Covid-19 under control in Scotland

BBC Scotland had the above and The Sun splashed this headline:

SPREADING  Coronavirus Scotland: Huge spike in Scots coronavirus cases with 123 more overnight – including 78 in area of cluster

At first, you might think Scotland has reason to worry in the way they undoubtedly do in Spain, many other parts of Europe and in several English cities, where there is a significant surge in community infection.

That’s the key point. The surge in cases in Scotland is a predictable consequence of the outbreak in a single food factory2 Sisters in Coupar Angus.

It is not a surge in community infection and will not be once contact tracer teams can contain it.

Contact tracers are at work now and we have every reason to expect they will achieve the same result as they have already achieved in Aberdeen.

Look at the number of new cases today:

Community infection across the country is very low with only the Tayside cluster and the much smaller Glasgow/Coatbridge cluster (12 today), caused by a house party, standing out. Looking at the figures over the last 7 days and comparing them with those above for today, you can see how quickly the Aberdeen and the Glasgow/Coatbridge clusters have been contained:

Looking at the graph below showing the trend, you can see that once the Aberdeen, Tayside and Glasgow/Coatbridge outbreaks are removed the background community infection level would fall dramatically

Don’t panic.

2 thoughts on “Covid-19 under control in Scotland

  1. In England, between 6 and 12 August, 6616 new people tested positive for covid19. This is an increase of 27% over the previous week.

    Of these 4803 were put into the tracing system between 6 and 12 August. A delay in processing meant that 681 people did not have cases put into the tracing system until after 12 Aug.

    78.8 % of the 4803 were traced and asked to provide details of contacts. 16,897 people were identified as coming into close contact with the number of newly infected traced. Of these, 71.3% were traced and asked to self isolate.

    There is no information available about how long it took to do the tracing work or what checks, if any, were done to see how many people were self-isolating.

    I guess it is pretty useless tracing people after a week of delay.Rough and ready calculations suggest that the initial trace, this week, finds about 57% of those newly infected. A lot of infection not being found. No indication (or knowledge?) of those self-isolating.

    Are we managing and recording self-isolation in Scotland?

    Liked by 2 people

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.