beastie
    Politicicians always tell us with regard major
    Deals & Policies etc that The Devil is in the detail
    Wrong Wrong Wrong
    The real Devil is as to how any interpret and attemp to use for their own respective ends
    The Tory silence on this shows who the Devil
    Truly is and by doing so the voters in their constituencies are savvy enough to realise this

    Liked by 1 person

  3. When will see the paid english newspapers CIRCULATED IN SCOTLAND
    COMING OUT AGAINST WHAT HAS BEEN DEVASTATION
    OF SCOTTISH FISHERIES

    BUT DO THEY CARE. NOT ONE JOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  4. A bit of a digression – I see that the BBC Business page has resurrected the “British Banger” panic which featured in the ‘Yes, Minister!’ comedy programme c1990. Apparently, under the agreement British sausages will not be allowed to be sold in the EU.

    When will BBC Scotland have a programme lauding the benefits of what they will label the “Boris Banger”. Will we have Lisa Summers outside the QEUH feeding pieces of these to pigeons, which, in the next shot, will be shown on their backs with their legs in the air? Will there be an interview with two fascists saying how ones health improved markedly after the pigeons roosting on the ledge next to his room were fed “Boris Bangers” and promptly died? Will there be an interview with a consultant – “I can’t stay for long, because I am off to a dinner party where John Beattie will be a guest.” – complaining that she has heard that one of the menial staff of the hospital lives two doors down from a man, she has been told, whose grandfather in Tranent keeps doos?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. By strange coincidence that episode of ‘Yes Minister’ was on BBC Four last week. Watched a few episodes last week. Really surprising how many of them are still current to what is happening today.

      Liked by 2 people

  5. Fishing and Tatties no answer from Bowie or Ross to my emails regarding these two items but I see Ross is going to scrap the planning rules as they stand.
    I also note that our “Friend” Alan Sutherland has taking a liking to Boris and thinks he has done a good job on Brexit.

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  6. “Brexit backlash from angry fishermen, is the last thing Scottish Tories need”.

    So writes Alan Cochrane, a Tory zealot who “normally” ( a good Tory huckster word) scribbles nonsense for the Torygraf.

    This time he has hit the nail on the head. Boris has sold the Scottish farmers and fishermen down the river, and no amount of deflection from BBC Hootsmon and all the rest of the colonial media, will alter that view of the mainstream Tory electorate.

    FPTP? Fill in your P45’s now, Bowie, Duguid et al.
    Holyrood? –even DRossy will be lucky to get in on the list backing this sell-out! And his MP gig is now screwed–just like the fish quotas.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. “I’m not a psephologist or bean counter like Prof Curtice, but surely the five Tory seats in North East Scotland must be at risk.”

    It’ll depend on the spread of the Regional List vote and the constituency seats. While the national share for the SNP was 42% in 2016, the NE’s share was 45%, but this was all offset against the SNP taking all the constituency seats, bar one.

    Of the remaining 55% of vote share, the Tories took 28% (over half of it), so got the lion’s share of the Regional List seats (4). If we look at a recent Scottish poll from Survation, we can guesstimate the NE’s possible result (small samples):
    https://www.survation.com/scotland-political-polling-december-2020/

    Constituency (sample 149):
    SNP 56%
    Con 31%
    Lab 9%
    Lib 3%

    Regional List (sample 144):
    SNP 45% (n/c)
    Con 22% (-6%)
    Lab 14% (+1%)
    Lib 7% (+1%)
    Grn 6% (+1%)

    Long story short, this poll suggests:
    SNP 10 (+1)
    Con 3 (-2)
    Lab 2 (n/c)
    Grn 1 (+1)
    Lib 1 (n/c)

    Or if you prefer, 11 Indy seats to 6, which is a change from 9 to 8.

    The SNP look set to take all the constituency seats, and the Greens might take a regional list seat, with Con losing two. Caveats…it’s just a poll, and samples aren’t huge, and there’s a decent whack of undecided votes ignored, and it’s six months away. 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Historically there is a Protestant fundamentalist dimension to the politics of the North-East. Independent evangelical churches are common in the fishing areas. These tend to be socially and economically conservative.

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  8. We only have “Unionist” now. The Labour, LibDems and Tories are all fishing(sorry) in the same shrinking pool. In most cases they simply prop each other up. Their vote is usually for “the most likely to stop the SNP”

    Labour voters appear blind to the fact that they are voting for LibDems and Tories but seldom having the favour returned. With one exception Ian Murray has a large Tory voter fan base. TFPTP serves Labour well there.

    The D’Hondt system at Holyrood will keep the the decaying corpse of Scottish Labour on display for a few more years. The Tories will be the eventual winners of what Unionist vote remains and will be in the best position to grab a chunk of seats after Independence.

    As for the fishermen of the NE…the 5 Families who would sell their granny for an increased profit..forget about them..they are not natural Tory voters but simply grubby, greedy people who the Tories are Masters at manipulating.

    The military have a good strategy that should be embraced – “don’t waste energy on isolated points. Move on and surround it”

    Stay positive…a 60% poll for Independence will be here soon!

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Julia Gibb
      With regards military strategy i draw your attention to the Writings of the Chinese warrior who took on and defeated the other 5 states and unified China as one nation as you see today
      He clearly stated that there are 4 cardinal
      Rule to conflict and no matter how strong or weak you are the winner WILL. be the one who rigidly follows the rules
      The loser the one who fails to understand or implement WILL lose
      So here are the four golden rules to be ruthlessly applied against any foe
      1.Know thy Foe right down to the tiniest detail
      2. Only ever tackle them at a place entirely of your choosing Never Ever be lured into their preferred territory
      3.Only ever engage at a time of your choosing
      Never Ever engage to their time frame
      4.Only ever take them on with methods entirely of your choice
      Never ever engage using their methods
      Examples in history whereby leaders strictly applied the rules some not even realising that they were actually rigidly applying the golden rules
      1.Bruce at Bannockburn
      2.Giap in Vietnam both against the French and The US
      3.The IRA after the failure of the GPO
      Rebellion
      Please note all 3 victors engaged,took on & defeated far more powerful foes and one the day of the final conflict
      Of the 3 above only General Giap was aware of the rules but also he studied and applied how the IRA defeated and threw off the yoke of the greatest Imperial power that the Planet has ever known
      Obviously in our modern day situation we shall not go into violent conflict with our Better Together and Westminster foes
      But can adhere to these 4 rules as we engage at all times with them
      If we do then success 100% guaranteed

      Liked by 1 person

  9. I decided to revisit this, and used the most recent Comres poll, and drilled down to the regional voting intention for both constituency and regional list seats. My spreadsheet should calc things correctly, so I’m guessing that most of these seat calc sites are doing a regional calc from a national voting intention (winging it).

    Here are the results (poll was 17th December, so pinch of salt, especially with the past week’s twaddle):

    N.B. – “Indy Majority” is SNP + Greens vs the rest. The ‘others’ were part of the calc. One in Highlands and Islands, which might easily happen, with the odd Independent candidate, and one in the North East (some odd UKIP / Brexit voting intention there? Not sure. Is there some MSP that’s out of a party?)

    So it would seem that with the SNP taking all ten North East seats, they lose their regional list one back to the Tories, who still get four, at least according to this poll.

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