Covid death rate in England 806 (80.6) times higher* than Scotland

*England does of course have ten times the population so, per head of population, the rate is ‘only80.6 times higher.

Of course, when BBC UK seeks comfort in comparisons with the death or infection rates in larger countries such as the USA or Brazil, the crude levels are much more newsworthy. Per head of population the death rate in the ‘UK’ is 30% higher than in the US.

The more useful, infection rate, in the last 7 days, for Scotland is 9.7.

Professor Bauld has drawn our attention to more accurate ONS estimates for England than those being used in the media to suggest the rate is around 5 times higher than in Scotland:

During the most recent week (6 July to 12 July), we estimate there were around two new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals in the community population in England, equating to around 1,700 new cases per day (95% confidence interval: 700 to 4,200).

On this basis, the infection rate would be 170 times higher in England or, per head, 17 times higher.

Readers will remember Gina Davidson (Lab), Ian Murray (Lab), Gordon Brewer (SiU) and endless others telling us that Scotland’s death rate is the worst in the world, or the second worst or the third worst or………….

14 thoughts on “Covid death rate in England 806 (80.6) times higher* than Scotland

  1. Outside of hospitals PHE are counting any death of someone who had a positive test regardless of how long ago the test was, as a covid death. In Scotland there is a 28 day limit so the deaths from covid in England may be slightly overestimated or those in Scotland underestimated.
    Either way the excess deaths are the real measure.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Get ready for this to be used as an ad-hominem excuse for why England’s figures are higher.

      Of course what it actually shows is the Tories gross incompetence to have got the data wrong in the first place!

      Liked by 3 people

      1. BBC have been reporting that the 28-day rule is being applied in Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland but not in England.
        It is suggested that this should not be so and that there should be uniformity across the UK.
        Since the desired single system is not stated by anyone, may it be inferred that the three devoled administrations should change their wicked ways?

        Liked by 5 people

      2. The story is being spun to detract from England high mortality rate.
        In this way, it is being suggested “things are not as bad as the media is painting”.
        Boris has already pointed the finger at NHS England being “too slow”.
        He has distanced himself from his science/medical advisors.
        He is not putting the onus for viral control onto industry and English local government.
        He claims the 4 nations are working well together, while the Welsh FM has stated he has not had contact with the “Minister for the Union” since May.

        Liked by 4 people

    2. I agree. This would be fine if they were going to use this just to fudge their figure of ‘only’40,640 deaths., as against 2491 “You see, it’s less than that, really”.

      I can then see them taking our NRS figure of 4187 and comparing against their ‘revised’ figure to show we’re doing worse! Maybe I’m being s-cynical, but I don’t think they’ll even mention excess deaths. Unless it’s to say “but they would have died anyway, they just did it in a bunch…”

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Thought you might find this article interesting from today’s Otago Daily Times
    concerning managed isolation NZ style.

    Surprised by ‘militarylike’ process on arrival in country
    Dunedin woman Annie Robinson is in managed isolation in an Auckland hotel after arriving from London on July 4. She talked Emma Perry through what happens to returning New Zealanders after they land.
    Otago Daily Times18 Jul 2020
    WHEN Annie Robinson arrived in Auckland after travelling to England to attend her mother’s funeral, she was surprised at the ‘‘quite militarylike’’, but nevertheless reassuring, level of organisation that greeted her.

    ‘‘It hadn’t even occurred to me how regimented it would be.’’

    The 300 passengers on her Air New Zealand flight were given new masks every four hours during their 40hour flight via Hong Kong.

    Once they landed in Auckland, the passengers got off the plane and were asked to form a socially distanced queue, before being assessed by a team of health officials.

    ‘‘They saw the vulnerable, families and elderly first, and when we got to the front [of the line] we answered a series of questions about our health and travels by four suitedup officials, then had our temperature taken.

    ‘‘There was no way you could have got off a flight and not gone through that system. The whole area was barricaded.’’

    Anyone showing symptoms of Covid19 or thought to potentially have the virus was separated and taken to a separate quarantine hotel.

    Once through Customs, the group were transported by bus, sitting at an appropriate distance from each other, to managed isolation at the Waipuna Hotel.

    ‘‘There were very small numbers of us on the buses and we were taken to the hotel.’’

    When they arrived, a few were let off at a time and led into the hotel to be processed.

    ‘‘They took our details and processed us. We were given a welcome pack about managed isolation, which had everything you need to know, and a welfare pamphlet.’’

    Tested on days 3 and 12 of her stay, she found the organisation of facilities and the process was ‘‘impeccable’’, Mrs Robinson, a property manager for Presbyterian Support, said.

    ‘‘It is strange and quite surreal to look out and see a 2mhigh fence and know you can’t leave, but you’re well fed and well looked after.

    ‘‘It’s quite militarylike but it’s reassuring, and I think the fact that a small number have been stupid is disproportionate when you think about the thousands going through the system.

    ‘‘I don’t think people need to be concerned.’’

    Before the 55yearold left the hotel, she had been told she would have a final health check and be given a form proving she had completed two weeks in isolation.

    ‘‘It doesn’t end when you leave the facility. We have to come up with an exit plan and give the names and numbers of who will pick us up and [details of] our complete journey back to our homes.’’

    Mrs Robinson had organised her own travel back to Dunedin today. She was looking forward to hugging her husband and two teenage sons upon her return.

    Liked by 5 people

  3. BBC ‘s Radio Station in Scotland 9.46am

    Report on Covid-19 in India by Rahul Tandon

    “The death toll *in India is much lower than for example in Scotland ”

    He probably means the death rate per head of population .
    However he was comparing a disaster hitting India and whilst talking to a Scottish audience chose to compare India with Scotland rather than UK or England which has a higher infection and death rate.

    * not sure if he said toll or rate

    Liked by 2 people

  4. It’s amazing how much a wee full stop can make a difference there!

    Interesting the account of quarantine in NZ. Would that be possible to do in Scotland? We don’t have those powers, and no doubt the purse strings are stretched to say the least due to Covid19, English imposed austerity, and cuts to the Scottish ‘budget’ ( taxes removed from the people of Scotland, then crumbs thrown back, be grateful you sweaty Jocks lol!’) from England.

    We also do not have our own army etc, so a military operation would only be possible at the behest of the English government, and they must be laughing their dirty rancid socks off right now at Scotland being so limited in what their government can actually practically do, to stave off a second wave.

    Good to see so many wearing masks in shops, but, am I the only one that uses the provided hand sanitiser, and, people put on masks with their dirty hands, then remove them after shopping, with dirty hands. I don’t get it, are people that vain and illogical as well? Just a wee Saturday gripe…
    I’m off out with my new tartan mask on, I don’t care what people think, it also helps keep the hayfever at bay.
    I have to yank more nettle roots out, 😦 and sow some spinach 🙂
    Have a good Saturday all.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Just a thought but how’s the “additional powers to LAs” thing going to work? If ScotGov adopted that would each Scottish Region be able to declare lockdown/quarantining for its own lands? Simultaneously? It is, after all, a 4 Nations Approach.

      Of course, some Tory and/or Labour Councils might decide not to do it. But I doubt the people they should have been protecting would forget that come election time…

      Hope you’re going to soak the nettles and turn them into a stinky but effective fertiliser BTW. 🙂


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