Getting a grip and losing one

Even if there is a weekend effect, the number of new cases in Scotland is at worst on a plateau, with 5 days of figures lower than on Tuesday 29th September. Might this be an early sign of the Scottish Government’s restrictions, including no home visits, which began 13 days ago, having an effect?

No ban on home visits was applied in England and infection levels have begun to soar, in the North-West.

The sharp increase in the last two days are, in part, due to delays in reporting. Had they been recorded when they happened, the apparent plateau from the 29th September to 2nd October would be replaced by an upward slope.

How this fits with the ONS claim two days ago, that the rise in cases in England may be ‘levelling off’ escapes me.

6 thoughts on “Getting a grip and losing one”

  1. How can we be sure? How many reporting ‘glitches’ are still in the system. UK gov seemed unduly worried even when the figures looked like a plateau. Of course they know stuff even when it is not reported.


  2. Because of the ‘jumps’ in reported cases on Mondays at the beginning of the lockdown, I think that recording of cases on Saturdays and Sundays seems to have been being done for several months recently, because the data for these days and Mondays seem more consistent with trends earlier in the week.

    BBC Scotland and the other media rarely report on ‘test and trace’ data for Scotland, seeming to prefer to use the reports about England and to dogwhistle that things are as bad here. I hear some neighbours and friends, ones who are generally well-disposed to the SG, saying that ‘test and trace’ is NOT WORKING. So, the ‘dogwhistling’ seems to be getting through.

    By using the undifferentiated term ‘government’ and by giving as much time to reporting the restriction rules in England as to Scotland, the BBC are clearly seeking to obfuscate and to damn the SG by association. And, of course, the smugly self-proclaimed ‘progressives’ of the Guardian, New Statesman, Channel 4 News etc. churn out the line ‘Scotland is no better’.


    1. At the end of the day when the referee finally blows his whistle and ends the political and propaganda game called covid 19
      There Shall be a result upon the scoreboard
      That shall clearly show the miserable failings of England
      And the magnificent performance against all the odds of Scotland
      Unfortunately the goals scored are in the form of infections,serious economic consequences, long term debilitating health issues of survivors and the most awful of all the completely avoidable loss of most of the lives of those that fell and mostly due to none other than political dogma
      But such can never be laid upon the doorstep of Nicola
      Who has punched way way above her weight and with one hand firmly secured behind her back
      There is one thing history always tells us
      And firstly it is the Victor that tells the story and that Victor is the virus for Now
      But time always blows away the fog and that is no matter what The Truth is Outed
      The Statistics in these matters are the irrefutable truth and the winds that blow during the 2 nd wave shall truly clear the fog
      And for Westminster that shall prove fatal as the mist will be gone as we stand with the pencil in the ballot box of Holyrood 2021
      And that is the very real scoreboard Westminster cannot possibly avert their gaze from


  3. I heard on a news bulletin today that the reason for the missing data was that it is compiled on an Excel spreadsheet. Anyone with any working knowledge of Excel can tell you that it has a finite limit (1,048,576 rows by 16,384 columns), which may appear massive, but the UK Gov’t model needs to have enough capacity to deal potentially with 10s of millions of cases. IT Professionals advised against use of Excel and for the use of mainframe databases(s) with greater capacity and better security, but were ignored, possibly on the basis that were “experts” and not to be trusted.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I wish they’d employ me to set this sort of thing up.

      I’m certainly eligible – I’m not a techy – certainly not an expert, I suffer from dyscalculia so could make a pig’s ear of the stats without any effort whatsoever and I’d be cheaper. How do I apply? đŸ˜€


      1. iusedtobeenglish
        Dominic Cummings has became aware of your posting and a magnificent job offer is in the post subject to interview
        If you attend such interview Then i strongly suggest you conduct and present in a daft a manner as possible
        If you want to earn good money for old rope
        Good luck

        Liked by 1 person

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