Updated: Cybernat statistician ‘rebukes’ Sturgeon for understating Covid-19 gap with ‘England’

They rebuked her here, they rebuked her there, they rebuked her everywhere. Hell hath no fury like a Unionist able to join in a pile-on to rebuke the First Minister.

Had she used the stats she used, in an essay for me, I’d have advised a qualifying statement or two to explain their provenance but rebuking? No. No rebuking here.

However, since then, the Tusker’s own statistician, Dr Mark Mycard has rebuked her, before I could stop him, because she has seriously understated the extend to which the infection level in other parts of the UK is higher than that in Scotland.

Using the ONS estimates presented by none other than the PM yesterday and our own NRS data, we can now repeat that infection levels in England are not just FIVE times higher but 16 TIMES HIGHER!

The PM announced yesterday that based on the ONS estimates, there are now 4 900 new infections each day in England.

Updated after advice from Alex: The Scottish Government estimate is now 30 cases per day:

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-11/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-11/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-11/govscot%3Adocument/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-11.pdf

https://spice-spotlight.scot/2020/07/29/coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland/

Scotland has one tenth of the population so scaling the rate here up you might expect 300 for England but it’s 4 900, 16 times higher!

10 thoughts on “Updated: Cybernat statistician ‘rebukes’ Sturgeon for understating Covid-19 gap with ‘England’”

  1. Echoes of Glenn Campbell on the Fife antisemitic trail with the “They rebuked her here, the rebuked her there” line….
    As I understood it the Stats Watchdog’s rebuke was that the publication from which the FM quoted had not blessed by them as peer-reviewed, not that the figures were accurate or inaccurate.
    PS – Just noticed the typo in the quote, “They rebuked her here, theY rebuked her there”

    Liked by 1 person

  2. You are comparing positive tests in scotland with an infections estimate in england
    SG estimate is 40 infections / day . I think the 5 times is roughly right.

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  3. Where is this 4,900 infections coming from? It it an estimate based on percentage of positive tests? Does someone have a source other than that of Cummings mouth.
    All the data i have points to 814 new cases in England yesterday and 880 for the British Occupied Territories.

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    1. So it in an estimation.

      ‘During the most recent week (20 to 26 July 2020), we estimate there were around 0.78 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 4,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,200 to 8,100).’

      Why he added 700 cases is anybodies guess.

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

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    1. From same article
      “Since Scotland started pursuing an ‘elimination’ strategy, infections declined and are now estimated to be seven to 10 times fewer per capita than in England,”

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