All over BBC Scotland today ‘a leading physician‘ warns us of a ‘perfect storm‘ and appears to be using evidence from England to do so:
Scotland’s NHS is “facing a perfect storm” as staff shortages and a lack of hospital beds hamper efforts to tackle rising numbers of coronavirus cases, according to a leading physician. Prof Jackie Taylor said a “coherent strategy” for testing staff and all hospital patients was needed. She also called for more flexibility for under-pressure services to be able to reduce non-urgent procedures. The Scottish government said plans were in place to deal with peak demand.
The inspiration and the evidence for this storm seems to come not from any Scottish statistics but from the IEA on NHS England:
‘Perfect storm’: NHS facing imminent staffing crisis, study warns Shortage of doctors ‘could leave the nation’s health vulnerable to future crises’, says IEA report.
There is no Scottish evidence to back up Prof Taylor. On lack of beds, see this from BBC Scotland:
ICU surge capacity is at 600 is way above current demand, below 100.
As for general capacity, the above BBC report puts the most recent occupancy figure at 88.1%, nowhere near problematic.
As for the Prof’s rising cases, ICU demand shows signs of plateauing:
The seven day average for admissions was up 18% in last 7 days, up 31.4% in the previous 7 days and up 53% in the 7 before that.
And, overall, the trend is clearly down:
Above, new cases fall to below 1 000 for first time in more than two weeks. Seven day average of 1 162 is down from peak of 1 452 on 26th October, by 20% – steady but sure.
Finally, on ‘staff shortages’, the Prof clearly reads the wrong media.
See these from March 2020:
NHS Scotland has 50% more nurses per head of population than NHS England.
Scotland has 20% more consultants than NHS England
Get on with your day job doc.