https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53233974

Once free of the 4 Nations approach (herd immunity), the First Minister and her team went hard at it with a strict lock-down based on clear, consistent and transparent communications. It has worked.

Now, research by Professor Kao at Edinburgh University has estimated that had we not done so, the total coronavirus-related death toll might have been nearer 40 000 than the 4 000 we have.

Prof Kao and his team’s modelling suggested:

“With no lockdown and some restrictions, Scotland could have experienced a slightly larger outbreak, possibly with 7,280 deaths, or a far larger outbreak which could have killed nearly 39,613.”