See those last words? They’re being reported all over BBC TV and radio broadcasts. The notion is based on this:
In Scotland, an estimated 45,700 people had the virus in the week to 21 November – one person in every 115, up from one in 155 the previous week. But the ONS says the results are based on modelling and “should be interpreted with caution”.
Why do we need modelling? We know the actual figures. See this graph:
For more accuracy, the 7-day average in Scotland is today 939.1 new cases per day. On November 20th it was 1087.6 and on November 13th it was 1183.6. It’s clearly falling.
What is going on?