Stubborn but much lower yet not ‘the News’

How are doing with this epidemic, BBC Scotland? Oh it’s bad, bad. The SNP Government’s strategy is not working. We might as well go to the pub.

Two weeks into the 5-level system and the number of new cases per day seems stubbornly ‘flat’.

There is some sign of progress, if small, in the 7 day average which was 1 121 yesterday, down 70 from 1 191 last week.

While more significant reductions seem to require longer in Level 3 for the more affected areas, Glasgow and Lanarkshire, the outbreak is, relative to those areas, clearly not growing out of control as in other parts with the unfairly and inaccurately criticised test and protect system playing a big part in holding it.

The increase in new cases is currently between 40% and almost 100% higher in other parts of the UK than in Scotland and still increasing in those areas.

Beyond the UK, Scotland is also doing better.

Even in Germany, the rate is higher.

13 thoughts on “Stubborn but much lower yet not ‘the News’

  1. I know we’re talking up Scotland but our death rate seems to be tracking England’s although we have fewer cases per million. Does this mean our cases are in more vulnerable groups? Spread in age groups looks similar in the two countries on travelling tabby.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The fatality rate is probably fairly closely related to the age profile of the demographics. We have a higher average age in Scotland and some of the older age group categories in Scotland have a greater number per million than in England. To draw a conclusion, we would have to be able to take these factors into account. That is a fairly straightforward task ststistically.

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    2. Yes the death per million on tabby are almost identical to England for last month (but slightly higher for last 5 days). That is assuming that deaths are counted in identical ways.
      Deaths follow cases so we have to see.
      Percentage of positive tests is lower in Scotland (6% v 8%).
      Tomorrow we see the post weekend figures.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I do wonder if we are getting all of the actual correct stats from England. However you look at it, the numbers of infection in England are horrific. Northumberland, low population, high infection rate, compared to Scotland, much bigger population. Yorkshire, NW Eng, all horrendous numbers there too, very high rates of infection. My friends in Northumberland are very sceptical about their lockdown, (‘stupid lockdown rules’) same friend in Tyne and Wear where infection rates are high. It’s like they have somehow not been given all the correct info, do they trust the media, which is very scary. I check at Travelling Tabby every day, for Scotland and then England. Actually even noticed the numbers of infection are huge in the Suffolk/Norfolk area, which is mostly rural? It is as far as I remember anyway. I would think a low population as well. Numbers of deaths is always depressing, and tragic wherever it is. Scotland though does appear to have lowest infection rates for it’s size of population and size of the country itself in fact.

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  2. Numbers today, 717 new infections, very sad there are 6 deaths, but the numbers all over Scotland seem to be going down. There are different views about how long it could be before ‘normal’ life can be resumed. Six months, a year, two years? Looking at the restrictions having such an effect, in a few short weeks, it looks like that needs to be kept in place for as long as needed, and we all need to abide by what the ScotGov and their health advisers recommend. It could be quite a while.
    I saw a poster in a (massive town house) window yesterday, yellow with ‘SNP’ and their logo on it, it’s maybe doing the rounds, underneath the logo, ‘Sorry. No. Pubs’. So we have that sort of imbecilic mentality to deal with sadly, a very few but still not good. These are the people who refuse to distance in shops etc. It’s always the very well off who try to flout the rules because they think htey are immune, they are not as Johnson has proven! ;-/

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