In the Aberdeen Evening Express, this morning (?), we read:
Mistakes were made by the Scottish Government from the start of the coronavirus outbreak, the leader of the Scottish Tories has said. Jackson Carlaw’s comments come in the same week as a report from academics at Glasgow, Edinburgh and St Andrews universities suggests that “a lack of robust measures” to stop travellers from other countries entering Scotland may have “accelerated the course of the outbreak”.
Those of you already wide awake when you read this will have spotted at least two things.
First, Carlaw is correct in that the Scottish Government, under pressure from Unionists like himself, was too prepared to give the 4 Nations approach a try. As they found out soon, it meant, among other things, being told what the English Government had already decided to do and being excluded from PPE supply chains.
Now, a month into divergence, infections, deaths and the R number have all fallen dramatically below those in England. I feel sure Carlaw will applaud these achievements resulting from reversing mistakes at the start.
In the second sentence, the Express draws attention to a mistake the Scottish Government complained about but could not reverse because of the limits of devolution. Given that all of the strains of coronavirus have been traced back to mainland Europe, it seems likely that the failure to screen and to quarantine infected arrivals, for months after the outbreak, is almost entirely to blame for the deaths in Scotland. I feel sure that Carlaw, known for his sense of fair play, must have condemned that error by his colleagues in London but I can’t seem to find the reference.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
The research, as it makes clear, has not yet been peer reviewed.These are the conclusions it makes.
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507
“The key conclusions of our analysis are as follows:
The UK epidemic comprises a very large number of importations due to inbound international travel2. We detect 1356 independently-introduced transmission lineages, however, we expect this number to be an under-estimate.
The speed of detection of UK transmission lineages via genome sequencing has increased through time.
Many UK transmission lineages now appear to be very rare or extinct, as they have not been detected by genome sequencing for >4 weeks.
The rate and source of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 lineages into the UK changed substantially and rapidly through time. The rate peaked in mid-March and most introductions occurred during March 2020.
We estimate that ≈34% of detected UK transmission lineages arrived via inbound travel from Spain, ≈29% from France, ≈14% from Italy, and ≈23% from other countries. The relative contributions of these locations were highly dynamic.
The increasing rates and shifting source locations of SARS-CoV-2 importation were not fully captured by early contact tracing.
Our results are preliminary and further analyses of these data are ongoing.”
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The Sunday Herald has a story -front page no less – about a family claiming to possibly be the ones who brought the coronavirus to Scotland after returning from a skiing holiday in N Italy in mid-Feb.
My reaction: have you had an antibody test? That was not my only reaction but it will do for now.
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Speaking of “mistakes” by government.
https://www.independentsage.org/test-trace-missing-75-of-cases/
“The Independent SAGE welcomes the government’s decision to release the first figures from its Test & Trace system but it is extremely concerned that it is picking up contacts from only 25% of estimated symptomatic infections.
The government’s own SAGE committee says that 80% of the contacts of all symptomatic cases must be found and isolated in order to stop the virus spreading further.
According to the committee’s calculations, the government’s Test and Trace picked up only one quarter of cases in its week, well below what is required to manage the spread of the virus.
Independent SAGE report on Test, Trace and Isolate, released on Tuesday, argued that the current system is not fit for purpose. This has been borne out by the figures published today. The start of any system The system is still in its infancy and, as currently constituted, is not ready to support the current wider relaxation of the lockdown rules. This risks future spikes if not addressed urgently.
The committee’s report, chaired by Sir David King, urged the government to radically overhaul the current system and to pass the management of the Test and Trace system – which it says should be renamed Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, Support – from private contractors to local public health directors.
Independent SAGE analysed the figures released today that showed 8,117 individuals testing positive for COVID-19 between May 28 and June 3 were referred for contact tracing. Only 5,407 (67%) were reached and asked to provide details of recent contacts. ONS surveillance data however suggested that there were at least 23,000 new symptomatic cases during that time period, meaning that only about a quarter of symptomatic cases had been found by the Test and Trace system.
Matt Hancock said today that 85% of contacts had been traced. This is deeply misleading as it relates only to the 5407 individuals who were reached by contact tracers and ignores the 75% of new cases that were simply not found.
Sir David King, Chair of Independent SAGE said: “It is of course reasonable to expect that the first week of a new programme like this will have teething problems however these figures are alarming. What is of particular concern is that we are continuing to see the country coming out of lockdown before a fit for purpose – let alone world beating – Test, Track and Trace system is up and running.”
The full Independent SAGE Interim report is here”
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Hmmmm..
“Ian Campbell
@Ian_Campbell_
·
29 May
These are the locations of new UK #covid19 cases given by
@PHE_uk
.
They don’t publish the locations of around 64% of cases because the tests are carried out by “commercial partners”.
To open schools etc, we need to know where new cases are.”
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Even a stopped clock tells the correct time once a day , Carlot manages to get it right once in a blue moon. He really should stick to purveying subprime horseless carriages to the gullible .
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“I feel sure that Carlaw, known for his sense of fair play, must have condemned that error by his colleagues in London but I can’t seem to find the reference.”
I like it :-)))
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The journalist, Lewis Goodall used to work for Sky News, I think. He is now Policy Editor
@BBCNewsnight. “I cover politics, policy, economics and government in the UK and beyond,” he says.
I think he may be an asset to Newsnight. Here is a link to a series of tweets he made about his exploration of the impact of covid19 (which he seems to call “cover”) on sufferers from dementia. It is, I think, a very good piece.He describes the situation in a few English care homes. What he says is in the main also applicable to Scotland.
I was a main, long – term carer (24/7) for my father for 16 years while he had Alzheimer’s. Goodall’s piece is really useful. here are a few bits of it and the link.
“Dementia sufferers are dying at an alarming rate in this epidemic, one of the worst affected groups.
These are the reasons why and what could change it. (thread)…
…app 42% of all those who have died in a care home setting have Alzheimer’s or dementia.
25% of those who have died from cover [covid] overall have Dementia
Overall excess deaths for dementia patients have rocketed- 83% above normal in England in April.
And this isn’t just about their vulnerability. Data from @alzheimerssoc and shared exclusively with Newsnight shows 79% of care home managers feel lockdown is damaging their dementia residents’ physical health and wellbeing.
There are a number of reasons for these figs
The first is there isn’t enough dementia specific guidance for care homes
Eg: the primary virus containment method in care homes is confinement of residents to their rooms
This is basically impossible for dementia patients…….
………It won’t be a case of simply allowing visitation- but there is a recognition that blanket prohibition of visitation for dementia sufferers is very, very damaging and probably needs to be altered. This goes back to the point of needing dementia specific guidance from DHSC.”
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