There are two widely popular myths here.
First, there is the myth that Nicola Sturgeon’s presentation skills are concealing an actual failure on the ground. As the awful truth of what has happened in Tory England emerges, Scotland’s apparently superior performance cannot be accepted. From the Herald’s Macwhirter to the FT and now the often very good, Independent, otherwise informed media commentators are promoting the inaccurate statements from Scottish Labour and Conservatives. It’s wrong and I’ll repeat the evidence why it’s wrong below.
Second, there is the myth that Scotland’s death rate is the third highest in the world.
I’ll do the second one first:
Scotland’s actual death rate is lower than most in Europe
The Scottish data include unconfirmed cases where covid-19 was mentioned as a contributory factor. This is unreliable. Much more reliable are excess deaths, z scores, using ONS data.
At Progressive Pulse, Professor Sean Danaher provides an update on comparisons across countries of excess deaths using z scores. These standardise data on excess deaths by scaling by the standard deviation of deaths. Professor Danaher presents the average z scores between weeks 10 to 20.
- England 19.89
- Scotland 7.63
- Wales 7.07
- Northern Ireland 3.31
- Ireland 0.84
“England does extremely badly on this measure, and Wales looks slightly better than Scotland. Northern Ireland does well, but the clear leader using this metric is Ireland. The English figures are more than twice as bad as Scotland and Wales and far worse than NI or IE. Scotland’s score is 5th in those European countries measuring things reliably.
- England 19.89
- Spain 11.9000
- Belgium 11.2700
- Italy 8.5300
- Scotland 7.63
- Sweden 6.9000
- Norway 0.1900
https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS
‘In the world?’ No one knows of course and the Independent writer knows that too but you can be sure Scotland’s death rate will be one of the lowest in the world.
Scotland’s better performance is real
How many times have I had to list this real evidence that the Scottsih Government HAS a better ‘covid record?’ So, once more:
- Higher recovery rate
- Lower excess mortality rate
- Mortality among BAME groups is lower than in ‘white’ population
- Death rate in care homes is lower than in England
- Mortality among key workers is lower:
- Assessment centres protected GP surgeries
- Better staffing
- Cleaner hospitals
- Better Government leadership
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
To be fair perhaps the Indy had a slow readers letters day, so Martin Redfern’s epistle was included, but as you rightly say a modern myth some seem very keen to promote despite all evidence proving it bunkum.
Was surprised to see Mr Redfern’s Melrose location even receives the Courier (2nd letter down) which claims the FM is “developing a Messiah complex”
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/readers-letters/1356134/readers-letters-nicola-sturgeon-will-be-with-us-for-years-to-come/
and the Scotsman
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/letters/its-wrong-time-push-independence-letters-2878385
Frankly amazed he finds time to write with so many papers in his door, clearly a busy little b… Perhaps one of Pennington’s coven ?
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Yes, Bob, he is indeed one of Pennington’s coven.
Check out the ‘Green Ink Gang’, a blog on Wings which was recently referenced by this very site.
Allan Sutherland is there, as are Keith Howell, Hugh Pennington, Jill Stephenson, Pamela Nash, Victor Clements and a number of others who are regular writers to various letters’ pages.
Their goal is to flood our newspapers with SNP/bad.
The email featured in the Wings article includes a highly revealing contribution from Martin Redfern. along with others which have proved to be very embarrassing for the Scotland in Union brigade, as they can’t deny their own existence as an organised group sharing records of letters printed, reference material and covering for each other when they are on holiday.
Their stated aim is to give, “journalists the confidence to write pro-union/anti-SNP articles.”
I wasn’t aware such confidence was lacking.
They don’t engage in debate and rarely reply to responses challenging their assertions. Unsurprising, since much of the rebuttals are based on articles featured here, on Wings, WGD, and elsewhere, based on inconvenient facts they dare not challenge.
The only direct response I’ve had from Martin Redfern in the Courier’s letters page was in response to my description of him as one of the heads of Scotland in Union. He denied this, naming Pamela Nash as head of the organisation.
Martin seems to believe you can’t lead unless you have an official title.
I have a few to offer him, but I don’t think he’d appreciate them.
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Alas, the “truth”, like Scotland, is a far-away country of which they know little.
And. as they cannot be bothered to do the “journalist” thing and do some actual research, they prefer to just make things up.
So much more convenient, pleases the Editor, Alister “Union” Jock, MI5, their personal bias (why else would they write this garbage day after day) and all the rest.
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John, it bugged me where I’d come across Martin Redfern’s (who author of the featured letter) name and eventually found it in your article on the 5th June, https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/06/05/the-bbcs-favourite-bug-scientist-and-the-dirty-tricks-of-his-rarely-mentioned-anti-independence-activist-group/
You need to open the image of the SiU email to see it clearly but the first name in the cc list is the self-same Martin Redfern…
So your article is not correcting myths in circulation but exposing the deliberate propaganda in which SiU are actively engaged circulating in the media…
😉
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I always wondered at the wisdom of including deaths that were not directly linked to Covid , it certainly increases our death rates , was this wise ? .
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I agree, John.
Unless the same metrics are used universally, then it lets the media give a false impression, by omission or commission.
And that is precisely what they have done.
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If it is a potential contributory factor in the death it is recorded on the certficate, the Scottish numbers are as accurate as they can be, irrespective of what the propagandists might make of it.
But do bear in mind the flip-side to your concern, the relationship to the real toll by way of excess deaths.
The gap between Covid attributed and excess deaths in Scotland is significant, cause unknown.
That gap in England is massive because they actively sought to minimise Covid numbers, and shortly the manipulators will have to explain how they got Covid deaths in England so dramatically wrong.
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Changes to how deaths were recorded and attributed during a pandemic was just one of the 17 recommendations( not failings as reported by the media) which resulted from the 2015 Silver swan resilience exercise.
These changes were in place and the system in used for the NRS figures in March.
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Way back on 8 April here, btl I noted:
“Just been reading more from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) about death statistics.
Source: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/vital-events/bases-on-which-figures-for-cod-can-be-produced.pdf
“… figures for a particular cause of death can be produced on THREE BASES:
• ‘UNDERLYING CAUSE’ – cases where it was the disease or injury which initiated the chain of morbid events leading directly to death, or was the accident/act which produced the fatal injury;
• ‘CONTRIBUTORY FACTOR’’ – cases where it was not the underlying cause of death, but it did contribute to the occurrence of the death – e.g. it did not cause the death, but may have hastened its occurrence;
• ‘ANY MENTION’ – i.e. whether it appeared to be the underlying cause of the death, or was just a factor which contributed to, or may have hastened, the occurrence of the death.”
The same source adds : “Figures are normally provided on the basis of the ‘underlying cause’. Every death has just one ‘underlying cause’ code, and so is counted only once in figures which are produced on the ‘underlying cause’ basis.”
“A death may have several other causes coded as contributory factors, so could be counted several times in figures which are produced on the ‘contributory factor’ or ‘any mention’ bases. For that reason, figures are normally provided on the basis of the ‘underlying cause’.”
Using the ‘any mention’ criterion seems to me to leave the Covid-19 mortality statistics open to ‘subjective’ judgement where there is no positive test for the virus. Arguably it makes the ‘excess deaths’ statistic during the period THE critical and ONLY robust basis for between ‘settings’ and inter-territorial comparisons.
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You have to ‘admire’ the attempts to compare Scotland unfavourably with other places internationally.
Leaving aside the important issue of the truthfulness of the statistical analysis, there is no acknowledgement of one blindingly obvious difference; unlike Scotland, all the international locations are nation-states enjoying ALL the powers available to government that go with that status.
As for England, we are only too well aware that ‘England as the UK’ is in all practical and legal respects a nation-state – it has access to ALL the powers it requires: its government has acted for England as if the nation-state in its (perceived) best interests without hindrance from the other three nations in the ‘Union’.
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