Dear Gordon, ‘brutal fact’ is covid-19 deaths in Scotland are currently 24 times lower per head of population than in England

On Good Mourning Scotland this morning, Gordon Brewer interrupted Professor Bauld to shout:

You, you, you, sorry to interrupt [no he isn’t] Linda but, you say that, but the brutal fact is we’ve had something like 4 000 deaths which is about a tenth of the UK. It’s about a population share of the deaths in the UK.

As a consequence of the 4 Nations approach Scotland did suffer massive loss of life but since the Scottish Government strategy kicked in, both cases and deaths have fallen steadily until, as we see in the graph above, the 7 day average death rate in Scotland is 0.3 per day (less than one) and 71.3 per day in England.

So, the death rate that matters now, in Scotland, is crudely, 240 times lower, and per head of population, is 24 times lower than in England.

That’s NEWS!

15 thoughts on “Dear Gordon, ‘brutal fact’ is covid-19 deaths in Scotland are currently 24 times lower per head of population than in England”

  1. Alas!
    Gordon “I dont quite understand” Brewer doesnt quite understand how Scotland can possibly be better than down south.
    How can this be ? Against the laws of nature–certainly against the tenets of the BBC.

    Poor Gordo—he wont can sleep tonight without his sooky blanket of Brit Nat superiority.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Just noticed–how could I be so obtuse?

    Gohdon Brewah initials are –ta dah–G.B.

    Perhaps he thinks he is the very embodiment of the British State (without Norn Irrnd).

    G…….ohdon B……..rewah.

    Lucky for him he wasnt born in the USSR.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Differences across the UK are not a new discovery: BBC Scotland should have knowledge of and appreciate the significance of difference by now. For goodness sake, as early as 18 May even the Daily Mail had noticed something distinctive – and unfavourable – about the statistics on England’s Covid-19 experience.

    Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8330197/England-suffered-coronavirus-deaths-Italy-peak-outbreak.html

    It reported: “Another EU monitoring project has shown England has had the worst excess death rate in Europe during the coronavirus pandemic.”

    The Mail explained: “EuroMOMO assigns each country a ‘Z-score’, showing the deviation from a five-year average of excess deaths. Many countries, including Spain, Germany, France and Italy, have recorded a spike in excess deaths during the pandemic. But figures collected by EuroMOMO show England performing worse than Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or any other European country.”

    Has BBC Scotland ever mentioned EuroMOMO data?

    And the Mail re-enforces the message: “England’s Z-score peaked at 44.1 during the week that ended April 19, according to the monitoring project, with Spain in second place at 34.7. The other three UK nations had a far lower Z-score, with Wales peaking at 19.3, Scotland at 17.3 and Northern Ireland at 8.5.”

    That was after the peak of the epidemic in the UK (so far) so nothing has happened to alter these differentials.

    It is now widely recognised that ‘excess deaths’ is the only mortality statistic which is: (a) relevant ; (b) ‘reliable’ – i.e. less vulnerable to obfuscation; and (c) capable of being used for cross-comparison between areas.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. The excellent tracker information provided online by the Financial Times is doing a much better job of providing quality information than the BBC.

    The FT provides graphs of number of excess deaths in 2020 to date for c.21 nation states. In Europe only Spain (at 56%) has had a higher percentage of excess deaths than the UK in the FT’s sample of countries. Smaller northern European countries and Switzerland have managed their outbreaks on this metric substantially better than the UK.

    The FT considers why the outcome on mortality rates between countries is so variable. It states: “Examining the cause of the high death rates in certain countries, the strongest link appears at this stage to be between the date of a country’s lockdown and the probable number of infections that already existed when restrictions were applied.”

    It quotes Natalie Dean, assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida. She says some countries such as Italy had “bad luck” as they were caught by the virus early on. However, this gave other countries, such as the UK, time to learn lessons, Dean adds.

    “I was very surprised by the delayed response in the UK. Given what we were observing in Italy at the time and that the UK was on the exact same trajectory, had the same very steep rise, I was surprised to see discussion about waiting. There was an immediate need to stop what was happening,” she said. “For London, in particular, it was clear that there was a steep rise, so it’s reasonable to think earlier intervention would have saved lives.”

    From a quick ‘think’, it seems to me there are at least three key areas of government responsibility and necessary authority involved in effecting a strict lockdown of a nation-state: (i) the control of external borders to reduce importation of the virus; (ii) the power to enforce closure of business premises and cancel large ‘events’; linked to (iii) fiscal and associated borrowing powers to provide the required financial support for affected businesses and their employees.

    In the UK these powers in combination lie with Westminster. The ‘surprise’ expressed by Professor Dean at the tardiness of the UK to lockdown can only be ‘surprise’ at Westminster’s response.

    Source: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

    In this context, the relative performance of NI, Scotland and Wales relative to England on the ‘excess deaths’ metric is remarkable. BBC Scotland is NOT performing a public service if it is seeking to airbrush this out of its broadcasts.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Bbc Radio in Scotland ” Off The Ball” about 5.15pm

    Tam Cowan backed up by Stuart Cosgrove Talked up The FM’s handling of the Pandemic. . . . . AND riduculed Jackass Carcrash’s interview on Sky. . .

    Couldn’t believe my ears! Have they been reading this blog!
    What’s going on at the BBC?

    Liked by 2 people

  6. In England’s Union there are essentially two public health policies in operation. with respect to this health crisis.
    One which is based on the principle that the state has a responsibility for maintaining public health in order to protect lives and the other which is only interested in how much money it is going to cost them.
    The outcomes of these divergent policies are,certainly at present,clear.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. England cases are rising. UK Gov seems to have found cases in Herefordshire suddenly! They don’t seem to know where the new cases are until several days later.

    Like

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