As Aberdeen spike eases, infections in England surge to more than twice that in Scotland

With ten times the population, the infection rate would be 480 if all things were equal, but it was 988 yesterday, an increase on a sunday!

The Scottish level, dramatically swollen by the Aberdeen outbreak, can be expected to fall back to a 7 day average of less than 20 but the curve in England may be up again, taking us back to the 5 to 1 ratio used by the FM.

4 thoughts on “As Aberdeen spike eases, infections in England surge to more than twice that in Scotland

  1. Yes, 22 cases in Aberdeen city yesterday and 5 in Aberdeenshire.

    Infection survey pilot for England & Wales out on 7 August is here

    “During the most recent week (27 July to 2 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.68 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 1.17) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,700 new cases per day.

    Modelling shows that the incidence rate has increased since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June, but there is evidence this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.”

    Difference between what modelling says and what testing finds???


  2. Certainly seems England is struggling to reduce infection rates, disgraceful Tory government mishandling the whole thing.

    Re, schools, if it were my choice I’d delay that until the English school holidays are over. There are still many coming into Scotland for their summer break, not going abroad as they normally would.
    It just seems to make more sense in waiting that bit longer, lower chance of community spread of infection?

    Fingers crossed for Scotland anyway.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I noticed in the report on new cases in today’s Herald that Shetlend has had its first case since April and there appears to be a connection to the Aberdeen outbreak. A bit concerning if it is connected.


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